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from Global Investing:

Bond market liberalisation — good or bad for India?

Many investors have greeted with enthusiasm India's plans to get its debt included in international indices such as those run by JPMorgan and Barclays. JPM's local debt indices, known as the GBI-EM,  were tracked by almost $200 billion at the end of 2012.  So even very small weightings in such indices will give India a welcome slice of investment from funds tracking them.

At present India has a $30 billion cap on the volume of rupee bonds that foreign institutional investors can buy, a tiny proportion of the market. Barclays analysts calculate that Indian rupee bonds could comprise up to a tenth of various market capitalisation-based local-currency bond indices. That implies potential flows of $20 billion in the first six months after inclusion, they say -- equivalent to India's latest quarterly current account deficit. After that, a $10 billion annual inflow is realistic, according to Barclays. Another bank, Standard Chartered, estimates $20-$40 billion could flow in as a result of index inclusion.

All that is clearly good news, above all for the country's chronic balance of payments deficit. The investments could ease the high borrowing costs that have put a brake on growth, and kick-start the local corporate bond market, provided more safeguards are put in. Indian banks that have traditionally held a huge amount of government bonds, would at least in theory be pushed into lending more to the real economy.

For decades India has been reluctant to let too many foreigners into its bond markets, fearing currency and interest rate volatility as cash comes and goes. RBS analysts say the caution is justified and the benefits of index inclusion at this point could be outweighed by the costs. They point out that inflation and currency appreciation are often side-effects of such flows:

from Global Investing:

Emerging equities: out of the doghouse

Emerging stocks, in the doghouse for months and months, haven't done too badly of late. The main EM index,  has rallied more than 11 percent since its end-August troughs, outgunning the S&P 500's 3 percent rise in this period. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett reminds us of the extreme underweight positioning in emerging stocks last month, as revealed by his bank's monthly investor survey.  Anyone putting on a long EM-short UK equities trade back then would have been in the money with returns of 540 basis points, he says.

Undoubtedly, the postponement of the Fed taper is the main reason for the rally.  Another big inducement is that valuations look very cheap (forward P/E is around 9.9 versus a 10-year average of 10.8) .

from India Insight:

Liquor retailers toast online model in India

When Dhruv Khandelwal started working as an equity research analyst after finishing his MBA in the United States, he wanted to start an Indian financial services website. That changed when Khandelwal and his friends ran out of beer on a Sunday afternoon.

Letsbuydrink.com, a website launched by Khandelwal six months ago, offers imported alcoholic beverages for sale in India. The website has 2,000 registered members and averages monthly sales of 150,000 rupees ($2,460).

from Expert Zone:

Rupee should not harden further

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The rupee has recovered over the past few weeks after falling to a record low of 68.85 per dollar in August. After a period of unease, the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India can now take it a little easy. But care needs to be taken that the rupee is not driven up further.

Speculation about the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme in May affected global currencies and the rupee was not alone in this predicament. The announcement had created a scare about the tapering of quantitative easing. That would have dried up liquidity that the market had got used to. The Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and the Indian rupee were the principal losers.

from Breakingviews:

Cooper-Apollo spat forces investors to pick lanes

By Una Galani and Peter Thal Larsen

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Investors in Cooper Tire & Rubber are being forced to pick lanes. Legal wrangles have put Apollo Tyres’ agreed $2.5 billion offer for its U.S. rival in doubt, and tensions at its China joint venture have undermined Cooper’s value. But a negotiated price reduction still looks possible. Cooper shares may be pricing in too much bad news.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Investors should wait for a correction to buy

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets continued a strong rally to close the week around 3 percent higher. After the partial U.S. shutdown was confirmed and triggered speculation over the postponement of QE tapering, a weakening dollar and the rupee’s subsequent appreciation also helped lift the mood.

Though the current account deficit for the first quarter was a better-than-expected 4.9 percent, IIP data that came in after market hours on Friday showed India’s industrial production had slowed to a dismal 0.6 percent in August. This suggests that buoyancy in the stock markets was driven by liquidity and sentiment, while things are different on the ground.

from Global Investing:

The hit from China’s growth slowdown

China's slowing economy is raising concern about the potential spillovers beyond its shores, in particular the impact on other emerging markets. Because developing countries have over the past decade significantly boosted exports to China to offset slow growth in the West and Japan, these countries are unquestionably vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown. But how big will the hit be?

Goldman Sachs analysts have crunched the numbers to show which markets and regions could be hardest hit. On the face of it non-Japan Asia should be most worried -- exports to China account for almost 3 percent of GDP while in Latin America it is 2 percent and in emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) it is just 1.1 percent, their data shows.

from India Insight:

Stamp collecting stages quiet comeback in India’s digital era

Rajjesh Mittal spends 20 minutes each morning placing bids for postage stamps on eBay. The IT entrepreneur began flirting with philately, or stamp collecting, two years ago, and has become such an ardent collector that he wants to demonstrate his love for postage by getting a tattoo of independent India’s first commemorative postmark.

Mittal is part of a generation of urban, educated Indians celebrating all things postal in the age of e-mail and Twitter. Though numbers are hard to come by, philately appears to be staging a revival in India, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to over 100,000 active collectors. Like Mittal, working professionals are taking up the hobby, joining stamp-collecting clubs and fostering friendships with enthusiasts from all walks of life.

from India Insight:

Interview: Chidambaram on Modi, Rahul Gandhi and becoming PM

By John Chalmers, Frank Jack Daniel and Manoj Kumar

(This article is website-exclusive and cannot be reproduced without permission)

P. Chidambaram, now in his third stint as finance minister, spoke to Reuters about Narendra Modi and the 2014 elections in an interview on Monday ahead of a trip to the United States. Here are edited excerpts from the interview:

If Congress returns to power in the elections next year and Rahul Gandhi is the prime minister, do you see yourself as finance minister?
That’s a question you should put to the prime minister. I am glad you acknowledge Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi but that is a question you should put to him.

from India Insight:

Interview: Chidambaram on the state of India’s economy

By John Chalmers, Frank Jack Daniel and Manoj Kumar

(This article is website-exclusive and cannot be reproduced without permission)

The Indian government will have to rein in spending and cut subsidies to meet its fiscal deficit target, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Monday, underlining that an austerity drive will not be blown off course by an election due next year.

The urbane Harvard-educated lawyer, now in his third stint as finance minister, spoke to Reuters in an interview ahead of a trip to the United States. Here are edited excerpts from the interview:

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