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from Anatole Kaletsky:

Behind Wall Street’s anxiety

The recent economic news has been about as investor-friendly as anyone could imagine.

It started with last week’s strong U.S. employment figures; continued through Tuesday’s reassuring International Monetary Fund forecasts, which put the probability of avoiding a global recession this year to 99.9 percent, and culminated in dovish Federal Reserve minutes, which soothed concerns about an earlier than expected  increase in U.S. interest rates.

Considering all this good news, investors could justifiably feel surprised -- even shocked -- by Wall Street’s sharp falls this week. By Thursday afternoon, the Standard & Poor’s 500 had given back its entire gain for the year, and the Nasdaq 100 gauge of leading technology stocks had suffered its biggest setback since 2011. Many market analysts interpreted the negative reaction to good news as a classic sign of a market top, warning that the uninterrupted rise in share prices that began more than five years ago is overdue for a sharp reversal.

But looking at the economic and financial data, it was hard to see justification for such anxiety. Last week’s rebound in U.S. employment growth -- the crucial monthly statistic that tends to set the tone for asset markets around the world -- could only be interpreted as good news. Especially after the shockingly weak December payrolls that triggered the global equity correction at the start of the year.

from Alison Frankel:

Sotheby’s shareholders defend activist investors in suit vs board

The heat surrounding so-called activist investors -- hedge funds that buy up big chunks of a company's stock, then leverage their position to mount proxy campaigns or otherwise force boards to change the way the company is managed -- could hardly be more intense than it is now. Well, okay, maybe there would be even more controversy if Michael Lewis wrote a book about a genius upstart who defied accepted deal conventions and revolutionized corporate takeover battles. But putting aside the Wall Street tizzy inspired by this week's publication of Lewis's new book about high-frequency trading, the deal world's favorite topic remains activist investors like Carl Icahn, Paul Singer, William Ackman and Dan Loeb.

Just in the last two weeks, Chief Justice Leo Strine of the Delaware Supreme Court published his extraordinary essay on shareholder activism at the Columbia Law Review, the Wall Street Journal did a fabulous story on hedge funds tipping each other off about their targets, and Martin Lipton of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz -- whose avowed disdain for short-term investors has recently manifested in litigation with Icahn -- revealed at the Tulane M&A fest that there are actually a couple of activist funds he respects. (He said he wouldn't go so far as to say he "likes" them, though.)

from Global Investing:

Braving emerging stocks again

It's a brave investor who will venture into emerging markets these days, let alone start a new fund. Data from Thomson Reuters company Lipper shows declining appetite for new emerging market funds - while almost 200 emerging debt and equity funds were launched in Europe back in 2011, the tally so far  this year is just 10.

But Shaw Wagener, a portfolio manager at U.S. investor American Funds has gone against the trend, launching an emerging growth and income fund earlier this month.

from Alison Frankel:

Strine: Stop shareholder activism from hurting American investors

This country's most important arbiter of corporate law - Chief Justice Leo Strine of the Delaware Supreme Court - believes that shareholder democracy has run amok. In a startling new essay for the Columbia Law Review, "Can We Do Better by Ordinary Investors?" Strine outlines the deleterious long-term effects of subjecting corporate decision-makers to shareholder votes dominated by short-term investors. These ill consequences range, according to Strine, from the outright dollars corporations must spend to educate shareholders about everything they're entitled to vote on all the way to excessive risk-taking and regulatory corner-cutting by executives and directors worried about delivering quick returns lest they be ousted by shareholders. Strine is deeply worried about a divergence of interests between money managers, who wield the power of shareholder votes, and ordinary investors in their funds, who are typically saving for retirement or their kids' education. He's convinced that the entire American economy will suffer unless short-term investors are reined in.

Strine's diagnosis is interesting enough, though he's previously written about what he considers to be the cancer of short-term investing. In the new essay, though, he also suggests a cure: eight actual suggestions to restore power to corporate boards and long-term investors (plus a pie-in-the-sky fantasy about changing the U.S. tax code to encourage shareholders to take a long view of their investments). Strine, who calls himself "someone who embraces the incrementalist, pragmatic, liberal tradition of addressing the world as it actually is," argues that his proposals do not roll back shareholders' hard-won rights to a voice in corporate affairs. Instead, he says, he's "trying to create a system for use of those rights that is more beneficial to the creation of durable wealth for them and for society as a whole."

from Unstructured Finance:

Jim Chanos, bad news bear, urges market prudence

Prominent short-seller Jim Chanos is probably one of the last true “bad news bears” you will find on Wall Street these days, save for Jim Grant and Nouriel Roubini. Almost everywhere you turn, money managers still are bullish on U.S. equities going into 2014 even after the Standard & Poor’s 500’s 27 percent returns year-to-date and the Nasdaq is back to levels not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble in 1999.

“We’re back to a glass half-full environment as opposed to a glass half-empty environment,” Chanos told Reuters during a wide ranging hour-long discussion two weeks ago. “If you're the typical investor, it's probably time to be a little bit more cautious.”

from Global Investing:

Steroids, punch bowls and the music still playing: stocks dance into 2014

Four years into the stock market party fueled by a punch bowl overflowing with trillions of dollars of central bank liquidity, you'd think a hangover might be looming.

But almost all of the fund managers attending the London leg of the Reuters Global Investment Summit this week - with some $4 trillion of assets under management - say the party will continue into 2014.

from Global Investing:

Emerging equities: out of the doghouse

Emerging stocks, in the doghouse for months and months, haven't done too badly of late. The main EM index,  has rallied more than 11 percent since its end-August troughs, outgunning the S&P 500's 3 percent rise in this period. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett reminds us of the extreme underweight positioning in emerging stocks last month, as revealed by his bank's monthly investor survey.  Anyone putting on a long EM-short UK equities trade back then would have been in the money with returns of 540 basis points, he says.

Undoubtedly, the postponement of the Fed taper is the main reason for the rally.  Another big inducement is that valuations look very cheap (forward P/E is around 9.9 versus a 10-year average of 10.8) .

from Global Investing:

Bernanke Put for emerging markets? Not really

The Fed's unexpectedly dovish position last week has sparked a rally in emerging markets -- not only did the U.S. central bank's all-powerful boss Ben Bernanke keep his $85 billion-a-month money printing programme in place, he also mentioned emerging markets in his post-meeting news conference, noting the potential impact of Fed policy on the developing world. All that, along with the likelihood of the dovish Janet Yellen succeeding Bernanke was described by Commerzbank analysts as "a triple whammy for EM." A positive triple whammy, presumably.

Now it may be going too far to conclude there is some kind of Bernanke Put for emerging markets of the sort the U.S. stock market is said to enjoy -- the assumption, dating back to Alan Greenspan's days, that things cant go too wrong for markets because the Fed boss will wade in with lower rates to right things. But the fact remains that global pressure on the Fed has been mounting to avoid any kind of violent disruption to the flow of cheap money -- remember the cacophony at this month's G20 summit? Second, the spike in U.S. yields may have been the main motivation for standing pat but the Treasury selloff was at least partly driven by emerging central banks which have needed to dip into their reserve stash to defend their own currencies. According to IMF estimates, developing countries hold some $3.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, of which just under half is in China. (See here for my colleague Mike Dolan's June 12 article on the EM-Fed linkages)

from Global Investing:

Russian stocks: big overweight

Emerging stocks are not much in favour these days -- Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's survey of global fund managers finds that in August just a net 18 percent of investors were overweight emerging markets, among the lowest since 2001. Within the sector though, there are some outright winners and quite a few losers. Russian stocks are back in favour, the survey found, with a whopping 92 percent of fund managers overweight. Allocations to Russia doubled from last month (possibly at the expense of South African where underweight positions are now at 100 percent, making it the most unloved market of all) See below for graphic:

BofA points out its analyst Michael Harris recently turned bullish on Russian stocks advising clients to go for a "Big Overweight" on a market that he reckons is best positioned to benefit from the recovery in global growth.

from Global Investing:

Tapping India’s diaspora to salvage rupee

What will save the Indian rupee? There's an election next year so forget about the stuff that's really needed -- structural reforms to labour and tax laws, easing business regulations and scrapping inefficient subsidies. The quickest and most effective short-term option may be a dollar bond issued to the Indian diaspora overseas which could boost central bank coffers about $20 billion.

The option was mooted a month ago when the rupee's slide started to get into panic territory but many Indian policymakers are not so keen on the idea

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