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from The Great Debate:
For Russia, Syria is not in the Middle East
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with (clockwise, starting in top left.) U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, British Prime Minister David Cameron, next Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. REUTERS/FILES
A string of leaders and senior emissaries, seeking to prevent further escalation of the Syria crisis, has headed to Moscow recently to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. First, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, then British Prime Minister David Cameron, next Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and now, most recently, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon These leaders see Russia as the key to resolving the Syria quandary.
But to get Russia to cooperate on any stabilization plan, the United States and its allies will have to take into account Russia’s significant interests in the Mediterranean region.
Moscow’s refusal thus far to act on Syria seems puzzling. Russia has let other of its Middle East client regimes fall without much action on its part in the past. Why is Syria different to Moscow than those other Russian allies in the Middle East? Because, in Russia’s view, the outcome in Syria affects Moscow’s core strategic interests – including its global naval strategy and energy exports.
from Global Investing:
Turkey: ceasefire with PKK may bring economic gains
Turkey's ceasefire last month with the Kurdish militant group PKK could boost its trade partnerships multilaterally, as increasing prospects for stability in the region bring economic opportunities in the Middle East and Africa.
The halt in the decades-long armed campaign came on March 21 after the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Abdullah Ocalan, sent a letter with the announcement from the island prison cell where he has been held since 1999 when he was arrested for treason.
from Global Investing:
Emerging earnings: a lot of misses
It's not shaping up to be a good year for emerging equities. They are almost 3 percent in the red while their developed world counterparts have gained more than 7 percent and Wall Street is at record highs. When we explored this topic last month, what stood out was the deepening profit squeeze and steep falls in return-on-equity (ROE). The latest earnings season provides fresh proof of this trend and is handily summarized in a Morgan Stanley note which crunches the earnings numbers for the last 2012 quarter.
The analysts found that:
--With 84 percent of emerging market companies having already reported last quarter earnings, consensus estimates have been missed by around 6 percent. A third of companies that have already reported results have beaten estimates while almost half have missed.
from Breakingviews:
Target shortage feeds desperate Mideast telco M&A
By Una Galani
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
A scarcity of takeover targets is feeding a desperate scramble in Middle East telecoms M&A. Bahrain’s incumbent operator Batelco is eyeing a stake in the enterprise unit of India’s Reliance Communications. It comes just months after agreeing a deal worth $1 billion to buy assets spanning 12 markets, including Monaco and the Channel Islands, from Cable & Wireless. Batelco’s pick-and-mix takeovers are symptomatic of a market where too many big telcos are chasing too few assets.
from The Great Debate:
Can Obama inspire youth vote in Israel?
President Barack Obama's message to Israel last week was both powerful and urgent: You can't go on like this. The status quo is not a viable option.
That is a direct challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who acts like Israel can go on like this for the foreseeable future. Many Israelis are strongly tempted to believe, with Netanyahu, that the threat of terrorism and the occupation of the West Bank are manageable problems.
from Global Investing:
Making an Impact may be new good
If the pure pursuit of greed is no longer good in the post-crisis world, what defines the new "good"?
That's when you start to consider "Impact Investing", a type of investment that pursues measurable social and environmental impacts alongside a financial return. According to a report prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation, approximately 2,200 impact investments worth $4.4 billion were made in 2011.
from Global Investing:
Emerging Policy-More cuts and a change of governors in Hungary
All eyes on the Hungarian central bank this week. Not so much on tomorrow's policy meeting (a 25 bps rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion) but on Friday's nomination of a new governor by Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Expectations are for Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy to get the job, paving the way for an extended easing cycle. Swaps markets are currently pricing some 100 basis points of rate cuts over the coming six months in Hungary -- the question is, could this go further? With tomorrow's meeting to be the last by incumbent Andras Simor, clues over future policy are unlikely, but analysts canvassed by Reuters reckon interest rates could fall to 4.5 percent by the third quarter, compared to their prediction for a 5 percent trough in last month's poll.
A rate cut is also possible in Israel later today, taking the interest rate to 1.5 percent. Recent data showed growth at a weaker-than-expected 2.5 percent in the last quarter of 2012 while inflation was 1.5 percent in January, at the bottom of the central bank's target range. But most importantly, according to Goldman Sachs, the shekel has been strengthening, having risen 7 percent against the dollar since November and 6.8 percent on a trade-weighted basis in this period. That could prompt a rate cut, though analysts polled by Reuters still think on balance that the BOI will keep rates unchanged while retaining a dovish bias. A possible reason could be that house prices -- a sensitive issue in Israel -- are still on the rise despite tougher regulations on mortgage lending.
from John Lloyd:
Searching for serenity in Israel and Palestine
After Asher Susser, an Israeli scholar and one of his country’s foremost experts on Middle Eastern affairs, gave a talk in Oslo a few years ago, an audience member asked him a question: How soon, once a Palestinian state is created, will Israel and Palestine unite to form one country? “Twenty-four hours!” Susser said he replied. “Twenty-four hours after Norway and Sweden unite into one Scandinavian state!”
Susser, with whom I spoke recently in London, told the story to illustrate the fact that, as he said, “people value their ethnic and national identities much more than many wish to believe. Norway and Sweden are similar and friendly societies, but a merger would be unthinkable. Why assume it would be different with us?” (Norway, once united with Sweden under a Swedish king, achieved full independence in 1905.)
from Blogs Dashboard:
New data show fall in female genital mutilation – UN agencies
Changing attitudes have resulted in a decline in female genital mutilation in Africa and the Middle East, where the practice is most prevalent, according to United Nations data released on Wednesday.
In 29 countries in those two regions, an average of 36 percent of girls aged 15-19 have been subjected to FGM, the partial or total removal of the external female genitalia, compared with an estimated 53 percent of women aged 45-49.
from Global Investing:
Emerging Policy-Doves reign
Rate cuts are still coming thick and fast in emerging markets -- in some cases because of falling inflation and in others to deter the gush of speculative international capital.
Arguably the biggest event in emerging markets is tomorrow's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting which is expected to yield an interest rate cut for the first time in nine months.
