from MacroScope:

UK rate rise this year? Possible, but not certain yet

June 13, 2014

M

"It could happen sooner than markets currently expect."

That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.

from MacroScope:

Better U.S. growth and just muddling along both point to low rates for longer

June 10, 2014

UFaith that the U.S. economy may finally be at a turning point for the better appears to be on the rise, as many ramp up expectations for a better Q2 and second half of the year.

from MacroScope:

Prepare for a razor-thin rate cut from the ECB in June. But what will it achieve?

May 9, 2014

RTR3OBCB.jpgA consensus appears to be slowly building for a carpaccio-slice interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next month.

from MacroScope:

Shock now clearly trumps transparency in central bank policymaking

January 29, 2014

The days of guided monetary policy, telegraphed by central banks and priced in by markets in advance, are probably coming to an end if recent decisions around the world are any guide.

from MacroScope:

If at first you don’t succeed… Fed’s Evans sticks to strong forecast despite misses

September 6, 2013

It’s nice to know Federal Reserve officials have a sense of humor about their own forecasting errors. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was certainly humble enough to admit to some recent misses in a speech on Friday .

from MacroScope:

Why is the Reserve Bank of India so quiet on the rupee?

August 23, 2013

 

When nobody's listening, sometimes it pays to shout from the rooftops.

Based on the rupee's daily pasting, the Reserve Bank of India might do well to look to the European Central Bank's strong verbal defense of the euro just over a year ago.

from MacroScope:

Morgan Stanley cuts second quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 0.3 percent

July 18, 2013

The surprising weakness in June housing starts is probably only temporary, according to Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, but the softness in June nonetheless prompted him to cut Morgan Stanley's Q2 GDP estimate to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

from MacroScope:

Regarding second quarter GDP, beware the benchmark revisions!

July 17, 2013

If there ever was a time to discount estimates of an advance GDP report, now is the time, says Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. That's because the first snapshot of U.S. Q2 GDP growth, due out on July 31, will occur alongside the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) comprehensive benchmark revisions.

from MacroScope:

What’s a Fed to do? Taper talk persists despite missed jobs, inflation targets

June 17, 2013

As the Federal Reserve meets this week, unemployment is still too high and inflation remains, well, too low. That makes some investors wonder why policymakers are talking about curtailing their asset-buying stimulus plan. True, job growth has averaged a solid 172,000 net new positions per month over the last year, going at least some way to meeting the Fed’s criteria of substantial improvement for halting bond purchases.

from MacroScope:

Still not thinking the very thinkable on Britain’s future

February 20, 2013

Mark these words. Not only is Britain going to avoid a triple-dip recession, but the economy won’t shrink again as far as the eye can see.