from MacroScope:

UK pay may be taking off but rates will stay grounded for a while yet

July 2, 2015

The Bank of England is seen through columns in LondonBritish wage growth will outstrip the Bank of England's forecast this year but that doesn't mean the first rate hike will come sooner.

from MacroScope:

UK pay finally on the rise?

June 17, 2015

We’ve been told for years that a meaningful pickup in wages – usually the primary driver of domestic inflation – was required to set the stage for interest rate hikes both in the UK and the U.S.

from Breakingviews:

Fed might fret about emerging market “spillback”

June 16, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Change is in the air

June 8, 2015

We go into the week with the U.S. Treasury market having suffered its worst weekly run in three months; the benchmark 10-year Treasury saw its biggest jump in yield in nearly two years, basically dating back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013.

from Breakingviews:

Cult of central bank transparency is too powerful

May 26, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The road was long, but you ran it (Janet)

May 22, 2015

On an otherwise quiet day for markets, everyone's got their eye on Janet Yellen, who speaks at 1:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT), and it looks like she's going to make a bit of a case for the Federal Reserve to start raising rates in the near-term.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Fed in the red

May 20, 2015

The Federal Reserve's upcoming minutes on Wednesday will serve as something as a precursor of Janet Yellen's coming Friday speech that looks like it will set the tone for the coming Fed meetings and what should be the market's outlook for Fed policy.

from MacroScope:

Still waiting for the great wage rebound

May 7, 2015

AIt’s now been well over a year since the two major central banks most likely to raise interest rates in the near future warned us we should pay attention to pay.

from MacroScope:

Is the dollar taking over the Fed’s job?

May 5, 2015

US trade










While the surge in the greenback since July has turned up in all sorts of economic data, much of it not good, the big one may have just landed.

from MacroScope:

Monetary policy: New T-shirt needed?

May 1, 2015

San Francisco Fed President John Williams  believes deeply that monetary policy is data-dependent, so much so that he has printed the mantra on T-shirts that he is giving away coast to coast. On Friday at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., however, he didn't discuss the current state of U.S. economic data or the stance of monetary policy. Instead, he focused on why forcing the Fed to follow a strict monetary policy rule to make interest rate decisions would be, well, a problem ( It's a view that a number of his colleagues, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have publicly embraced. Monetary policy -- it's independent. Sounds like something you could put on a T-shirt.