By George Hay
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Ever since the story first broke, more than five weeks ago, that David Einhorn was suing Seeking Alpha, the Israeli financial website has been very, very quiet on the topic. Sometimes they have simply failed to respond at all to requests for comment (including mine); other times, as with Andrew Ross Sorkin, a spokesman will formally decline to comment.
Argentina, as everybody knew it would, has gone to the Supreme Court to appeal the bad (and ignoble) ruling against the country by New York’s Second Circuit. The most likely final outcome, still, is that Argentina will default, for the reasons (but not with the timing) I gave last year. But, with this petition, Argentina now has three possible outs.
Felipe Larrain, Chile's finance minister is facing a new job come March when incoming center-left government of President-elect Michelle Bachelet takes over. An academic by profession, he intends to either make his way back into the cloistered lecture halls of a university, not necessarily in Chile, or work for some kind of international organization that is outside of the corporate or financial world.
JP Morgan is the first big bank to suffer a quarterly loss on account of multi-billion-dollar legal bills. It is also the most profitable bank in America (or was, up until this morning). Which means there are three possibilities here:
It's the ruling we were all waiting -- and waiting, and waiting -- for: six months after hearing oral arguments, the Second Circuit has finally handed down its 25-page decision, finding in favor of Elliott Associates and against Argentina. On its face, the ruling is, as Mark Weidemaier puts it, a big loss for Argentina, and "a total win for NML", a/k/a Elliott Associates. The ruling was unanimous -- the rumored dissent never appeared -- and pulls no punches: there's no indication that this was a hard case to decide, or that the lower court's extremely aggressive rulings were anything other than entirely reasonable.