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from Breakingviews:

Another reason to be gloomy about emerging markets

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Investors have another reason to wrinkle their noses at emerging economies: fading labour productivity.

Output per worker will expand by 3.6 percent in developing economies this year, according to the New York-based Conference Board. That’s slightly faster than the 3.3 percent increase in 2013, but well below the 5 to 7 percent annual improvements that were the norm in the previous decade.

Graphic: Narrowing productivity growth gap between developed and developing economies.

from Expert Zone:

How much will U.S. recovery help India?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a prolonged slowdown, the U.S. economy is finally showing signs of recovery though much of it comes from investment in inventories and may not be sustained at the present high rate.

The United States is the largest economy with a share of more than 22 percent in the world GDP. Naturally, even small changes in its behaviour have a perceptible impact worldwide. To India, the United States counts for a lot, although possibly less than it does for China.

from The Human Impact:

Gender injustice: When Indian judges get it wrong

An Indian judge who called pre-marital sex "immoral" and against "the tenets of every religion" has been criticised by activists who say his remarks highlight gender insensitivity within the judiciary and the challenges faced by victims of sex crimes in seeking justice.

Judge Virender Bhat, who presides over a fast-track court which hears cases of sexual offences, made the remarks after ruling in one case that there was insufficient evidence that a man had duped a woman into having sex with him by promising marriage.

from Expert Zone:

U.S.-India dispute: A diplomat and a double-standard laid bare

(The following essay is commentary. The views of the author do not necessarily reflect those of Reuters)

Relations between the United States and India have crashed to their lowest ebb since the last millennium, something many Americans might have missed during the holiday buzz.  A spat over the treatment of a diplomat and her maid threatens the foundations of a key international partnership, and the implications extend far beyond foreign policy. This case could endanger American diplomats, businesspeople and tourists travelling abroad.

from India Insight:

Interview: BJP’s Harsh Vardhan slams AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi

By Aditya Kalra and Sankalp Phartiyal

India's Congress party and the upstart Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) entered an "unholy alliance" to share power in Delhi following state elections in the national capital, the chief ministerial candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said in an interview on Dec. 31.

Harsh Vardhan, who lost the race for chief minister of the capital region to AAP founder Arvind Kejriwal, said he thinks that the Congress party and the AAP had “some sort of understanding” before the elections. He offered no proof. Spokesmen for the AAP and the Congress party denied these charges.

from India Insight:

Equity funds underperform Sensex for first time since 2008

India’s diversified equity mutual funds rose in 2013 but underperformed the broader markets for the first time in five years, as returns were dampened by the losses in the mid- and small-cap shares as well as financial companies.

These funds gained 4.8 percent on average in 2013, according to data from fund tracker Lipper, delivering lesser annual returns than the benchmark BSE Sensex after 2008.  The Sensex touched life highs in 2013 and ended 9 percent higher, boosted by foreign inflows of more than $20 billion.

from Breakingviews:

India’s Common Man Party is investors’ frenemy

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The sudden rise of India’s self-professed “anti-establishment” party is making seasoned politicians nervous. Investors, meanwhile, view the dramatic ascent of the Aam Aadmi – Common Man Party - with a mixture of awe and suspicion.

from Expert Zone:

The year 2013 in perspective

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The economy was already in distress before 2013, but with no significant action by the government and increased pressure from external sources resulted in more danger signals. It is now doubtful whether the economy will recover in the current fiscal.

The rot began in 2011. It took hardly two-and-a-half years to bring down the growth from 8.8 percent to 4.5 percent. The monsoon was good but badly distributed with the result that the summer crop did not show much improvement.  Industry is amidst stagnation with zero growth in April- October. The capital goods sector has been hit the hardest because investment declined, while the only silver lining was the improvement in external trade. Exports increased and imports declined which brought down the CAD to less than 2 percent of GDP.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Investors to remain bullish in election season

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the repo rate unchanged and a dovish statement from Ben Bernanke in his last news conference as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman improved sentiment with the Nifty closing 106 points higher at 6,274.

Markets tottered for three days during the week amid fears the Nifty could break a crucial support zone between 6,120 and 6,140. Investors had discounted a 25 bps hike in monetary policy based on inflation numbers that were the highest in 14 months. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan should be lauded for taking a practical stance as food inflation is expected to cool considerably in December due to improved supplies and the monsoon effect.

from Breakingviews:

Swift bad loan clean-up will beef up Indian banks

By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

India’s new purge on bad loans will make banks sturdier. The Reserve Bank of India has proposed rules whereby lenders would start creditor crisis talks for any company that owes more than $16 million, if it misses a single repayment for more than 60 days. It sounds strict, but that’s what India needs: 10 percent of state banks’ loans have already turned bad.

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