By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
A dip in 30-year mortgage rates to their lowest level in more than a year and stronger U.S. housing data on Friday appeared to be the green shoots of the next phase of U.S. economic recovery, that being the housing market.
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The American housing market is looking better. That’s not entirely surprising, given that there was nowhere to go but up after the big bust of 2008. Some indicators — the number of housing starts, for instance — look quite healthy. But a team of researchers from the New York Fed, looking over a treasure trove of new data on the benefits and drawbacks of homeownership, have concluded that the divide between owners and renters is still one of the biggest fault lines in America.
U.S. housing prices fell 0.2% in June from May, the latest data from the Case Shiller index shows. Compared to June last year, prices were up 8.1%, but the pace of the increase is still slowing down. May’s numbers showed a year-over-year change of positive 9.4%.
The jobs report takes a bit of heat off of Thursday’s selloff, which was predicated in part on some nonsense out of Europe and more importantly some kind of growing consensus that the economy is getting hot enough that it might force the Federal Reserve to start raising rates a bit earlier than expected, given a sharp and unexpected rise in the employment cost index on Thursday. And while it’s fair to suggest the stock market has gotten a bit ahead of itself when the Fed is rapidly moving toward the end of its stimulus policies, it’s also possible that stocks have gotten ahead of themselves for a far more prosaic reason – the economy isn’t strong enough to support the kind of valuations we’re seeing in equities right now.
The White House wants to help you move out of your parents’ basement. That was the message from Jason Furman, the chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, at the Zillow Housing Forum in Washington yesterday.
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
As I speak with a relatively recognizable British accent, travelling by taxi in many Asian countries has become something of a trial in recent years. Whenever my nationality is recognized, I am (courteously) asked for my views on the London property market, and where to buy. In a world of low interest rates, property has become increasingly fashionable, and somehow housing advice delivered in a British accent has become highly sought after.
The new EU aristocracy will be put in place this week with the European Parliament to confirm Jean-Claude Juncker as the next European Commission President today and then EU leaders gathering for a summit on Wednesday at which they will work out who gets the other top jobs in Brussels.