Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Global Investing:

Strong dollar, weak oil and emerging markets growth

Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth.  Oil's 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar's strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.

Michael Howell, managing director of the CrossBorder Capital consultancy estimates the negative effect of the stronger dollar on global liquidity (in simple terms, the amount of capital available for investment and spending) outweighs the positives from falling oil prices by a ratio of 10 to 1. Not only does it raise funding costs for non-U.S. banks and companies, it also usually forces other central banks to keep monetary policy tight, especially in countries with high inflation or external debt levels. Howell says:

If you get a strong dollar and intervention by EM cbanks what it means is monetary tightening...The big decision is: do they allow currencies to devalue or do they defend them? But when they use reserves to protect their currencies, there is an implicit policy tightening.

The tightening happens because central bank dollar sales tend to suck out supply of the local currency from markets, tightening liquidity.   That effectively drives up the cost of money, as banks and companies scramble for cash to meet their daily commitments.  Central banks can of course offset interventions via so-called sterilisations - for instance when they buy dollars to curb their currencies' strength, they can issue bonds to suck up the excess cash from the market. To ease the tight money supply problem they can in theory print more cash to supply banks.  But while many emerging central banks did sterilise interventions in the post-crisis years when their currencies were appreciating, they are less likely to do so when they are trying to stem depreciation, says UBS strategist Manik Narain.  So what is happening is that (according to Narain):

from Edward Hadas:

Call that money-printing?

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Finance doesn’t get the disrespect it deserves. Nothing about money and credit is sacred – certainly not quantity of currency outstanding. The political and monetary authorities should feel free to add and subtract money as needed to help the economy function better.

from Breakingviews:

Biggest risk of geopolitics is as a distraction

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Investors consider geopolitics the most important risk to financial markets over the next year. That judgment, reported in a Barclays survey this week, shows people taking greater cues from headlines than numbers.

from Breakingviews:

M&A targets can get stiffed when they “go shop”

By Reynolds Holding
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Shopping ’til you drop doesn’t really work for merger targets. The so-called “go shop” strategy of seeking higher bids after signing up a buyer is designed to ensure top dollar is paid. More often, it leads to final prices that are lower than they otherwise would be, new research suggests. Tweaks to deals like Media General’s buyout of Lin Media may mean sellers are wising up, though, portending better value for shareholders.

from Breakingviews:

Hedge fund customers’ yachts washing further away

By Martin Hutchinson
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Hedge fund customers’ yachts are washing further away. The flood of money – now $2.7 trillion – in hedge funds has squashed returns below public stock markets. Private equity doesn’t seem to be doing much better. Investors beware.

from Breakingviews:

Rob Cox: The worry now is a brewing M&A bubble

By Rob Cox
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Stop worrying about the tech bubble – there may be an even bigger one inflating beyond the confines of Silicon Valley. The corporate urge to merge has gone into global hyper-drive this year. Deal activity has surged as investors egg companies on and bid up the shares of acquirers well beyond mathematical explication, or prudence. As new metrics from interested parties are trotted out to justify the irrational, it’s time to exercise caution.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Behind Wall Street’s anxiety

The recent economic news has been about as investor-friendly as anyone could imagine.

It started with last week’s strong U.S. employment figures; continued through Tuesday’s reassuring International Monetary Fund forecasts, which put the probability of avoiding a global recession this year to 99.9 percent, and culminated in dovish Federal Reserve minutes, which soothed concerns about an earlier than expected  increase in U.S. interest rates.

from Alison Frankel:

Sotheby’s shareholders defend activist investors in suit vs board

The heat surrounding so-called activist investors -- hedge funds that buy up big chunks of a company's stock, then leverage their position to mount proxy campaigns or otherwise force boards to change the way the company is managed -- could hardly be more intense than it is now. Well, okay, maybe there would be even more controversy if Michael Lewis wrote a book about a genius upstart who defied accepted deal conventions and revolutionized corporate takeover battles. But putting aside the Wall Street tizzy inspired by this week's publication of Lewis's new book about high-frequency trading, the deal world's favorite topic remains activist investors like Carl Icahn, Paul Singer, William Ackman and Dan Loeb.

Just in the last two weeks, Chief Justice Leo Strine of the Delaware Supreme Court published his extraordinary essay on shareholder activism at the Columbia Law Review, the Wall Street Journal did a fabulous story on hedge funds tipping each other off about their targets, and Martin Lipton of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz -- whose avowed disdain for short-term investors has recently manifested in litigation with Icahn -- revealed at the Tulane M&A fest that there are actually a couple of activist funds he respects. (He said he wouldn't go so far as to say he "likes" them, though.)

from Global Investing:

Braving emerging stocks again

It's a brave investor who will venture into emerging markets these days, let alone start a new fund. Data from Thomson Reuters company Lipper shows declining appetite for new emerging market funds - while almost 200 emerging debt and equity funds were launched in Europe back in 2011, the tally so far  this year is just 10.

But Shaw Wagener, a portfolio manager at U.S. investor American Funds has gone against the trend, launching an emerging growth and income fund earlier this month.

from Alison Frankel:

Strine: Stop shareholder activism from hurting American investors

This country's most important arbiter of corporate law - Chief Justice Leo Strine of the Delaware Supreme Court - believes that shareholder democracy has run amok. In a startling new essay for the Columbia Law Review, "Can We Do Better by Ordinary Investors?" Strine outlines the deleterious long-term effects of subjecting corporate decision-makers to shareholder votes dominated by short-term investors. These ill consequences range, according to Strine, from the outright dollars corporations must spend to educate shareholders about everything they're entitled to vote on all the way to excessive risk-taking and regulatory corner-cutting by executives and directors worried about delivering quick returns lest they be ousted by shareholders. Strine is deeply worried about a divergence of interests between money managers, who wield the power of shareholder votes, and ordinary investors in their funds, who are typically saving for retirement or their kids' education. He's convinced that the entire American economy will suffer unless short-term investors are reined in.

Strine's diagnosis is interesting enough, though he's previously written about what he considers to be the cancer of short-term investing. In the new essay, though, he also suggests a cure: eight actual suggestions to restore power to corporate boards and long-term investors (plus a pie-in-the-sky fantasy about changing the U.S. tax code to encourage shareholders to take a long view of their investments). Strine, who calls himself "someone who embraces the incrementalist, pragmatic, liberal tradition of addressing the world as it actually is," argues that his proposals do not roll back shareholders' hard-won rights to a voice in corporate affairs. Instead, he says, he's "trying to create a system for use of those rights that is more beneficial to the creation of durable wealth for them and for society as a whole."

  •