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from Global Investing:

What’s next? A U.S. downgrade or Spanish bailout?

Jan 16, 2013 16:54 UTC

What will happen first? A U.S. credit rating downgrade or the country's unemployment falling below 7 percent?

Or Spain having no other option but to ask for a bailout?

Bank of America Merrill Lynch asked investors in its monthly fund manager survey what "surprises" they saw coming up first this year.

And the result is: bad news will come first.

A U.S. debt downgrade got the top spot, with more than 35 percent of investors seeing that happen first, with crisis-hit Spain having to ask for more help a close second, at just over 30 percent.

The United States will have to wait a bit longer to cut its unemployment below 7 percent, with only about 12 percent seeing that happening first. Only 10 percent bet on Japan weakening its currency to 100 yen to the dollar and very few chose gold hitting $2,000 an ounce.

from MacroScope:

Fund managers also fall prey to economists’ euro zone bias

Andy Bruce

Sep 4, 2012 08:31 UTC

If Reuters polls onthe euro zone this year have proved anything, it’s that forecasts concerning the future of the currency union really boil down to national bias and not just plain economics.

Last week’s global polls of fund managers proved that’s just as true of investors as it is for analysts.

from Global Investing:

GUEST BLOG: The missing reform in the Kay Review

Joel Dimmock

Jul 26, 2012 10:17 UTC

corporate governance | fund managers | funds | kay review | pension funds

Simon Wong is partner at investment firm Governance for Owners, adjunct professor of law at Northwestern University School of Law, and visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. He can be found on Twitter at @SimonCYWong. The opinions expressed reflect his personal views only.

There is much to commend in the Kay Review final report. It contains a rigorous analysis of the causes of short-termism in the UK equity markets and wide-ranging, thoughtful recommendations on the way forward. Yet, it is surprising that John Kay omitted one crucial reform that would materially affect of the achievability of several of his key recommendations – shortening the chain of intermediaries, eliminating the use of short-term performance metrics for asset managers, and adopting more concentrated portfolios. What’s missing? Reconfiguring the structure and governance of pension funds.

from Global Investing:

SocGen poll unearths more EM bulls in July

Sujata Rao

Jul 12, 2012 09:35 UTC

These are not the best of times for emerging markets but some investors don't seem too perturbed. According to Societe Generale, almost half the clients it surveys in its monthly snap poll of investors have turned bullish on emerging markets' near-term prospects. That is a big shift from June, when only 33 percent were optimistic on the sector. And less than a third of folk are bearish for the near-term outlook over the next couple of weeks, a drop of 20 percentage points over the past month.

These findings are perhaps not so surprising, given most risky assets have rallied off the lows of May. And a bailout of Spain's banks seems to have averted, at least temporarily, an immediate debt and banking crunch in the euro zone. What is more interesting is that despite a cloudy growth picture in the developing world, especially in the four big BRIC economies, almost two-thirds of the investors polled declared themselves bullish on emerging markets in the medium-term (the next 3 months) . That rose to almost 70 percent for real money investors. (the poll includes 46 real money accounts and 45 hedge funds from across the world).

from Global Investing:

Lower rates give no respite to Brazil stocks

Sujata Rao

May 29, 2012 11:30 UTC

In normal times, an aggressive central bank campaign to cut interest rates would provide fodder for stock market bulls. That's not happening in Brazil. Its interest rate, the Selic, has fallen 350 basis points since last August and is likely to fall further at this week's meeting to a record low of 8.5 percent. Yet the Sao Paulo stock market is among the world's worst performers this year, with losses of around 4 percent. That's better than fellow BRIC Russia but far worse than India and China.

Brazil's central bank and government are understandably worried about a Chinese growth slowdown that would eat into Brazilian commodity exports. They are therefore hoping that rate cuts will prepare the domestic economy to take up the slack.

from Global Investing:

March bulls give way to April bears in emerging markets

Reuters Staff

Apr 13, 2012 14:21 UTC

The dust has settled on a scintillating first quarter for emerging markets but the cross-asset rally of the first three months has already run out of steam. A survey by Societe Generale of 69 EM investors shows that over half are bearish -- at least for the near-term.

This marks quite a turn-around from the March survey, when 80 percent of investors declared themselves bullish on emerging markets. What’s more, investors are currently running very little risk and 47 percent of hedge fund respondents (these make up half the survey) feel they are over-invested in EM. (The following graphic shows the findings -- click on it to enlarge)

from Global Investing:

Japan… tide finally turning?

Natsuko Waki

Mar 21, 2012 10:09 UTC

Until recently, when you mentioned "Japan" in the investment context, you could almost hear a collective sigh of disappointment -- it was all about recession, deflation and poor investment returns.

However, sentiment does seem to be finally changing, not least because Tokyo stocks have rallied almost 20 percent since the start of the year, outperforming benchmark world and emerging indexes.