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from MacroScope:
Euro zone week ahead
It looks like a week short of blockbusters, particularly today with much of Europe on holiday. But there will be plenty to chew over over the next few days on the state of the euro zone and whether newly-printed central bank money lapping round the world risks throwing things off kilter.
Flash PMIs for the euro zone, Germany and France for May, plus the German Ifo index, follow first quarter GDP data which showed Europe’s largest economy just about eked out some growth but nobody else in the currency bloc did. That trend is likely to be reaffirmed with the harsh winter, having curbed German activity in Q1, allowing for a rebound in sectors like construction in Q2. France and the rest of the pack are unlikely to be so lucky.
For the markets, this leaves all sorts of assets in demand since if the economy worsens, central bank largesse will stay in place for longer and could be enhanced and if recovery finally shows up, well then that’s good for stock markets at least. The only real losers so far have been in the commodities and energy arena. The 500-pound gorilla in the room is how the world economy will cope when the big central banks finally halt and even start to reverse their extraordinary stimulus policies but that looks like a question for 2014 at the earliest. Interestingly, both the IMF and Bank for International Settlements issued warnings about this on the same day.
Ten months after his pledge to save the euro fundamentally changed the dynamics of the currency bloc’s debt crisis, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi returns to the scene of the crime (I know, that’s the wrong word for all but the hardest hardliners) – London – to deliver a keynote speech. Draghi has said the ECB is prepared to act further if the economy worsens, having already cut interest rates to a fresh record low this month. But what?
from Nicholas Wapshott:
Austerity is a moral issue
Security worker opens the door of a government job center as people wait to enter in Marbella, Spain, December 2, 2011. REUTERS/Jon Nazca
In the nearly five years since the worst financial crash since the Great Depression, the remedy for the world’s economic doldrums has swung from full-on Keynesianism to unforgiving austerity and back.
from Breakingviews:
Hollande gets serious on Europe – at last
By Pierre Briançon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
François Hollande knows that the widening Franco-German divide lies at the heart of the euro zone crisis. In a press conference on Thursday, the French president showed that he wants to find a way to work with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to take Europe forward. He suggested the creation of an “economic government” of the monetary union, while addressing a key German concern: Paris seems ready to accept sovereignty transfers of a sort that would make such a centralised body effective.
from Breakingviews:
Small-number fixation clouds euro zone picture
By Edward Hadas
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Germany is growing and France has suffered a double-dip recession. Wednesday’s GDP release has plenty to excite investors and analysts. But drawing big conclusions from tiny numbers in isolation can be dangerous.
from MacroScope:
There is no sovereign debt crisis in Europe
Evidence that Europe’s austerity policies are not working was in ample supply this morning. The euro zone as a whole is now in its longest recession since the start of monetary union. France has succumbed to the region's retrenchment. Italy’s GDP slump is now the lengthiest on record. And Greece, still in depression, shrank another 5.3 percent in the first quarter.
To understand why this is happening, Brown University professor Mark Blyth says it is necessary to forget everything you think you know about the euro zone crisis. The monetary union's troubles are not, as often depicted, the result of runaway spending by bloated, profligate states that are finally being forced to pay the piper. Instead, argues Blyth, it is merely a sequel to the U.S. financial meltdown that started, like its American counterpart, with dangerously-indebted risk-taking on the part of a super-sized banking sector.
from MacroScope:
Cameron’s dilemma
Britain’s David Cameron began the day on Monday gently slapping down two Cabinet colleagues who said if they had a vote today, they would opt to leave the EU. It was senseless, he said, to throw in the towel before he had had a chance to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe. He ended it by caving into rebels in his Conservative party who are demanding legislation now to commit to an in/out referendum before the next election.
The 25 year history of the Conservatives and Europe – internecine warfare and successive election defeats as they obsessed about something which figures low on most Britons’ priority list – suggests no good can come of this and if Cameron wins the 2015 election it moves Britain incrementally closer to the EU exit door. The more immediate question is whether Cameron has lanced the boil. Again, history suggests that if you give ground to the eurosceptics they merely demand more. And what the PM’s pro-EU Liberal Democrat coalition partners make of this isn’t hard to imagine which means he might not even have the numbers to get the bill through parliament. One of the leading rebels seized on that point, saying the move could well fail.
from Thinking Global:
The growing Franco-German schism
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel talks with France's President Francois Hollande (R) at the European Union leaders summit in Brussels March 15, 2013. REUTERS/Laurent DubruleTaxicab2
Occasionally a public opinion survey surfaces that signals a seismic event. That is the case with a new report from the Pew Research Center that measures the widening tremors of a political earthquake now shaking Europe.
from Global Investing:
Weekly Radar: Watch the thought bubbles…
Far from the rules of the dusty old investment almanac, it’s up, up and away in May after all. And judging by the latest batch of economic data, markets may well have had good reason to look beyond the global economic ‘soft patch’ – with US employment, Chinese trade and even German and British industry data all coming in with positive surprises since last Friday. Is QE gaining traction at last?
Well, it's still hard to tell yet in the real economy that continues to disappont overall. But what's certain is that monetary easing is contagious and not about to stop in the foreseeable future - whether there's signs of a growth stabilisation or not. With the Fed, BoJ and BoE still on full throttle and the ECB cutting interest rates again last week, monetary easing is fanning out across the emerging markets too. South Korea was the latest to surprise with a rate cut on Thursday, in part to keep a lid on its won currency after Japan's effective maxi devaluation over the past six months. But Poland too cut rates on Wednesday. And emerging markets, which slipped into the red for the year in February, have at last moved back into the black - even if still far behind year-to-date gains in developed market equities of about 16%!
from MacroScope:
What did he mean by that?
"What did he mean by that?" 19th century Austrian diplomat Metternich is said to have asked of Talleyrand when he heard the French statesman had died. The euro zone crisis, and the response of its leaders, has often required the same question to be asked.
There were some carefully chosen words from Germany yesterday with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble saying that elements of a banking union would have to be pursued without lengthy and arduous treaty change, something he’d previously said would be necessary.
from Breakingviews:
Lufthansa governance farce marks new low point
By Olaf Storbeck
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Europe’s largest airline in the last 24 hours has gone through a series of self-inflicted turbulences that raise doubts about the quality of its governance. On Monday morning, the nominated new chairman of Lufthansa, a former chief executive of the company, unexpectedly announced that he would not be available for the task. One day ahead of the annual shareholder meeting, Wolfgang Mayrhuber, 66, seemed to cave in to pressure from international investors unhappy with his candidacy. Then, a few hours later, he changed his mind once again, and decided to run after all.
