By Reynolds Holding
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Heading into the end of a violent week and ahead of a slew of earnings reports, the market has swung from one extreme to another, as the average daily move in the S&P 500 rises dramatically, as futures promise another big drop at the open Friday, and as investors try to take stock of what's happening here in their beloved stock market.
The California Public Employees Retirement System is getting out of hedge funds. Calpers’ decision to divest the $4 billion it had in hedge funds (of about $300 billion total) isn’t exactly a surprise, since members of the organization openly expressed doubts about the investment strategy last year. But Calpers’ reputation as the gold standard among public-employee pension funds may portend changes in the way smaller pension funds invest their money.
The move by Roche to buy biotech company Intermune for $8.3 billion at a 38 percent premium isn’t going to make Janet Yellen happy, given her thoughts on the valuation of certain biotechnology and Internet retailing names. Still, with the Fed chair on board for low rates for some time given the slack situation in the labor market that the Fedsters keep talking about (basically, the unemployment rate, like the old grey mare, ain’t what she used to be), the long march to 2,000 on the S&P looks like it’s probably going to be over before long (it's been done on an intraday basis, and now we're just waiting on a close above that level), representing a tripling in that average in a bit more than five years and raising again all those questions about whether this all makes sense and if anyone cares anyway.
Wednesday's version of reading tea leaves involves Argentina's economy minister Axel Kicillof, who will be in New York to speak to the United Nations about Argentina's debt situation. In case the U.N. missed it, Argentina defaulted a while back - 12 years ago - and they've been fighting with a group of investors on paying some of their debt since. Which is a roundabout way of saying Kicillof may not just be in New York to talk to the U.N., not when NML, Aurelius and the other holders are all also in New York too, and the judge in question, and any special envoy he introduces to try to wring some kind of compromise out of this situation. There's a big coupon payment due June 30, and the country has been prohibited from doing so unless it pays the holdouts, which it has pledged not to do, giving it a 30-day grace period before being declared in default.