Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Global Investing:

Betting on (expensive and over-owned) Indian equities

How much juice is left in the Indian equity story? Mumbai's share index has raced to successive record highs and has gained 24 percent so far this year in dollar terms as investors have bought into Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform promises.

Foreign investors have led the charge through this year, pouring billions of dollars into the market. Now locals are also joining the party - Indian retail investors who steered clear of the bourse for three years are trickling back in - they have been net investors for 3 months running and last month they purchased Rs 108 billion worth of shares, Citi analysts note. 

Foreigners meanwhile have been moving down the market cap scale, with their ownership of the top 100-500 ranked companies rising from 13% to 15% over the quarter. That's behind the broader BSE500 index's outperformance compared to the Nifty index, Citi said.

Citi earlier this month predicted another 3 percent gains for Indian stocks by year-end. Equity derivatives indicate that is feasible - stock exchange data shows foreign investors are loading up on call contracts on the Nifty index at the 8,000 point and 8,100 point levels -a call option gives its holder the right to buy the underlying cash shares.   The index is currently trading at 7,800 points.

from Global Investing:

Sanctions bite Russia but some investors are fishing

By Andrew Winterbottom

Russian stocks are up today, for the fifth day in a row and at the highest level in two weeks. What's going on? As we wrote  here earlier in the week, foreign investors have been fleeing this market.  However it could be that some of them are starting to put aside concerns about the potential for further sanctions on Moscow and are scouring Russia's stock markets for contrarian buying opportunities.

Russian stocks, chronically undervalued, are trading now at a discount of more than 60 percent to broader emerging markets, and to China which by all accounts is the standout beneficiary of the Russian woes. Just how cheap Russian shares are can be gauged from the fact they trade at a discount event to turbulent Pakistan. Here is a link that compares Russian equity valuations with other emerging and developed markets:  http://link.reuters.com/guv77v

from Breakingviews:

U.S.-backed China tech shows investment curb folly

By Robyn Mak

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

China’s tech companies may be Beijing’s darlings, but they have U.S. dollar funding to thank. The next generation of upstarts look likely to continue the pattern. Foreign currency funds poured $5 billion into venture capital the first half of this year – three times more than local funds raised. The economic benefits these foreign investors bring make the rules keeping them out harder to justify.

from Global Investing:

Emerging markets; turning a corner

Emerging markets have been attracting healthy investment flows into their stock and bond markets for much of this year and now data compiled by consultancy CrossBorder Capital shows the sector may be on the cusp of decisively turning the corner.

CrossBorder and its managing director Michael Howell say their Global Liquidity Index (GLI) -- a measure of money flows through world markets -- showed the sharpest improvement in almost three years in June across emerging markets. That was down to substantially looser policy by central banks in India, China and others that Howell says has moved these economies "into a rebound phase".

from Global Investing:

Ecuador: a successful emerging market?

A colleague of mine, Marius Zaharia (@MZaharia) interviewed Moritz Kraemer, Standard and Poor's head of sovereign ratings for Europe, Middle East and Africa. (you can read the interview here) Kraemer offered this piece of advice to the African governments who are busily tapping bond markets these days:

    What I want to tell all those governments in africa is that you are not a successful market participant when you've issued your first eurobond. You are a successful participant when you've paid it back for the first time.   

from Breakingviews:

Take hedge fund exuberance with grain of SALT

By Jeff Goldfarb
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

A wave of hedge fund exuberance should be taken with a grain of SALT. At SkyBridge Capital’s so-named Las Vegas confab this week, a near-unanimous confidence emerged amid moans about conference fatigue. Long-anticipated opportunities in M&A, bargains in Europe and collapsing correlations have finally arrived all at once, if some of the world’s richest investors are to be believed. The consensus itself may, however, give reason for pause.

from Global Investing:

Braving emerging stocks again

It's a brave investor who will venture into emerging markets these days, let alone start a new fund. Data from Thomson Reuters company Lipper shows declining appetite for new emerging market funds - while almost 200 emerging debt and equity funds were launched in Europe back in 2011, the tally so far  this year is just 10.

But Shaw Wagener, a portfolio manager at U.S. investor American Funds has gone against the trend, launching an emerging growth and income fund earlier this month.

from Global Investing:

No more “emerging markets” please

The crisis currently roiling the developing world has revived a debate in some circles about the very validity of the "emerging markets" concept. Used since the early 1980s as a convenient moniker grouping countries that were thought to be less developed -- financially or infrastructure-wise or due to the size or liquidity of their financial markets -- the widely varying performances of different countries during the turmoil has served to underscore the differences rather than similarities between them.  An analyst who traveled recently between several Latin American countries summed it up by writing that he had passed through three international airports during his trip but had not had a stamp in his passport that said "emerging market".

Like this analyst, many reckon the day has come when fund managers, index providers and investors must stop and consider  if it makes sense to bucket wildly disparate countries together.  After all what does Venezuela, with its anti-market policies and 50 percent annual inflation, have in common with Chile, a free market economy with a high degree of transparency  and investor-friendliness?

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID: The deepening EM selloff

The contagion is building. Major world markets are taking it on the chin, U.S. stocks have slumped, and major asset managers in Europe are seeing shares fall, with some citing corporate exposure to emerging markets in general and Spanish exposure to Latin America in particular.

Safe havens - from Treasuries to gold to the yen and Swiss franc - are way up. And really, while specific country issues are in play here, (Argentina is, well, Argentina), the removal of liquidity on one side of the world and a slowing economy on the other is enough to shake out some long-held notions of what's going to be the environment.

from Breakingviews:

BlackRock may fancy revisiting Blackstone heritage

By Jeffrey Goldfarb
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Is it time for BlackRock to revisit its Blackstone heritage? Larry Fink’s investment company manages $4.3 trillion while Steve Schwarzman’s, with only 6 percent of the assets, probably generated the same amount of profit last year. That has to make private equity tempting for BlackRock. It could one day buy a firm like, say, TPG.

  •