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from Hugo Dixon:

UK prepares for possible EU failure

David Cameron looks to be preparing for the possibility that his plan to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will fail. The UK prime minister would then campaign for the country to quit the EU in a referendum he plans to hold by 2017. That seems the best way to interpret his appointment of a eurosceptic foreign minister and the nomination of a little-known former lobbyist as Britain’s European commissioner.

This is not to say that Cameron wants to take Britain out of the EU – which would be a historical mistake. It is rather that he apparently thinks quitting could be an acceptable Plan B that would keep him in his job and his Conservative party reasonably united.

The British premier has never publicly said how he would campaign if he doesn’t manage to reform the EU and the country’s relationship with it. He used to dodge the question by saying he was confident of securing significant changes, while being fairly woolly about what reforms he was actually looking for.

But since last month’s fiasco when Cameron went out on a limb to block Jean-Claude Juncker’s appointment as president of the European Commission and failed, the calculations have changed a bit. The prime minister immediately warned that it would be harder to keep Britain in the EU, because it would be more difficult to reform it.

from Breakingviews:

China’s corruption purge nears tricky second phase

By John Foley 

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist.  The opinions expressed are his own.

China is entering the second stage of its colossal fight against graft. Nabbing high-profile culprits was a good start. Now, other miscreants have to believe the same could happen to them. Finally, the rewards for good behaviour must be made comparable to the spoils of wickedness. From here, things get tougher.

from Breakingviews:

Close presidential race may slow Indonesia reforms

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Indonesia’s tight presidential race could diminish the country’s chances of finding decisive leadership to execute urgent reforms.

from Breakingviews:

Sarkozy probe latest sign of sick French politics

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.  

France has sunk a little deeper into political paralysis with the corruption probe against Nicolas Sarkozy. The former president, who denies the charges, has been put under formal investigation for trying to convince a judge in France’s highest court to tell him about one of the many judicial probes of his behaviour.

from Edward Hadas:

The stupidity of student debt

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The fast increase in loans to pay for higher education is a trend that is moving in the wrong direction. The idea that borrowing should play an important role in financing higher education, now standard thinking in the United States and the United Kingdom, is financially dangerous and economically wrongheaded.

from Hugo Dixon:

EU would also be harmed by Brexit

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

It is not just Britain which would be damaged if it quit the European Union. So would other members. Jean-Claude Juncker’s nomination as Commission president at last Friday’s summit increases the chance of Brexit - Britain’s exit from the EU. Leaders from all countries now need to work to limit the risk it happens.

from Breakingviews:

Investors beware: France will get more erratic

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The French government didn’t have to buy a 20 percent stake in Alstom. It could have smugly observed that its intervention in the acquisition of the French engineer’s energy assets by General Electric had yielded some success. Pressure from Paris forced GE to rework its offer, giving France a decisive say in the future of Alstom’s nuclear business. With that concession secured, there was no good reason to buy out Alstom’s main shareholder, construction-to-telecom conglomerate Bouygues.

from Hugo Dixon:

Is Greece losing its reform drive?

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Is Greece losing its reform drive? Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has stuck to a harsh fitness programme for two years. But just as it is bearing fruit, he has sidelined some reformers in a reshuffle. There is only one viable path to redemption for Athens: stick to the straight and narrow.

from Breakingviews:

Blunt instrument is needed for global house bubble

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

House price bubbles thrust economies forward and crush them when they burst. The International Monetary Fund has now raised the prospect of a global housing bubble that could potentially destabilise the world economy. The risk is credible, but the IMF is sadly too coy about the root cause of the problem – ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy.

from Breakingviews:

Spanish government oddly passive on Catalonia risk

By Fiona Maharg-Bravo

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. 

Investors in Spanish debt don’t seem to worry much about the tension in Catalonia. Independence is a distant possibility, and yields on the country’s 10-year bonds, at 2.7 percent, are now below the UK’s. But the insouciance of the Spanish government on the matter is harder to fathom. The crisis won’t simply go away if Madrid does nothing.

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