from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Yellen The Gradualist

March 29, 2016

Investors remain fickle in a market that gives them a few nice pieces of data only to yank away that optimism. Monday’s figures on personal consumption and gross domestic product (revised lower, as expected) again brought out the chattering classes nervous that the Fed will suddenly stand fast on its seeming expectation to raise rates again before long.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The gradualist Fed chair

March 29, 2016

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen removes her glasses during a press conference following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington March 16, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

from MacroScope:

November U.S. jobs report could be a bright spot in fading outlook for hiring

December 4, 2015

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the "Federal Reserve's Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System" in Washington November 4, 2015.       REUTERS/Gary Cameron  - RTX1UQNK

The U.S. November jobs report is expected shortly, and in all likelihood it will be a solid one. But forecasts around future employment are not quite so optimistic.

from MacroScope:

Potholes could be dead ahead in the road soon after Fed rate hike

November 20, 2015

Patches on top of patches covering potholes litter a road in Sonoma County, California, May 9, 2013. Harrison, a local resident and attorney, is part of a grass-roots campaign to fix the crumbling roads of Sonoma County, which is struggling with the same type of government financial crisis that has driven California cities such as Stockton and San Bernardino into bankruptcy. Picture taken May 9, 2013.   REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach   (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TRAVEL) - RTX1053C

The Federal Reserve's planned smooth and gradual rate hike path may be bumpier than anticipated if U.S. economic growth over the next several months and punishingly cold winter weather follow a well-established recent pattern.

from MacroScope:

What’s China gonna do? Forget about it. What’s Yellen gonna do?

October 30, 2015

By now, you've probably heard this catchy song about China's five-year plan on Youtube. If not, take a listen.

from MacroScope:

U.S. growth probably slowed sharply in Q3…and winter is coming

October 29, 2015

RTR4U8M1.jpgIt's probably a good thing the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting with a strong signal of its intentions, because GDP growth data expected later on Thursday are unlikely to cement rate hike views one way or another.

from Breakingviews:

Uncertain central bankers leave markets stranded

October 16, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Mid-caps will be in action amid consolidation

September 20, 2015

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A trader works underneath a television screen showing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announcing that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York September 17, 2015.  REUTERS/Lucas Jackson  The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates came as a relief for Asian markets, especially in India where the Nifty ended the week at 7,982, or 2.5 percent higher. However, U.S. and European markets corrected sharply on Friday due to Fed chief Janet Yellen’s comments over China’s economic slowdown.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Now What?

September 18, 2015

The Fed has a lot of supporters among those who believe it wasn’t time to raise rates. Most primary dealers moved their expectations on a rate increase prior to the Fed meeting, the fed funds market was clearly signaling a very low chance of a rate increase, and plenty of commentators, domestic and international, expressed concern about the Fed moving rates at a time when it just wasn’t prudent to do so.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Fed Outlook: Bet on Chaos, and All Else a Toss-Up

September 17, 2015

With great power comes great responsibility, as a wise comic-book character once said. And so the Federal Reserve's decision this afternoon bears the weight of re-establishing credibility in its ability to shift policy in more than one direction, communicate to markets its thinking, and yet - if it raises rates - to soothe investors concerned that several more rate increases are in the offing. (The Fed has repeatedly said this isn't the case, but who knows how markets interpret things sometimes.)