Markets like to tie themselves in knots ahead of Fed decisions. Instead of landing on what's expected, at times of volatility investors instead go in the other direction and start to consider all sorts of wild scenarios on what the slide-rule committee might do instead. But the outlook for the Fed's statement should be pretty straightforward: the Fed is likely to go with what the market expects, and remove its phrase talking about keeping rates at rock-bottom levels for a "considerable time," as it has no reason not to.
It's all over but the dissection of the Fed statement, due later today, which will follow with a Janet Yellen press conference after the U.S. markets get word of whether the Fed did or did not eliminate the "considerable time" bit from its statement that saw markets go into a tizzy all of Tuesday. At this point the market believes that phrase now may *not* be eliminated, which marks the second reversal in about a week on this point. No matter what, somebody is going to be caught leaning in the wrong direction, but if the latest intelligence is that the Fed's statement won't change materially until the October meeting, then the freshest bets are probably in the direction of those betting on that much. So if the statement does cut out that language or modifies it in any way, you could see a selloff in equities, the dollar and bonds.