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from India Insight:

Pricey dollar puts South Africa, Australia on Indian tourists’ maps

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When Aparupa Ganguly visited South Africa in 2007, the country's topography and wildlife made such an impression on the communications professional that she couldn’t wait to come back. Ganguly got her wish six years later - thanks to a stable rand.

Foreign-bound Indian travellers such as Ganguly are realizing that holidaying in countries such as South Africa and Australia offers value for money as their currencies have been largely stable in recent weeks and haven't appreciated as much against the rupee, when compared to the dollar or the euro.

Data shows the South African rand and the Australian dollar have gained around 10 percent since May, compared to a near 30 percent surge in the U.S. dollar which hit a record high above 68 per rupee on Wednesday.

Ganguly, who accompanied her husband on a business trip to South Africa this month, bought the rand at about 6.2 per rupee and travelled across the Garden Route, a scenic tourist area on the country’s south-eastern coast.

from Expert Zone:

The rupee on a crash course

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Given the kind of volatility in financial products and asset classes that we have seen in India and some emerging markets over the last few weeks, it’s likely to be a long winter for the Indian economy.

The rupee is at an all-time low against the dollar, FIIs are big sellers in Indian debt and equity markets, the Sensex is falling and bond yields have risen. Adding to India’s misery, there’s no sign of inflation easing or interest rates coming down in a hurry. The twin deficits - fiscal and current account - are at levels that could expose the economy to a potential rating downgrade.

from Expert Zone:

No quick fixes to India’s growth problems

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Over the past year, the government has silenced its critics with several pro-reform policy initiatives including the relaxation of FDI norms, freeing FII debt investment limits and a calibrated deregulation of petroleum prices. These reforms were cheered by the markets by way of increased FII inflows.

India's widening twin deficits - fiscal and trade - appeared to have been reined in. But in the first few months of the fiscal year 2013-14, everything seems to have come undone for India - be it the potential end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy or the dollar’s appreciation against emerging market currencies.

from India Insight:

Bharti Airtel, NTPC top Sensex losers this week

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By Sankalp Phartiyal and Ankush Arora

The BSE Sensex recovered on Thursday and Friday after the index lost around 700 points in the first three trading sessions of the week. However, the index still ended down 0.4 percent as a weak rupee, concerns over foreign flows and uncertainty over the end of the U.S. Fed’s stimulus plan kept investors on the edge.

As a worsening current account deficit and inflation loomed large, the rupee hit fresh record lows below 65 per dollar in the week ending Aug. 23. However, gold prices and bonds rallied.

from Expert Zone:

How to rescue the falling rupee

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

I can’t predict where the rupee will eventually land and I don’t think anyone else can either.

Of course, we are not the only country at the mercy of the dollar because almost every emerging market is suffering. But surely, that shouldn’t be any consolation.

from MacroScope:

Why is the Reserve Bank of India so quiet on the rupee?

 

When nobody's listening, sometimes it pays to shout from the rooftops.

Based on the rupee's daily pasting, the Reserve Bank of India might do well to look to the European Central Bank's strong verbal defense of the euro just over a year ago.

In July last year ECB President Mario Draghi declared he would do "whatever it takes" to safeguard the euro's existence.

from Breakingviews:

Fed liquidity curbs will act as Asia’s detox plan

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Federal Reserve is forcing Asia to kick its addiction to hot money. The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates had made the region’s dwindling trade surpluses look an increasingly dangerous habit. Though markets may be turbulent, pricier local money or cheaper currencies will improve the trade balance for most Asian countries.

from Global Investing:

Tapping India’s diaspora to salvage rupee

What will save the Indian rupee? There's an election next year so forget about the stuff that's really needed -- structural reforms to labour and tax laws, easing business regulations and scrapping inefficient subsidies. The quickest and most effective short-term option may be a dollar bond issued to the Indian diaspora overseas which could boost central bank coffers about $20 billion.

The option was mooted a month ago when the rupee's slide started to get into panic territory but many Indian policymakers are not so keen on the idea

from Breakingviews:

India in depth: Let rupee sink to save the economy

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

India’s failing defence of the rupee is doing more harm than good. It’s time New Delhi left the plunging currency to market forces and shifted its focus to boosting exports and investment.

from Global Investing:

Turkey’s central bank — a little more action please

In the selloff gripping emerging markets, one currency is conspicuous by its absence -- the Turkish lira. But this will change unless the central bank adds significantly to its successful lira-defensive measures.

Hopefully at today's policy meeting.

Like India or Indonesia which have borne the brunt of the recent rout, Turkey has a large current account deficit, equating to over 5 percent of its economic output. But what has made the difference for the lira is the contrast between the Turkish central bank's decisive policy tightening moves and the ham-fisted tactics employed by India and Brazil.  (We wrote here about this).  See the following graphic (from Citi) that shows the central bank has effectively raised the effective cost of funding by 200 basis points to around 6.5 percent since its July 23 meeting.

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