from MacroScope:

UK pay may be taking off but rates will stay grounded for a while yet

July 2, 2015

The Bank of England is seen through columns in LondonBritish wage growth will outstrip the Bank of England's forecast this year but that doesn't mean the first rate hike will come sooner.

from The Great Debate:

Will someone please put Fannie and Freddie out of their misery?

By Mark Zandi
May 7, 2015

Toll Brothers luxury homes are shown sold before construction is completed in Oceanside

Toll Brothers luxury homes are shown sold before construction is completed in Oceanside, California, August 20, 2013. REUTERS/Mike Blake

from MacroScope:

Data isn’t as objective as the Fed might have you believe

April 28, 2015

SFFedTshirt.jpgFed officials say they will be “data-dependent” when it comes to making monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President John Williams feels so strongly about it, he’s even printed up a T-shirt to get that message across. But truth be told, data-dependency is not as objective as it sounds. Data doesn’t dictate policy; it’s the interpretation of data that’s key. What is rate-hike-worthy data to one policymaker is keep-the-pedal-to-the-metal data for another. Take, for instance, U.S. GDP growth. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker says he expects GDP growth to average 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year, a pace that would justify a Fed rate hike in June. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expects 3 percent growth this year, and does not believe even that would justify a rate hike until the first half of 2016. So what does it tell you about monetary policy if you see GDP growth of 2.5 percent? Not a whole lot, judging from these two. And the statements of other Fed officials are hardly more helpful. Indeed, as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said recently, “I don't think it is advisable to approach such a decision with rigid quantitative triggers in mind.” Watch the data, sure. But don’t assume the data will tell you much about the exact timing of the rate hike. Monetary policy – it’s subjective. Maybe some policymaker will print that on a T-shirt.

from MacroScope:

Déjà vu? Fed may struggle to hike if U.S. optimism fades for H2

April 28, 2015

RTR4VVNE.jpgThe U.S. Federal Reserve may find it even more tough to raise interest rates as the year wears on if dwindling expectations for growth are any guide.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

NFP may surprise to the downside, weigh on ‘15 Fed rate hike, economist, analyst says

March 5, 2015

The monthly U.S. nonfarm payroll data for February will be released on Friday and with it, another swarm of speculation as to whether it will prompt the Fed to raise rates this year will follow.

from Unstructured Finance:

Jeffrey Gundlach, on his year as new ‘King of Bonds’

By Jennifer Ablan
December 15, 2014

Gundlach, star bond investor and head of DoubleLine Capital LP,  is photographed during an interview in New YorkWhen Bill Gross shocked the investment world on Sept. 26 by storming out of Pimco, the most prominent bond investor in the world didn’t stop leaving people stunned.
It was later revealed by Reuters that Gross had paid an unlikely visit to his fiercest rival: Jeffrey Gundlach.
For two decades, the two had no relationship or interaction at all, even though their personas were intertwined, compared and contrasted often in the financial media and by other bond market players. (Morningstar named Gross "Fixed Income Manager of the Decade" in 2010, an award for which Gundlach was a finalist. Then in 2011, Barron's magazine anointed Gundlach as the new King of Bonds.)
Gross not only unexpectedly departed his firm for under-the-radar Janus Capital but also considered joining Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital. Gundlach said the so-called “Dream Team” didn’t work out but “you never know what will happen in the future.”
Overall, the gesture by Gross officially affirmed the investment world’s long-held view that Gundlach had been anointed the new Bond King.
What follows are excerpts of my hour-long interview – unfortunately, not on the north loggia of Gundlach's Los Angeles home -- about Gundlach’s investment calls (old and news ones), his competitors, the future of fixed income and his firm’s fifth year anniversary which was celebrated on Sunday.

from Breakingviews:

Yellen should gird for activist investors

December 9, 2014

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. 

Janet Yellen faces a long list of challenges for 2015. The Federal Reserve chair must keep her fellow governors aligned on the timing of interest rate increases while battling a Congress hell-bent on circumscribing the U.S. central bank’s powers. A less obvious trouble spot for Yellen’s year two in the job may be restive shareholders of systemically important financial institutions.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Equity bull market ongoing as Fed interest rate raise “years away” – Cumberland’s Kotok

December 3, 2014

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high for the third straight day this week. The S&P 500, since breaking the 2,000 level on Oct. 31 has since remained above that level.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Fed should take “Goldilocks” jobs report with grain of salt; wage growth still main story – Rivkin

November 7, 2014

Friday's jobs report was something that the market could take in stride and the U.S. Federal Reserve could breeze over in its interest rate policy plotting. Even as the unemployment rate sank to a six-year low, wage growth remains stagnant. Wage growth has to become more robust and consistent before the Fed embarks on raising interest rates, most analysts agree.

from MacroScope:

Central banking elite under one roof

By Mike Peacock
November 7, 2014

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Yellen speaks with European Central Bank President Draghi at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole

After European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi managed to mend fences and get his colleagues to sign up to his 1 trillion euros or so target to push into the ailing euro zone economy, Paris hosts its version of the Jackson Hole central bankers meeting.