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from Data Dive:

Inflation inches up

The latest inflation numbers are out. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in June, following a 0.4 percent rise in May, mostly thanks to high gasoline prices. However, core CPI -- which ignores volatile food and gas prices -- was only 0.1 percent. CPI year-over-year, which is the number commonly referred to when talking about inflation, now sits at 2.1 percent (1.9 percent without food and gas).

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This has implications for monetary policy, as the Fed ponders when exactly to time its first interest rate hike (currently expected sometime early next year). Here’s more detail from Reuters:

Inflation is creeping up as the economy's recovery becomes more durable, a welcome development for some Federal Reserve officials who had worried that price pressures were too low.

The steady increases have led some economists to predict that a separate inflation gauge watched by the Fed, currently running below the U.S. central bank's 2 percent target, could breach that target by year-end as an acceleration in job growth lifts wages.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – What’s all the Yellen about?

Rants from TV commentators aside, the market’s going to be keenly focused on Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony today, with a specific eye toward whether the Fed chair moderates her concerns about joblessness, under-employment and the overall dynamism of the labor force that has been left somewhat wanting in this recovery. The June jobs report, where payrolls grew by 288,000, was welcome news even as the economy continues to suffer due to low labor-force participation and weak wage growth.

Inflation figures are starting to show some sense of firming in various areas, for sure, but still not at a point that argues for a sharp move in Fed rates just yet. Overall, a look at Eurodollar futures still suggests the market sees a gradual, very slow uptick in overall rates – the current difference between the June 2015 futures and June 2016 futures are less than a full percentage point – not as low as it was in May of this year, but still lower than peaks seen in March and April 2014 and in the third quarter of 2013, before a run of weak economic figures and comments from Fed officials themselves scared people again into thinking that the markets would never end up seeing another rate hike, like, ever again.

from MacroScope:

New EU takes shape

juncker.jpg

The new EU aristocracy will be put in place this week with the European Parliament to confirm Jean-Claude Juncker as the next European Commission President today and then EU leaders gathering for a summit on Wednesday at which they will work out who gets the other top jobs in Brussels.

Although Juncker, who will make a statement to the parliament today which may shed some light on his policy priorities, is supposed to decide the 27 commissioner posts – one for each country – in reality this will be an almighty horse-trading operation.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2014/15 reveals priorities, sets the stage

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The new Narendra Modi government rides on a long wishlist of policies and reforms, with limited resources. Budget 2014/15, as expected, reveals the government’s priorities in the near and medium term.

Arun Jaitley poses as he leaves his office to present the union budget for the 2014/15 fiscal year in New DelhiThe inflation moderation imperative overshadows near-term headline growth desires, manifested in aggressive (albeit challenging) fiscal deficit targets. The projected fiscal deficit of 4.1 percent (3.6 percent of GDP in FY16) versus the 4.6 percent recorded in FY14, is in line with expectations. The reduction in the budget deficit is driven by hoped-for revenue growth rather than depressed spending growth.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Minute by minutes

The bond market remains pretty much tethered to the 2.50 percent to 2.60 percent range that's prevailed for the 10-year note for quite some time now, with the primary catalyst being today's release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its most recent meeting. The relevant data that investors are probably paying most attention to - the jobs report last week, the JOLTS jobs survey, shows some more things that is meant to keep the Fed engaged rather than moving toward an imminent increase in rates. The quit rate - the rate at which people leave jobs for others - is still historically a bit on the low side, not at a level that would make the Fed more comfortable that the kind of labor-market dynamism needed for the Fed to shift to raising interest rates. Fact is, the central bank just isn't there yet.

And with that in mind, that means those investors clamoring for higher rates are probably going to continue to see their expectations unmet for a longer period of time, and with sovereign buyers from Europe and Japan wandering outside those halls, there's an ongoing bid in the market that continues to thwart short-sellers who are just waiting for that right moment to bet against the bond market. That's been a lonely trade of late - or rather, a popular trade, just a big loser as trades go.

from MacroScope:

U.S. hiring may be rebounding, but wage growth is not

AThe U.S. job market has finally turned a corner. What is remarkable is that it has taken so long.

Companies have finally begun taking on staff in consistently greater numbers, half a decade after the end of a deep recession brought on by one of the most punishing financial crises in history.

from MacroScope:

Deflating euro zone inflation expectations

EThe euro zone is not deflating, it's just at risk of a too-prolonged period of low inflation, says European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

Judging by recent evidence, it might be very prolonged, which is bad news for an economy struggling to shift out of low gear.

from MacroScope:

Clock ticking

Amid all the furore over David Cameron’s failure to block Jean-Claude Juncker for the top EU job at a summit last week, the bloc’s leaders signed a free-trade pact with Ukraine and said they could impose more sanctions on Russia unless rebels de-escalate in the east of the country by Monday.

In turn, Ukraine president Poroshenko extended a ceasefire by government forces until 10 p.m. local time today.

from Data Dive:

Inflating CPI

Inflation is finally looking up. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in May -- the biggest one-month jump since February 2013 and twice what economists expected. This rise  could have implications for the Fed’s two-day policy meeting this week, though Reuters reports the expectation remains the same: the taper will continue, but an interest rate hike is still months off.

cpi-may14

Reuters has more context about the CPI report:

May's rise in consumer prices built on a 0.3 percent advance in April. With tensions escalating in Iraq, a major world oil producer, inflation is likely to push higher in the coming months.

from Breakingviews:

Can sterling hit $2? Only with a perfect storm

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. 

Sterling has touched $1.70 and is on the brink of bursting ranges which have confined it for five years. Could a resurgent pound return to pre-crisis levels of $2?

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