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from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – I was dreaming when I wrote this…

The move by Roche to buy biotech company Intermune for $8.3 billion at a 38 percent premium isn’t going to make Janet Yellen happy, given her thoughts on the valuation of certain biotechnology and Internet retailing names. Still, with the Fed chair on board for low rates for some time given the slack situation in the labor market that the Fedsters keep talking about (basically, the unemployment rate, like the old grey mare, ain’t what she used to be), the long march to 2,000 on the S&P looks like it’s probably going to be over before long (it's been done on an intraday basis, and now we're just waiting on a close above that level), representing a tripling in that average in a bit more than five years and raising again all those questions about whether this all makes sense and if anyone cares anyway.

On the first point, well, nobody knows anything – earnings were generally strong in this most recent quarter, particularly when one expands the universe to the Russell 1000, where Credit Suisse points out more companies that are beating analyst expectations are growing sales, a sign of improved demand.

About 70 percent of the Russell 2000 beat on earnings estimates (about 62-65 percent if you exclude the ones that only beat due to reducing share counts through buybacks), and of that group, 84 percent did so while growing sales, pointing at least to some hope on improved demand. But there’s always weakness out there somewhere, and it appears to be among the true small-caps – the Russell 2000, which has been trailing the S&P and yet still looks overvalued based on a number of measures and has been seeing more negative revisions even as the stocks struggle.

The weakness in those names, along with some lackluster stock performance out of consumer discretionary stocks, explains in part why hedge funds are once again struggling, up less than 1 percent for the year compared with about an 8 percent gain in the S&P 500 for the year (after 2013’s ridiculous rise, of course, when hedge funds wouldn’t have been expected to keep up in the first place).

from Breakingviews:

Argentine opportunity cost is reason to cut deal

By Martin Hutchinson

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Argentina’s debt negotiators need to think about opportunity cost. A failure to reach agreement with holdout creditors by Wednesday might not make things immediately worse. But it would set back recent efforts to curry favor with international financiers – efforts that could pay off richly for the Argentine economy.

from Breakingviews:

Soros takes sub-quantum leap into activism

By Christopher Swann

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Is George Soros turning activist? His $29 billion hedge fund has famously confronted governments. But facing off with a $1 billion U.S. oil and gas company is novel. The move gives underperforming corporate bosses another scourge to fear.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Two to Tango

Wednesday's version of reading tea leaves involves Argentina's economy minister Axel Kicillof, who will be in New York to speak to the United Nations about Argentina's debt situation. In case the U.N. missed it, Argentina defaulted a while back - 12 years ago - and they've been fighting with a group of investors on paying some of their debt since. Which is a roundabout way of saying Kicillof may not just be in New York to talk to the U.N., not when NML, Aurelius and the other holders are all also in New York too, and the judge in question, and any special envoy he introduces to try to wring some kind of compromise out of this situation. There's a big coupon payment due June 30, and the country has been prohibited from doing so unless it pays the holdouts, which it has pledged not to do, giving it a 30-day grace period before being declared in default.

So the thing to watch for is something like a clandestine meeting between all parties to find a way to reach an accord, even if it's the kind of thing that comes down to the July 30 wire - when Argentina would be considered in default again (double-secret default, as Dean Wormer would have it, and really, if John Vernon were alive, he'd have solved this mess a long time ago).

from Breakingviews:

Take hedge fund exuberance with grain of SALT

By Jeff Goldfarb
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

A wave of hedge fund exuberance should be taken with a grain of SALT. At SkyBridge Capital’s so-named Las Vegas confab this week, a near-unanimous confidence emerged amid moans about conference fatigue. Long-anticipated opportunities in M&A, bargains in Europe and collapsing correlations have finally arrived all at once, if some of the world’s richest investors are to be believed. The consensus itself may, however, give reason for pause.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID: Mo-Mo and the Hedge Fund Reckoning

Who had the mo-mo mojo and who was crushed by the steamroller becomes evident late in the day Thursday when filings from major hedge fund managers – those things known as 13-Fs – are released.

Hedge funds were hit hard by the decline in the likes of Twitter, Tesla, Netflix and a lot of other names that long/short investors had favored throughout 2013 and early 2014, but their substantial decline cut the legs out of a lot of leveraged managers looking to continue to profit on the big run-up in that sector.

from Breakingviews:

Hedge fund customers’ yachts washing further away

By Martin Hutchinson
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Hedge fund customers’ yachts are washing further away. The flood of money – now $2.7 trillion – in hedge funds has squashed returns below public stock markets. Private equity doesn’t seem to be doing much better. Investors beware.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Momentum stocks: A primer

Lots of stocks have been getting killed in the last several weeks and the declines don’t seem really like they’re set to abate headed into a week where news is again at a premium (sure, earnings, but it’s just a few names, and they’re mostly decidedly not in this category of the momentum names that fueled the rally in 2013). So the likes of Facebook, Tesla Motors, Netflix, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and a bunch of others have seen their fortunes turn in the market. But at this time we thought it would be a good way to get into this topic again by trying to lay out just what the hell a momentum stock is in the first place, because they exhibit a number of characteristics beyond just “a stock that’s going up very high.” So here goes:

Growing Industries: Internet retail, internet security, solar, cloud computing, companies that use the cloud for providing services (think Salesforce.com), biotechnology, and anything else where the prospects for growth are big and related to a growing sector of the economy. Utilities don’t really qualify here, naturally. The reasons are two-fold: for one, in order to jump onto a rising growth story, you’d want to be in a place where the expected future returns outpace the returns you’re getting now, something you won’t get from the telephone company, someone who sells toothpaste, or the guys hooking up the electricity.

from Financial Regulatory Forum:

The JOBS Act at age two – prodigy or enfant terrible?

By Stuart Gittleman, Compliance Complete

NEW YORK, Apr. 3, 2014 (Thomson Reuters Accelus) - The financial services industry is still getting used to the two-year old JOBS Act, as funds gingerly begin to explore new general-solicitation freedoms and "crowdfunding" venues sort through the rules, speakers said at a Fordham Law School forum in New York.

As mandated by the JOBS – or Jumpstart Our Business Startups – Act enacted in April 2012, the Securities and Exchange Commission has adopted rules for general solicitations that became effective in September 2013, and is reviewing comments to a December 2013 set of proposed crowd-funding rules.

from Felix Salmon:

Trish Regan, Einhorn apologist

Ever since the story first broke, more than five weeks ago, that David Einhorn was suing Seeking Alpha, the Israeli financial website has been very, very quiet on the topic. Sometimes they have simply failed to respond at all to requests for comment (including mine); other times, as with Andrew Ross Sorkin, a spokesman will formally decline to comment.

So it was a big deal when Seeking Alpha president David Siegel appeared on Bloomberg TV today, and answered Trish Regan’s questions about the Einhorn lawsuit. Or, at least, it would have been a big deal, if Regan had actually bothered to ask him any of the obvious questions. Like, for instance, whether he’s going to fight it, or what he thinks of the merits of the case.

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