from MacroScope:

A long haul

By Mike Peacock
September 24, 2014

U.S. Navy handout shows EA-6B Prowler attached to the Garudas of Electronic Attack Squadron 134 landing aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush after conducting strike missions against Islamic State targets, in the Gulf

Having largely sailed through this year’s choppy (to say the least) geopolitical waters, markets are a little discomfited by U.S. air strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State militants ... though only a little.

from Hugo Dixon:

Now on to the Brexit referendum

By Hugo Dixon
September 22, 2014

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

from MacroScope:

Europe looks again to Draghi

By Mike Peacock
September 22, 2014

RTR3OB5X.jpg

Surprisingly low take-up at last week’s first round of cheap four-year loans by the European Central Bank begs a number of questions – How low is demand for credit and what does that say about the state of the economy? Are banks cowed by the upcoming stress tests? Does this make an eventual leap to QE more likely?

from MacroScope:

Not really that close

By Mike Peacock
September 19, 2014

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond speaks at the "Yes" Campaign headquarters in Edinburgh, Scotland

So what was all the fuss about?

A first rough draft of history would suggest the one opinion poll that gave the independents a lead nearly two weeks ago scared the Bejesus not only out of the British establishment but a significant chunk of Scottish voters too.

from Jim Gaines:

One in four Americans want their state to secede from the U.S., but why?

September 19, 2014

SECESSION_opinion_map with q

Click on the image to explore the the complete poll results.

For the past few weeks, as Scotland debated the wisdom of independence, Reuters has been asking Americans how they would feel about declaring independence today, not from the United Kingdom, but from the mother country they left England to create. The exact wording of the question was, “Do you support or oppose the idea of your state peacefully withdrawing from the United States of America and the federal government?”

from MacroScope:

The final lap

By Mike Peacock
September 17, 2014

A "Yes" campaign poster is displayed on the Isle of Lewis in the Outer Hebrides

Three opinion polls last night all put Scotland’s anti-independence vote at 52 percent, the secession campaign on 48. If accurate, the “Yes” camp will have to move heaven and earth in the next 24 hours to turn the tables despite having dramatically narrowed the gap.

from Breakingviews:

Applying corporate finance to nations

September 16, 2014

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

from MacroScope:

Showdown for Hollande

By Mike Peacock
September 16, 2014

French President Hollande and Finance Minister Sapin take part in the assizes for financing and investment at the Elysee Palace in Paris

The French government faces a confidence vote in the national assembly after President Francois Hollande and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, ousted dissident ministers in a signal perhaps that they are prepared to push ahead with unpopular structural reforms to breathe life into a moribund economy.

from MacroScope:

Swedish shift

By Mike Peacock
September 15, 2014

Opposition leader Stefan Lofven speaks at the election night party of the Social Democrats in Stockholm

Sweden's centre-left Social Democrats topped the poll in Sunday’s election but fell well short of an overall majority to the extent that it will struggle to form a strong coalition.

from MacroScope:

All to play for

By Mike Peacock
September 12, 2014

A "No" campaign poster is seen in a field after being vandalised by a "Yes" supporter on the outskirts of Edinburgh

The latest Scottish opinion poll puts the unionist camp ahead by 52 points to 48 – still way too close to call given the statistical margin for error.