from MacroScope:

Brazil’s currency tests central bank’s patience

October 5, 2015

Brazil's Central Bank President Tombini gestures during a public hearing of the Budget Joint Commission in the Chamber of Deputies in Brasilia

The Brazilian real's dramatic drop has left the central bank with two options: jack up rates aggressively in one startling move, or tolerate higher inflation for longer.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Build your portfolio as markets consolidate

By Ambareesh Baliga
October 4, 2015

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty closed a percent higher to end the truncated week at 7,951 after threatening to fall below crucial support levels prior to the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy review. The bigger-than-expected 50 bps repo rate cut surprised markets, resulting in a robust pull-back.

from Ann Saphir:

To boldly go where no central banker has gone before

October 1, 2015

John Williams, chief of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, happens to have the same name as the guy who wrote the music for the Star Wars films. Judging from his speeches of late, the Fed’s own Williams is something of a sci-fan himself.  Thursday in Salt Lake City he borrowed from the iconic greeting of Star Trek’s Spock with a talk titled “The Economic Outlook: Live long and Prosper.” Earlier this month he riffed on Star Wars, with a speech subtitled “May the (economic) force be with you.” In July, he spoke about “The recovery’s final frontier” (see So it is quite logical that the enterprising captain of the Fed’s farthest-flung Western outpost would be keen on exploring strange new worlds. And here I don’t just mean voyaging to Los Angeles, where he was on Monday, or to Spokane, Wash., where he treks next week. Williams, like most Fed officials, believes that after nearly seven years of extraordinarily easy monetary policy, the U.S. economy is finally ready to leave near-zero interest rates behind. On Thursday, Williams repeated his view that the Fed should raise interest rates this year. Not all U.S. central bankers agree – one can almost hear Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota or Chicago Fed’s Evans echoing Princess Leia’s warning, “I have a bad feeling about this.” Certainly, if the Fed can successfully raise rates without quickly needing to cut them again, it will have pulled off what several other global central banks – the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, Sweden’s Riksbank --  have tried to do, but failed. Raising rates this year, as Williams hopes and expects to, would indeed be a bold move; and if the first hike is followed by others, he would indeed be taking the Fed where no other central bank has gone before.

from MacroScope:

Yellen faces her biggest test after years of Fed coddling markets

September 23, 2015

A trader works underneath a television screen showing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announcing that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on the floor of the New York Stock ExchangeThey say every top central banker faces a "test," and this may be it for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Now What?

September 18, 2015

The Fed has a lot of supporters among those who believe it wasn’t time to raise rates. Most primary dealers moved their expectations on a rate increase prior to the Fed meeting, the fed funds market was clearly signaling a very low chance of a rate increase, and plenty of commentators, domestic and international, expressed concern about the Fed moving rates at a time when it just wasn’t prudent to do so.

from MacroScope:

This time, BOJ could wait and watch before coming to yen’s rescue

September 15, 2015

U.S. one-hundred dollar bill and Japanese 10,000 yen notes are spread in TokyoThe Japanese yen has strengthened unexpectedly by about 4 percent over the last month and it could rise further if the U.S. Federal Reserve delays a rate hike and the dollar weakens.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Buy into the consolidation

By Ambareesh Baliga
September 13, 2015

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets displayed a spirited bounce-back after nearly four weeks of decline with the Nifty closing at 7,789, or 1.7 percent higher, on the back of supportive global cues and several reforms by the government.

from MacroScope:

Reuters polls dashboard of key data ahead of Sept FOMC meeting

September 4, 2015

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

As anticipation builds ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 16-17 meeting, the decision on whether rates will go up or not rests squarely on incoming economic data, according to Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

from Breakingviews:

Review: Ben Bernanke and a global monetary plague

By Edward Chancellor
August 28, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

from MacroScope:

Grass getting flattened by fighting FX elephants

August 27, 2015

Young male elephants lock tusks in battle on the plains at the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro in Amboseli national park, southern KenyaThe ongoing race to the bottom for currencies this year is hurtling towards a zero-sum result.