from MacroScope:

G20 treads familiar ground

By Mike Peacock
February 10, 2015

OECD Secretary General Gurria casts his shadow on the podium as he speaks during a news conference in the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Istanbul

G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Istanbul will pledge to act decisively on monetary and fiscal policy if needed to combat the risk of  stagnation, according to a draft communique obtained by Reuters last night. As has been customary at these summits, a lot of the discussion implicitly centres on Germany.

from MacroScope:

EU talks investment, Germany balances budget

By Mike Peacock
January 13, 2015

juncker.jpg

The European Commission will unveil legislative proposals for its 315 billion euro investment plan and the findings of a public consultation on the investment elements of a planned EU-U.S. free trade deal which could significantly boost growth.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Equity bull market ongoing as Fed interest rate raise “years away” – Cumberland’s Kotok

December 3, 2014

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high for the third straight day this week. The S&P 500, since breaking the 2,000 level on Oct. 31 has since remained above that level.

from MacroScope:

EU investment plan; game changer or empty vessel?

By Mike Peacock
November 26, 2014

European Central Bank President Draghi and Eurogroup President -Juncker talk during a news conference in Nicosia, Cyprus

New European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will unveil his investment plan for the bloc to the European Parliament today which aims to generate 315 billion euros of investment and lift growth onto a higher plane. The details were put out last night and there’s no new money in it. Instead, 21 billion euros of funding is expected to leverage private investment of a whopping 15 times that amount.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Sinking mortgage rates disguise investor fear – economist

October 27, 2014

A dip in 30-year mortgage rates to their lowest level in more than a year and stronger U.S. housing data on Friday appeared to be the green shoots of the next phase of U.S. economic recovery, that being the housing market.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

China economic reforms may result in $14.4 trillion GDP, growth at 6 percent – Asia Society report

October 23, 2014

Sweeping economic reform initiated by China President Xi Jinping in November 2013 marked a turning point for the world's second biggest economy. If implemented fully, China's potential GDP growth can be sustained at 6 percent through 2020. One risk: Falling short of that growth rate could result in growth at half that projection, or worse, leading to a new economic crisis, according to a new study.

from Global Investing:

Strong dollar, weak oil and emerging markets growth

October 17, 2014

Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth.  Oil's 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar's strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Activist investors don’t wait for red to sell

October 15, 2014

Stocks bleeding red are generally a good play for a short seller, who is betting on falling values. Yet activist investors do not wait for rattled markets the likes of which befell markets on Wednesday to sell short a particular company’s stock. Embedded in their sales pitch are well-crafted theories that attempt to challenge Wall Street’s sell-side mentality and, with that, reap a potential cash windfall.

from Global Investing:

Measuring political risk in emerging markets

October 10, 2014

(Corrects to say EI Sturdza is UK investment firm, not Swiss)

Commerzbank analyst Simon Quijano-Evans recently analysed credit ratings for emerging market countries and concluded that there is a strong tendency to "under-rate" emerging economies - that is they are generally rated lower than developed market "equals" that have similar profiles of debt, investment or reform. The reason, according to Quijano-Evans, is that ratings assessments tend to be "blurred by political risk which is difficult to quantify and is usually higher in the developing world compared with richer peers.

from Breakingviews:

Asian fight against capital flight helps dollar

October 8, 2014

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.