from MacroScope:

Potholes could be dead ahead in the road soon after Fed rate hike

November 20, 2015

Patches on top of patches covering potholes litter a road in Sonoma County, California, May 9, 2013. Harrison, a local resident and attorney, is part of a grass-roots campaign to fix the crumbling roads of Sonoma County, which is struggling with the same type of government financial crisis that has driven California cities such as Stockton and San Bernardino into bankruptcy. Picture taken May 9, 2013.   REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach   (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TRAVEL) - RTX1053C

The Federal Reserve's planned smooth and gradual rate hike path may be bumpier than anticipated if U.S. economic growth over the next several months and punishingly cold winter weather follow a well-established recent pattern.

from MacroScope:

What’s China gonna do? Forget about it. What’s Yellen gonna do?

October 30, 2015

By now, you've probably heard this catchy song about China's five-year plan on Youtube. If not, take a listen.

from MacroScope:

U.S. growth probably slowed sharply in Q3…and winter is coming

October 29, 2015

RTR4U8M1.jpgIt's probably a good thing the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting with a strong signal of its intentions, because GDP growth data expected later on Thursday are unlikely to cement rate hike views one way or another.

from Breakingviews:

Uncertain central bankers leave markets stranded

October 16, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Mid-caps will be in action amid consolidation

By Ambareesh Baliga
September 20, 2015

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A trader works underneath a television screen showing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announcing that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York September 17, 2015.  REUTERS/Lucas Jackson  The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates came as a relief for Asian markets, especially in India where the Nifty ended the week at 7,982, or 2.5 percent higher. However, U.S. and European markets corrected sharply on Friday due to Fed chief Janet Yellen’s comments over China’s economic slowdown.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Now What?

September 18, 2015

The Fed has a lot of supporters among those who believe it wasn’t time to raise rates. Most primary dealers moved their expectations on a rate increase prior to the Fed meeting, the fed funds market was clearly signaling a very low chance of a rate increase, and plenty of commentators, domestic and international, expressed concern about the Fed moving rates at a time when it just wasn’t prudent to do so.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Fed Outlook: Bet on Chaos, and All Else a Toss-Up

September 17, 2015

With great power comes great responsibility, as a wise comic-book character once said. And so the Federal Reserve's decision this afternoon bears the weight of re-establishing credibility in its ability to shift policy in more than one direction, communicate to markets its thinking, and yet - if it raises rates - to soothe investors concerned that several more rate increases are in the offing. (The Fed has repeatedly said this isn't the case, but who knows how markets interpret things sometimes.)

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Janet Kick a Hole In the Sky

July 29, 2015

The July meeting was never meant to be much of a thing with the Federal Reserve, and that’s exactly how it’s worked out. The Fed seems like it is still targeting a modest increase in rates in September, with – as many strategists have already noted – the real action to come later on down the road, as Janet Yellen and others have argued that the first move isn’t the one to really worry about.

from MacroScope:

U.S. Fed interest rate “crawl-off” not yet fixed for September

July 28, 2015

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????A U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September is almost certain according to many forecasters and investors, but the decision to tighten policy for the first time in nearly a decade is not as clear-cut as it may appear.

from MacroScope:

Fed: behind the curve, or too trigger happy? Neither

July 15, 2015

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????As the U.S. Federal Reserve edges closer to its first interest hike in nearly a decade, its critics are lining up into one of two camps: either the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve, and will have to grapple with runaway inflation very soon; or the Fed seems overzealous in wanting to get interest rates back to what it would call a normal level and instead should wait until late this year or next before hiking.