Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Expert Zone:

Indian markets: Earnings in focus, better to stick to fundamentals

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

It’s reasonable to ask whether the Indian stock market has lost steam after the blistering run-up seen over the past couple of months. Since August, the markets have rallied about 40 percent, with many stocks in high-beta sectors such as infrastructure generating a return of more than 100 percent. At a one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15x, the Nifty isn’t exactly cheap for retail investors right now.

The Narendra Modi-led government, which contested and won the elections on the development plank, is expected to push for reforms in no time, taking on knotty issues related to taxation and infrastructure.

Of course, there is much it must do before the improvements begin to show -- from fast-tracking older projects and resolving mining issues to longer-term imperatives such as keeping inflation under control and achieving fiscal consolidation. But there is no gainsaying that all this will improve the earnings outlook of companies and mark the beginning of a structural bull run for the market.

So what must be the strategy of retail investors now? Calculations suggest that in the current scenario, the Nifty will go into overbought territory beyond 7,400 points. Hence, a fundamentals-driven equity strategy, with an investment horizon of between three and five years, can generate better returns.

from India Insight:

Narendra Modi’s new team of ministers

The Indian government on Tuesday announced its list of cabinet ministers along with their portfolios, a day after Narendra Modi was sworn in as the new prime minister.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won a landslide victory in a mammoth general election, grabbing 336 of the 543 seats and ending the Congress-led government's decade-long rule.

from India Insight:

Markets this week: Sesa Sterlite, NTPC top Sensex gainers

The benchmark BSE Sensex rose 2.4 percent this week as domestic-oriented stocks surged on hopes the incoming BJP government would keep up its promises to kick start an economy whose growth has dipped to its slowest in a decade.

Shares in companies such as Coal India, that are expected to benefit from an economic revival, and utilities performed well.

from Expert Zone:

Food prices matter: here’s why

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Investors are cautiously starting to examine the topic of food price inflation once again. The United States recently saw a sharp rise in producer price food inflation. Further down the economic development ladder, producer prices for the food manufacturing industry of China have been steadily creeping higher from the lows reached two years ago.

from John Lloyd:

Will India’s Modi resist the lure of nationalism?

Nationalism is in vogue in the world’s largest states.

President Vladimir Putin has called upon the specter of nationalism in staking Russia’s claim to Crimea and as a justification for destabilizing Ukraine’s east. He and the Russian military have acted to protect and, where possible, bring “home” his nation’s ethnic kin.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited a World War II shrine, in spite of predicable outrage in China. While, in China, President Xi Jinping has emphasized nationalist themes in advancing his “Chinese dream.”

from Ian Bremmer:

How far can Modi take India — and how fast?

modi77

As a result of last week’s parliamentary election in India, three of the world’s strongest and most transformational leaders are now in Asia: Japan’s Shinzo Abe, China’s Xi Jinping, and India’s Narendra Modi. They control a fifth of the global economy and govern two-fifths of its citizens. All have active plans to shake up their societies.

The expectations and the stakes are sky-high for each of these leaders, but none more so than Modi. Last week, Modi won the world’s largest-ever democratic election in a decisive fashion, with his party converting 31 percent of the national vote into 52 percent of the seats in parliament -- the first absolute majority in the lower house of parliament since 1984. Meanwhile, the reigning National Congress Party -- which has ruled India nearly without a break since its independence from Britain -- turned in its worst-ever performance, losing three-quarters of its seats.

from Expert Zone:

The rupee at a crossroads

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The rupee was tossed around quite a bit in the last 10 months. It dropped to a low of nearly 69 to the dollar, creating an economic crisis, before it recovered and is now at 59-60. The threat is not that it may drop once again, but that it may appreciate further and upset the economy in other ways.

Why would the rupee appreciate? Because there are expectations the Narendra Modi government will facilitate development and enable the economy to get back on course. This is what drove the Sensex beyond 25,000. But the currency market was more stable in spite of the huge inflow of $2.2 billion in 10 trading days of May.

from Breakingviews:

Modi’s big win gives India way out of policy limbo

By Andy Mukherjee 

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.   

Indian voters have just handed Narendra Modi their most decisive mandate in 30 years. The opposition politician’s landslide win ends a tortuous era of coalition politics that has stymied policymaking. It also offers India a way out of its current limbo.

from Expert Zone:

Debating India’s election cheat sheets

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

As the sun set on the final phase of polling in India on May 12, newsrooms were waiting impatiently for 6.30 p.m. -- the deadline set by the Election Commission for airing survey results on post-poll predictions.

Elaborate studio sets packed with guests and news anchors flanked by psephologists armed with data sets were all waiting to declare that Narendra Modi is coming to Delhi.

from Breakingviews:

India’s wobbly economy needs a factory revival

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

India needs a factory revival to boost its growth prospects. The country’s economy is unsteadily perched on software exports, hot money inflows and outsized fiscal transfers to villages. All three end up making the country’s exchange rate and labour uncompetitive. That shortens the fourth leg of the stool: manufacturing.

  •