from MacroScope:

Is a one-way bet on the dollar rising still such a safe bet?

February 4, 2015

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

Borrowing in dollars is like playing "Russian roulette", India's central bank chief Raghuran Rajan said on Bloomberg TV this week.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The once in a 100,000-years event

January 16, 2015

The surprise move Thursday from the Swiss National Bank has had the effect of confusing a lot of people about a lot of things: the SNB’s intentions, the timing, the ancillary effects and who the losers are.

from MacroScope:

Major central banks set to go their own way, with some risk

January 9, 2015

Real interest rates of world's major central banks

Real interest rates of world's major central banks

The world's major central banks have long followed the same general flight path, guided by the economic winds of growth, inflation and financial markets. It has worked pretty well for policymakers in the United States, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom: moving together to tighten or loosen monetary policy makes things more predictable for citizens, businesses and investors. It also serves as buffer to any volatile currency movements, at least among developed economies. But six years after the worst recession in decades, this could be the year central bankers split off and - with some risk - go their own way.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

That escalated quickly

December 19, 2014

It's hard to determine whether the two-day run in the S&P 500 is a sign of an emerging "blow-off" top of the market, where a frenzied rally gives way to several months of weakness (lately, weakness has been measured in hours and minutes, rather than weeks or months), or if it's the sign of investors growing more comfortable with the notion that the Fed's exit from its zero-interest-rate policy that has lasted for several years isn't such a bad thing, and that the economy can handle it.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Hedge fund pool shrinks as assets grow, clients still bet on alpha – Steinbrugge

December 11, 2014

The hedge fund industry is on track to finish out the year both with record assets and a huge chunk of fund closures. Of the 240 funds launched in the third quarter 200 were liquidated, according to data from Hedge Fund Research. Year-to-date through September's end, there were 814 launches and 661 liquidations, HFR data showed.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

That’s a big Twinkie

December 11, 2014

The market’s gyrations are a bit more than many people want to handle this time of the year, but it’s a time when stupid stuff happens, and lack of liquidity combined with concerns about the world economy are raising questions that, essentially, seem like the same question: Has this equity-market surge come too far, and are we due for the “big” Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man-sized thing that everyone has been anticipating since, well, more than two years now?

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Sell, baby, sell: Sinking oil prices among global headwinds into 2015: Canadian fund manager, US economist

December 10, 2014

The rout in oil will have wider reaching consequences yet.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ decision not to cut production amid slowing demand coupled with large increases in U.S. oil output has skimmed some $40 off a barrel of oil inside of five months.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Equity bull market ongoing as Fed interest rate raise “years away” – Cumberland’s Kotok

December 3, 2014

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high for the third straight day this week. The S&P 500, since breaking the 2,000 level on Oct. 31 has since remained above that level.

from Breakingviews:

Dizzying revolving door risks overdone response

November 20, 2014

By Daniel Indiviglio

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Fed should take “Goldilocks” jobs report with grain of salt; wage growth still main story – Rivkin

November 7, 2014

Friday's jobs report was something that the market could take in stride and the U.S. Federal Reserve could breeze over in its interest rate policy plotting. Even as the unemployment rate sank to a six-year low, wage growth remains stagnant. Wage growth has to become more robust and consistent before the Fed embarks on raising interest rates, most analysts agree.