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from MacroScope:

Battle lines drawn

Germany's Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schauble speaks during a discussion during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

The predictable battle lines were drawn at the G20/IMF meetings in Washington - most of the world urged Europe to do more to foster growth while Germany warned against letting up on austerity. The argument will doubtless be reprised today when euro zone finance ministers meet in Luxembourg.

Given a ghastly run of German data last week and sharp cuts to its growth forecasts by the IMF and Germany’s economic institutes, Berlin’s stance looks increasingly odd but Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble continued to make it abundantly clear he will not countenance any more public spending in the one European country that could really afford it.

Writing cheques won’t fix Europe, he stated bluntly.

If there was anything new it appeared to be the intensity of the response. This from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi: "For governments that have fiscal space it makes sense to use it. You decide to which countries this sentence applies."

Jyrki Katainen, the former Finnish premier poised to become the EU’s top official for growth and jobs, said Germany, France and Italy must focus on public investment to revive their economies.

from MacroScope:

Greek confidence vote

A Greek and an EU flag flutter in front of the temple of the Parthenon during the takeover ceremony of the six-month rotation of Greece's EU Presidency in Athens

Greece’s ruling coalition will hold a confidence vote in parliament this evening in an effort to end speculation that the country may be facing snap elections early next year.

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras wants to use the vote to gain support for his candidate in a presidential vote. Under Greek law, parliament must be dissolved if a president cannot be elected. The radical leftist Syriza, which has a sizeable lead in opinion polls, has pledged to block Samaras's pick.

from MacroScope:

Italian and Greek confidence votes

Greece's PM Samaras addresses the audience during the Economist Conference on "The big rethink for Europe, the big turning point for Greece" in Athens

You wait ages for a no-confidence vote then two come along on the same day. Neither are expected to cause governments to topple.

Greece’s ruling coalition will hold a confidence vote in parliament in an effort to end speculation that the country may be facing snap elections early next year.

from MacroScope:

Shocking German figures

A new Mercedes AMG GT super sports car rim is seen during a factory tour for journalists at the Mercedes AMG headquarters in Affalterbach

After a stunning fall in German industrial orders for August – the 5.7 percent monthly drop was the largest since the global financial crisis raged in 2009 – industrial output for the same month has just plunged by 4.0 percent, also the biggest fall in five years.

After Europe’s largest economy shrank in the second quarter there had been hope of a pick-up in the following three months but the thrust of recent data suggests it will be lucky to achieve any expansion at all.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Ebola’s “worst case” economic impact may total more than $40 billion – World Bank’s Evans

As world leaders gather this week for the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank  autumn meetings, Ebola will be top on the list of priorities. Apart from the human toll, the economic impact will be felt for at least a couple of years, said David Evans, senior economist of the World Bank’s Africa Division.

David Evans, senior economist, World Bank's Africa region

David Evans, senior economist, World Bank's Africa region

"What we see is that in the short run, by the end of this year, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are likely to be about $359 million poorer than they would have been in the absence of the Ebola outbreak,” Evans told the Global Markets Forum ahead of the meetings. “With our estimates of the impact of West Africa alone, even in a less tragic case, the lost GDP is likely to run into the billions. And in a worse case, we have even higher numbers (more than $40 billion).”

from MacroScope:

Turkey poised to intervene?

Iraqi Shi'ite militia fighters stand atop destroyed vehicles belonging to Islamic State militants outside Bo Hassan village near Tikrit

Turkey's parliament has voted to give the government a green light to order military action against Islamic State as the insurgents tightened their grip on a Syrian border town, sending thousands more Kurdish refugees into Turkey.

There is little sign of it being put into imminent use but the vote gives the government powers to order incursions into Syria and Iraq to counter the threat of attack "from all terrorist groups". By common consent, western air strikes alone are unlikely to vanquish IS and there is a great deal of doubt that Syrian and Iraqi forces can best them on the ground.

from MacroScope:

French budget to fire EU growth debate

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France is unveiling its 2015 budget right now and it’s not making pretty reading, confirming that Paris will not get its budget deficit down to the EU limit of three percent of GDP until 2017, years after it should have done.

The health minister has said the welfare deficit is expected to run nearly one billion euros over budget this year and data on Tuesday showed France's national debt hit a record high in the second quarter, topping two trillion euros for the first time. It will near 100 percent of GDP next year.

from Breakingviews:

Bland Lagarde will escape the Bretton Woods curse

By Christopher Swann

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Christine Lagarde may soon reap the benefits of being bland. The IMF chief is under investigation for signing off on a 403 million euro ($531 million) payout to a French tycoon when she served as the country’s finance minister. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, her predecessor at the Washington-based lender, and former World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz were both ousted for misconduct. Lagarde, though, has few enemies.

from MacroScope:

A reminder that all is not well in the euro zone

Bank of Portugal Governor Costa arrives to read a statement in Lisbon

A reminder that while the euro zone crisis may be in abeyance, it still has the ability to bite.

Portugal will blow 4.4 billion euros of the 6.4 billion euros left from Lisbon’s recently exited international bailout programme shoring up troubled lender Banco Espirito Santo which will be split into "bad" and "good" banks. Junior bondholders and shareholders will be heavily hit.

from MacroScope:

Still room for improvement with the BoE’s forward guidance, says IMF

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There was plenty of support for the Bank of England’s stance on interest rates from the International Monetary Fund in its latest report on the British economy.

But it seemed a little less sure on how forward guidance – the Bank’s cornerstone policy since Governor Mark Carney took charge last year – has fared so far.

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