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from MacroScope:

Britain’s export recovery looking a little more elusive

It looks like Britain might have to wait a while longer before its much-touted export recovery materialises.

Export orders growth flagged in July, according to two surveys of manufacturers over the last week.

Friday’s UK manufacturing PMI showed export order growth slipped to a four month low – with a warning that it could worsen.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at PMI compiler Markit, said:

“The concern is that the slowdown we are seeing is also a symptom of increased economic uncertainty both at home and in key export markets of Europe, in turn fuelled by worries about the Ukraine crisis. If the situation with Russia deteriorates further, we should expect goods exports to come under further pressure.” 

from Breakingviews:

China’s strikes not as bad as they seem

By Katrina Hamlin

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

China’s workers are asking for more. Luckily, many employers can justify the expense.

from MacroScope:

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.

This gives some support to the view -- which some say is more hope than a forecast -- that a snap-back is already taking place as the Federal Reserve and most other analysts expect.

from Expert Zone:

Slow pick-up in India’s GDP growth

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

GDP estimates by the Central Statistics Office for the 2013-14 fiscal year show an improvement over the previous year. But the extent of improvement is too small for comfort. Possibly, in the final revision, that small margin may disappear or even turn negative.

This year, India’s GDP is expected to be up 4.9 percent from 4.5 percent the previous year. This additional growth has come mainly from agriculture, due to a favourable monsoon. Agricultural growth was three times the previous year. Production of non-food grains (like vegetables and fruits), and animal products (like meat and eggs), did not increase adequately in spite of the inflated demand and will continue to be the main source of inflation.

from MacroScope:

Another false start for the U.S. economy?

Since the global financial crisis ripped the floor out from underneath developed world economies, the world's biggest one has had several false starts nailing the floorboards back in.

Stock markets have moved in almost one direction since their trough in March 2009 - up - but economic growth and job creation have bounced around.

from Breakingviews:

Chinese M&A rings in new year with Auld Lang Syne

By Jeffrey Goldfarb
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Old friends are kicking off Chinese New Year with a rousing rendition of Auld Lang Syne. Last year’s $2.5 billion sale of Cooper Tire & Rubber was undermined by its joint venture partner in Rongsheng. The two sides have now agreed a deal that helps them part ways. Given what transpired, Cooper may not be the only outsider singing “should old acquaintance be forgot” in the Year of the Horse.

from Global Investing:

Perfect storm brewing for the rouble

A perfect storm seems to be brewing for the Russian rouble. It has tumbled to four-year lows against a euro-dollar basket. Against the dollar, it has lost around 7 percent so far this year, faring better than many other emerging currencies. But signs are that next year will bring more turmoil.

While oil prices, the mainstay of Russia's economy, are holding up, Russian growth is not. It is running at 1.3 percent so far this year and capital outflows continue unabated -- $48 billion is estimated to have fled the country in the first nine months of 2013 compared with $55 billion in 2012. Russia's mighty current account surplus has shrunk to barely nothing and could fall into deficit by the middle of next year, reckons Alfa Bank economist Natalia Orlova. Finally, the rouble can no longer count on the central bank for wholehearted day-to-day support. FX market interventions cost the bank $3.5 billion last month  but it also shifted the exchange-rate corridor upwards six times, indicating it is keen to move to a fully flexible currency.

from Breakingviews:

Review: Dissecting America’s manufacturing retreat

By Kevin Allison

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Those who believe that making physical things is a superior vocation will find themselves nodding through much of Vaclav Smil’s “Made in the USA”. Smil, a prolific Canadian academic, challenges the widespread view that in mature economies a shrinking factory footprint is inevitable - or even desirable. He blames short-termism and bad policy choices, not just changing economic tides, for the retreat of U.S. manufacturing. The book’s call for smarter industrial policy is appealing, but Smil comes too close to advocating protectionism.

from MacroScope:

Too early to call revival in Latin America manufacturing

It may be too early to herald a revival of Latin America's manufacturing following a recent currency decline, according to a report by London-based research firm Capital Economics.

Increased competitiveness of local factories has been seen as a good side effect of the currency shock triggered by prospects of reduced economic stimulus in the United States. However, the data compiled by Capital Economics suggests there is still a long way to go before investors see any fireworks.

from Breakingviews:

“Made in Italy, Owned Elsewhere” will have to do

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Italian manufacturers have forever been proud to stamp a “Made in Italy” badge on their products. As much as a sign of quality, the boast stood as a mark of cultural and economic independence. But with Italy in the direst shape since World War II, “Made in Italy, Owned Elsewhere” will have to do for many of the nation’s industrialists.

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