Reuters blog archive
from Hugo Dixon:
Matteo Renzi’s Plan A is to push through domestic reforms, hope the European Central Bank manages to get inflation ticking up, and keep his fingers crossed the Italian economy stops shrinking. But if this fails, a mega wealth tax, debt restructuring and/or exit from the euro beckons.
There is no Plan B that wouldn’t tip both Italy, where I spent part of last week, and its neighbours into a severe crisis. That makes it all the more important that Plan A works.
Renzi has been doing a reasonable job since he took over as prime minister in February. He has boundless energy and is not afraid of fighting battles. The latest has been to reform the labour market – something that involved clashing with members of his own centre-left Democratic Party as well as its trade union backers. Last week, he had to call a vote of confidence to push the change through the Senate.
Important reforms of civil justice, the electoral system and the constitution have also started. All this is necessary to make Italy governable as well as a country in which business wants to invest.
By this time tomorrow, the anti-EU United Kingdom Independence Party is likely to be celebrating its first member of the Westminster parliament. Polls have just opened in the deprived seaside town of Clacton where the sitting Conservative lawmaker switched to UKIP and called a vote.
A second member of the ruling Conservative party has now defected to UKIP and will force another by-election before long leaving the party on tenterhooks over who might be next. Many fear they will lose their seats at the May 2015 general election as UKIP splits their vote.
The European Central Bank has one of its two offsite policy meetings of the year, in Naples. After a glut of measures last time it’s inconceivable that further action will be taken now but there is plenty to ponder.
A first tranche of cheap four-year loans has been offered to banks in the hope they will lend it on but the take-up was poor. The ECB is playing up the prospects of a second round in December after bank stress tests are out of the way. But having pledged to add the best part of 1 trillion euros to its balance sheet to rev up the euro zone economy, there is a lot of ground to cover.
France is unveiling its 2015 budget right now and it’s not making pretty reading, confirming that Paris will not get its budget deficit down to the EU limit of three percent of GDP until 2017, years after it should have done.
The health minister has said the welfare deficit is expected to run nearly one billion euros over budget this year and data on Tuesday showed France's national debt hit a record high in the second quarter, topping two trillion euros for the first time. It will near 100 percent of GDP next year.
Who says Europe is broken? The Ryder Cup stays here again and even Nigel Farage, leader of Britain’s anti-EU party, said he wanted Europe’s golfers to win.
The euro zone is not winning the economic competition however, despite the European Central Bank’s best efforts (it should be noted that only 3 of the 12 Ryder Cup team come from euro zone countries).
By Neil Unmack
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The minus sign in front of Italy’s latest GDP number was a reminder that Europe’s fourth-biggest economy remains stuck in a perma-recession. GDP has hardly increased in the last 15 years, and the 0.2 percent decline in the second quarter was the 11th fall in the last 12 periods. Matteo Renzi, the new prime minister, has offered only political changes. For the economy, much more is needed.
A day before the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi will travel to Luxembourg for talks with incoming European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. Oh to be a fly on the wall.
Some in the ECB are concerned that ultra-low sovereign borrowing costs and Draghi’s “whatever it takes” promise has relieved pressure on euro zone governments to carry on with structural economic reforms.
Juncker has signalled he is comfortable with a Franco-Italian drive to focus on growth and job creation rather than cutting debt.
European Commission president-elect Jean-Claude Juncker will hold talks with the various political groupings in the European Parliament as he seeks to develop policy positions. Most interesting would be indications about which way he is bending in the growth versus austerity debate.
Italy’s Matteo Renzi, resurgent after a strong performance in May’s EU elections, is pressing for a focus on measures to get the euro zone economy firing and has even managed to get Germany to talk the talk. But any leeway will be within the existing debt rules, not by writing new ones.
from Hugo Dixon:
By Hugo Dixon
Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.
Matteo Renzi is on a roll. The Italian prime minister is a brilliant politician. His youthful dynamism has bought him time with his people, the markets and the European Union to carry out the immense job of reforming Italy. But he has yet to show he can execute. He now needs to, because even his time will run out.
from Anatole Kaletsky:
Matteo Renzi, the prime minister of Italy who took the revolving presidency of the European Union this week, seems to be the sort of man that Napoleon was referring to when he reputedly said that the key qualification he sought in recruiting a general was good luck.
Renzi become prime minister without even needing to win an election because Silvio Berlusconi and all other rivals self-destructed. He took power just after Italy passed the lowest ebb of its economic fortunes. In May, he was rewarded for his good fortune by Italy’s voters, who anointed him with a strong democratic mandate in the same European elections that discredited almost all Europe’s other national leaders. Now he is taking the helm in Europe, as an economic recovery is starting and the European Central Bank is swinging decisively in support of growth.