The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
from Expert Zone:
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
The Nifty rallied past the psychological mark of 8,500 for the first time in 11 months to close at 8,541. Global markets were buoyed by better-than-expected U.S. jobs data and cheered the victory of Japan’s ruling coalition in the upper house election. PM Shinzo Abe is expected to unveil a fresh stimulus package to help the country’s stagnant economy.
Wednesday's British pay data showing wages rose only 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter could well be the straw that broke the camel's back for anyone still expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates anytime soon.
Financial markets and borrowers rooting for the Reserve Bank of India to ease policy this year could be in for a disappointment - in stark contrast to 2015 when it lopped 125 basis points off the repo rate.
Forecasts for when the Bank of England will raise rates have been put off into the future for the seventh time since Mark Carney became Bank of England Governor nearly three years ago.
The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to cut interest rates just once in 2016, as most analysts see retail inflation rising slightly above the central bank's target, but there is a decent chance it could cut more aggressively, as it did last year.
The world economy may be set for another year like 2015, with modest growth in developed economies offsetting persistent weakness elsewhere but generating very little inflation and keeping interest rates low.
So much for forward guidance. The largest proportion of Britons on record -- almost a quarter -- have "no idea" where interest rates are heading over the next 12 months, according to the Bank of England's quarterly survey of the public's views on the economy.