Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Expert Zone:

Indian hedge funds get knocked down but get up again

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The fortunes of hedge funds focused on India continue to twist and turn, with many plots and subplots. After witnessing widespread losses and heavy redemptions in 2008, Indian hedge fund managers bounced back remarkably to post a 50 percent return in 2009. They continued their good form in 2010, delivering healthy gains of 12 percent during the year.

But in 2011, the managers witnessed losses amid declining markets and a depreciating rupee. At the end of that year, many managers expressed confidence in the underlying market for the following year and predicted gains for the rupee by mid-2012 -- both these predictions came to pass. The Eurekahedge Indian Hedge Fund Index was up 13.13 percent in 2012, making it the strongest regional hedge fund mandate for the year. Some of the funds even witnessed asset inflows in 2012 and early 2013, a rarity for Indian hedge funds since the financial crisis.

As such, Indian hedge fund managers started this year with their tails up, armed with strong returns and positive global investor sentiment. The managers witnessed healthy returns in January, helped by a rally in underlying equities as foreign investors poured more cash into Indian stocks. And just when you thought the sector was out of the woods, the positive run ended -- most managers witnessed losses in February and March, finishing the first quarter in the red.

Investor reaction to the 2013-14 Budget was not very supportive, given that it did not include significant infrastructure development announcements. The second quarter was worse as the rupee declined, further adding to market losses suffered by managers. July and August witnessed a continuation of the negative streak, as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to support the rupee further hurt investor sentiment.

from India Insight:

Business of new and worn banknotes thriving in Delhi

Rakesh Kumar is not like most of the street vendors in Old Delhi. The hand-painted sign on his wooden counter, “exchange damaged, old notes,” reveals a different story. He sells money.

For the past 40 years, Kumar has offered customers new banknotes for soiled or damaged ones for a fee that earns him about 100,000 rupees ($1,600) a year. It has also helped him pay for the marriages of his three children.

from Breakingviews:

Narendra Modi could be India’s Shinzo Abe

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Narendra Modi could be India’s Shinzo Abe. If the recent state polls are any indicator of the electorate’s mood, the opposition politician will be prime minister of the world’s largest democracy by May next year. Just like his Japanese counterpart, Modi would oversee higher asset prices and revive growth, but struggle with structural reforms.

from India Insight:

Reactions from India to the death of Nelson Mandela

Nelson Mandela, who emerged from 27 years in apartheid prisons to help guide South Africa to democracy, died on Thursday.

Mandela had been inspired by Mahatma Gandhi’s decades-long non-violent resistance to British rule. India’s revered independence leader had also spent some of his early political years in South Africa, where he was involved in the struggle against racial discrimination.

from India Insight:

India state elections: Exit polls give BJP the upper hand

By Aditya Kalra and Shashank Chouhan

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win in four of the five states that went to polls over the past month, exit poll surveys conducted by Cvoter and the India Today-ORG group showed. Such a victory will be a boost for the party and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi ahead of the 2014 general elections.

The results for all the states, except Mizoram, will be announced on Sunday. Here’s what the exit polls forecast:

from India Insight:

Connecting borrowers and lenders: Indians try peer-to-peer model

Srinivas Porika tried for months to get a loan of 250,000 rupees ($4,000) to pay for his sister’s wedding, but every bank he tried turned him down. The problem: Porika’s employer, a tech start-up company, was not on the banks’ lists of pre-approved companies.

“They were ready to give me a credit card, but were not ready to give me a loan,” said the 28-year-old from Hyderabad, who met several bank managers and officials to plead his case.

from India Insight:

Equity funds outperform in November; smaller shares rise

India’s diversified equity funds bucked the trend in the broader markets to eke out gains in November, as a strong performance by mid- and small-cap shares and sectors such as capital goods supported unit values.

Data from fund tracker Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company, showed that such funds rose only 0.21 percent on average in the month, but outperformed the 30-share BSE Sensex that fell 1.8 percent.

from India Insight:

India’s political parties pump up the radio volume

Anyone who keeps a radio turned on in India's National Capital Region knows that election fever has settled on Delhi ahead of the Dec. 4 state polls. The ruling Congress party, main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and newcomer Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are betting big on radio campaigning -- a medium that reaches millions of people across economic classes and backgrounds.

Overall, about 250 million to 500 million rupees ($4 million to $8 million) have been spent on radio advertising in this year’s assembly election in Delhi – at least 200 percent more than during the 2008 state elections, Sunil Kumar of radio consulting firm Big River Radio estimated.

from Global Investing:

Revitalised West knocks Brazil, Russia off global growth Top-30

By Shadi Bushra

Yet another sign of the growth convergence between developed and emerging markets. Two  of the "BRIC' countries have dropped out of the Top-30 in a growth index compiled by political risk consultancy Maplecroft, while several Western powerhouses have nudged their way onto the list.

Maplecroft's 2014 Growth Opportunities Atlas showed that Brazil and Russia -- the B and R of the BRIC bloc -- had dropped 26 and 41 places, respectively - due to slow economic reforms and diversification.  The United States, Australia and Germany meanwhile broke into the top 30 on the  index, which evaluates 173 countries on their growth prospects over the next 20 years.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Results of state elections a key driver

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets had been on a roller-coaster ride but closed weak for the third week in the row with the Nifty in the 5950-6000 range providing support.

A hint from the U.S. Federal Reserve on tapering its bond-buying programme was enough to spook the markets. Though this is expected in the first quarter of the new year, it remains to be seen whether chairman-elect Janet Yellen's dovish stance would postpone it further.

  •