Reuters blog archive
Foreign ministerial talks in Paris yesterday made little progress on Ukraine. Russia rejected Western demands that its forces in Crimea should return to their bases and its foreign minister refused to recognise his Ukrainian counterpart. Moscow continues to assert that the troops that have seized control of the Black Sea peninsula are not under its command. The West is pushing for international monitors to go in.
Today, at least some of the focus switches to Brussels where EU leaders will hold an emergency summit with a twin agenda of how to help the new government in Kiev and possible sanctions against Russia. On the latter, Europe has appeared more reticent than Washington not least because of its deep financial and energy ties, none more so than Germany and Britain.
The bloc yesterday offered Ukraine’s new government 11 billion euros in financial aid over the next two years, contingent on it reaching a deal with the IMF. It will also freeze the assets of ousted president Viktor Yanukovich and 17 others seen as culpable for violation of human rights – around 80 people were killed in the capital last month as they protested against Yanukovich’s rule. Kiev caused some market wobbles by saying it would look at restructuring its foreign currency debt.
NATO will cut back on cooperation with Russia and suspend planning for a joint mission linked to Syrian chemical weapons while increasing its engagement with Ukraine's new leadership.
Is it war if no shots have been fired? The Ukrainians say so but Moscow, its grip on Crimea now pretty much complete, says it is merely protecting its people. The rest of the world and its financial markets watch on very uneasily.
There is virtually no chance of any western military response after Vladimir Putin declared he had the right to invade his neighbour – NATO expressed "grave concern" but did not come up with any significant measures to apply pressure on. But there will be a diplomatic and economic price to pay.
This is the thing about delaying the new Fed chair's follow-up testimony by two weeks due to bad weather, you actually make the second hearing something that's potentially interesting. (It will depend, of course, on whether members of the Senate Committee ask provocative questions, and while you can lead a horse to water, well, you know.)
In the interim two weeks since Janet Yellen last appeared before Congress, the U.S. economic picture has gotten much more muddled. That's mostly because of poor retail sales and employment figures, and the out-of-control situation in Ukraine which has led to a regional flight of some assets. There's also been some interesting comments from the likes of Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, who suggested the Fed should be paying more attention to the formation of asset bubbles and the use of monetary policy to curb them. That anyone is surprised at this shows how pervasive the "Fed put" option has become in the discussion of Fed activities, so we've really lowered expectations here.
from Global Investing:
No one will really know how Lithuania will impact European Central Bank monetary policy until the country gets a seat at the table. That is expected to happen in 2015, provided the last of the three Baltic nations meets the criteria to become the euro zone's 19th member. We'll all find out in early June.
The ECB's monetary policy remains at its loosest (main refinancing rate is just 0.25 pct) since the bank assumed central banking responsibilities for the euro area 15 years ago. My Frankfurt-based colleague, Eva Taylor, explained earlier this month that the addition of Lithuania will change the voting patterns of the ECB, curbing smaller members' perceived influence and giving more weight to the center.
Much ink has been spilled over the past several months over when the Bank of England will eventually raise interest rates from a record low of 0.5 percent, and if they'll do it before the Federal Reserve does. The pound is trading near a five-year high against a basket of currencies as a result.
BoE Governor Mark Carney and other Monetary Policy Committee members have tried to remind the public and businesses at every chance they are given that a rate rise is still a way off - likely at least a year - and that when it's time for the central bank to lift rates, it will do so gradually.
from Hugo Dixon:
The euro zone has gone from the emergency room to rehab. As often with patients, the question is how to maintain a stiff exercise regime now the immediate danger is over.
Germany has an idea. At December’s summit, it got the rest of the zone to agree in principle to what are called “partnerships for growth, jobs and competitiveness”. The idea is that governments will sign contracts committing them to do things like reform their labour markets, liberalise product markets and improve the efficiency of their public sectors. Countries such as Greece and Cyprus, which are already in bailout programmes, wouldn’t be covered.
from The Great Debate:
A new report from the United States Postal Service inspector general proposes that the agency offer non-bank financial services, including payday loans. Opinion pieces and blog posts praised this idea as a way for the post office to solve its fiscal woes while reaching a portion of Americans outside the traditional banking system. A Reuters “Great Debate” piece, “Transforming Post Offices into banks”), called the proposal a “win-win.”
These pieces overlook some practical problems, however, and leave numerous questions unanswered about implementation. While government and charitable-sponsored financial services should play a role in consumer lending, they cannot replace market-based solutions.
To most people, the idea of falling prices sounds like a good thing. But it poses serious economic and financial risks - just ask the Japanese, who only now finally have the upper hand in a 20-year battle to drag their economy out of deflation.
That front is shifting westward, to the euro zone.
Deflation tempts consumers to postpone spending and businesses to delay investment because they expect prices to be lower in the future. This slows growth and puts upward pressure on unemployment. It also increases the real debt burden of debtors, from consumers to companies to governments.
Dramatic twist in the Ukraine saga last night with a conversation between a State Department official and the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine posted on YouTube which appeared to show the official, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, deliberating on the make-up of the next government in Kiev.
That led to a furious tit-for-tat with Moscow accusing Washington of planning a coup and the United States in turn saying Russia had leaked the video, which carried subtitles in Russian. A Kremlin aide said Moscow might block U.S. "interference" in Kiev.
The European Central Bank meets today with emerging market disorder high on its agenda.
It’s probably too early to force a policy move – particularly since the next set of ECB economic and inflation forecasts are due in March – but it’s an unwelcome development at a time when inflation is already uncomfortably low, dropping further to just 0.7 percent in January, way below the ECB’s target of close to but below two percent.