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from MacroScope:

Brazil set to release long-overdue jobless rate just as election race heats up

Workers at a General Motors vehicle factory listen during a meeting to discuss their reactions to an announcement of plans to put some 1,000 workers on paid leave, in Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil's unemployment rate has been a mystery for months: a strike in the country's statistics agency, ironically enough, disrupted its main job market survey. The numbers will finally come out in a few hours, less than two weeks before a tight presidential election, and will help voters understand just how bad the recently-confirmed recession has been.

IBGE’s August unemployment report is important not only because it can tilt Brazil's election balance in favor of current President Dilma Rousseff or her opponent Marina Silva, but also because it will determine the starting point of the labor market for a much-anticipated adjustment in Brazil’s economic policy. Some kind of shift is expected after the October election regardless of who wins, to keep debt under control and avoid losing the investment grade in coming years.

Looking at market estimates, one can expect anything, apparently. The range of forecasts in a Reuters poll was about three times as wide as in previous months, going from 4.5 percent, near a record low, to 5.8 percent, which would be the highest for August in three years. Either the recession has spared the job market so far, in good news for re-election candidate Rousseff, or it is now a reality for thousands of workers across Latin America's largest economy.

The median forecast is 4.9 percent, exactly the same rate reported in April. But some signs suggest a small increase is the most likely scenario, which would reinforce the outlook of a gradual but steady deterioration of one of the world's strongest labor markets just a few years ago.

from Counterparties:

Recovering, with a stutter

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The economy added 142,000 jobs in August. It was a pretty big disappointment, considering the consensus estimate was around 225,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.2% — bad news, since the decline comes from people dropping out of the labor force, rather than people getting jobs. Nick Bunker and Heather Boushey sum it up: “The U.S. economy is steadily if slowly expanding but not enough to spark sustained growth in jobs and wages and a commensurate decline in unemployment.”

Cardiff Garcia writes that “the report is hard to reconcile not only [with] other recent indicators [ISM data was great, auto sales are up, initial jobless claims were unchanged in August] but also with the obviously stronger momentum in prior jobs reports this year.” However, he continues, “if the acceleration in the recovery since the end of the first quarter has slowed, it wouldn’t be the first time that the US economy has head-faked observers.”

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Laboring for insights

The unemployment report occupies a unique position as a bit of a lagging indicator (especially when it comes to wage growth) and yet the most important economic figure that markets look at on a monthly basis. Various indicators point to the likelihood of another strong report come Friday that should accelerate recent trends in markets – more gains in the stock market (with a helping of the “this means the Fed is going to cut us off from the punch bowl blah-blah” stuff) and more strength in the dollar, regardless of whatever incipient gains the euro can muster after the European Central Bank meeting.

Underlying indicators to watch suggest that the U.S. economy has started to move more dramatically higher, whether it’s from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book or Goldman Sachs’ analyst indicator, a composite of analyst commentary that functions as sort of a “corporate Beige Book.”

from Counterparties:

Mr. Cantor Goes to Wall Street

No longer bringing in a government salary, Eric Cantor has decided to try his hand at investment banking. The former House majority leader will become a vice chairman and managing director at the investment banking boutique Moelis. His compensation will be around  $3.4 million through the end of next year (plus “the reasonable cost of a New York City apartment”).

What will Cantor do at an investment bank? Probably not a lot of Excel. Dennis Kelleher, the head of the public-interest group Better Markets (which opposes the banking lobby in Washington), says he’ll likely be lobbying for Wall Street among his former colleagues after his mandatory one-year ban expires next August. Kelleher tells Annie Lowrey, “Wall Street is after what it’s always buying in Washington: access, influence, and unfair advantage.” He also gets into specifics:

from Edward Hadas:

Time to retire unemployment

Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Give Janet Yellen credit. The chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve is keen to use monetary policy to help get more people into good jobs. Her priority – work is more important than finance – is reflected in the subject of this week’s get-together for the world’s central bankers: “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics.” One item should be on the agenda of the distinguished guests at Jackson Hole, Wyoming: how to replace the concept of unemployment.

from Data Dive:

Lots of available jobs, still no higher wages

Job openings in the US economy are at a 13-year high. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. It shows there were  4.67 million job openings in the month of June, up just a tad from the 4.6 million openings reported in May — it’s now the highest the job openings figure has been since February 2001.

St. Louis Fed

The separations rate is unchanged at 3.3 percent. Within that category, quits and discharge rates were also unchanged, at 1.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk charts the updated data, breaking out quits and layoffs in addition to hires and job openings:

from Edward Hadas:

Why the global recovery is so slow

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The International Monetary Fund recently engaged in what has become an annual ritual. For the fourth year in a row, it reduced its forecast for world GDP growth. The 0.7 percentage point average decline from the earlier estimate to the new 3.4 percent growth projection is not huge, but the persistent disappointments make many economists uneasy.

from Data Dive:

July jobs report: Stagnant wages

It’s Jobs Friday! This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data for non-farm payrolls for the month of July. The economy created 209,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%. The headline number came in a bit under consensus (a Reuters poll of economists expected growth of 233,000), but was overall not a terrible number. The data today really preserves the status quo.

The Reuters Graphics team has recently debuted some really great jobs-related interactive charts. Here are some highlights:

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – The economic state of things

The jobs report takes a bit of heat off of Thursday’s selloff, which was predicated in part on some nonsense out of Europe and more importantly some kind of growing consensus that the economy is getting hot enough that it might force the Federal Reserve to start raising rates a bit earlier than expected, given a sharp and unexpected rise in the employment cost index on Thursday. And while it’s fair to suggest the stock market has gotten a bit ahead of itself when the Fed is rapidly moving toward the end of its stimulus policies, it’s also possible that stocks have gotten ahead of themselves for a far more prosaic reason – the economy isn’t strong enough to support the kind of valuations we’re seeing in equities right now.

That’s not to say we’ve got bubbles all over the place in stocks – they’re pretty few and far between – but credit standards in various places have loosened, and if the Fed starts raising rates we’re going to see a pretty quick reversal of that before long. There are significant signs of concern emerging in places like the high yield market, which has dropped off sharply in recent days, particularly among the weakest credits, and the housing and auto markets, which are better leading indicators than the jobs data, also suggest that the slack credit standards may end up hitting a wall before long.

from The Great Debate:

$18 billion in job training = lots of trained unemployed people

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President Barack Obama told Americans in his July 19 weekly address that every worker deserves to know that “if you lose your job, your country will help you train for an even better one.” A nice sentiment -- and politically safe. It's just the wrong answer. Those “better jobs” don't exist, and training doesn’t create jobs. Despite all that, every year the U.S. government spends billions of dollars on job training, with little impact.

In 2007, then-candidate Obama visited Janesville, Wis., location of the oldest operating General Motors plant in America. Echoing his current promise to support unemployed Americans through job training, Obama proclaimed, “I believe that, if our government is there to support you, this plant will be here for another hundred years.” However, two days before Christmas and just about a month before Obama’s inauguration, the plant stopped production of SUVs, which made up the bulk of what was built there, throwing 5,000 people out of work. This devastated the town, because most residents either worked in the plant or in a business that depended on people working in the plant. Congress paid for a $2-million retraining program, using state community colleges the way the government once used trade schools, a century ago, to teach new immigrants the skills they needed to work at GM.

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