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from India Insight:

Strange weather: how a bad monsoon could be good for India

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By Mayank Bhardwaj and Jo Winterbottom

A bad monsoon in India is the one that fails to deliver enough rain … most of the time. This year, a lack of rainclouds could be the silver lining that the government needs. India has no place left to store more grain, and can ill afford a hefty payout to farmers for the truckloads of produce that another monsoon could produce.

The annual four-month monsoon rains begin around June 1. More than half of the country’s arable land relies on the monsoon to grow the crops that help feed the world's second-biggest country by population and put India's rice and sugar on the global market.

But India's last drought was five years ago. Food stocks have swelled so much since then that government warehouses, which house the grain sold at very low prices to the poor, are overflowing. Much is wasted, rotting or eaten by rats. The last thing that the government needs is another big crop yield.

India's harvest from the current crop year to June 2014 is forecast to be a record 263.2 million tonnes of grain, enough to give at least a tonne to every average-sized household, and nearly four times what is needed for government handouts to the poor.

from The Human Impact:

Heroes and politicians, Indian floods show the good, bad and ugly

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What many journalists and aid workers say is true – it is only in times of crisis, such as disasters and war, that you observe the best and worst of humanity.

In displacement camps where survivors have fled, for example, a cyclone which has flattened their village or a raging insurgency which has killed their loved ones, amid stories of pain and suffering, you will often hear incredible accounts of survival and hope.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead – Volatility seen as RBI policy review in focus

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Volatility is here to stay and trying to predict the markets on a daily basis is a futile exercise. It’s no better than tossing a coin.

Monsoon rains are early and heavier then normal, raising the hopes of green shoots in the next few months. Macro numbers were showing signs of bottoming out but the rupee slide has thrown calculations awry. A feeble request by the finance minister urging people to shun gold won’t do much good in a country enamoured by gold.

from Expert Zone:

Why the RBI should cut rates again

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had hesitatingly cut the repo rate by 0.25 percent, which made no impression on the stock market or commercial banks. That was because both expected the cut to be more substantial. But the RBI had not obliged.

Perhaps the monsoon, which arrived on the dot and is progressing satisfactorily, may make some difference to the RBI’s expectations of food inflation - which had been its principal reason for hesitancy. While it’s too early to predict monsoon behaviour for the rest of the season and the likely improvement in agricultural production, it does appear the improvement should be significant and inflation dampened perceptibly. Reduction in inflation, however, is not the only reason why the interest rate should have been cut.

from Expert Zone:

No silver lining in this monsoon cloud

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(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

India's monsoon rains have been delayed and were already 30 percent deficient by the end of June. There are doubts whether rains will pick up during the rest of the season. August and September are likely to be dry which will damage crops and reduce farm incomes.

from The Great Debate UK:

Why Pakistan monsoons support evidence of global warming

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-Lord Julian Hunt is visiting Professor at Delft University, and former Director-General of the UK Met Office. The opinions expressed are his own.-

The unusually large rainfall from this year’s monsoon has caused the most catastrophic flooding in Pakistan for 80 years, with the U.N. estimating that around one fifth of the country is underwater.  This is thus truly a crisis of the very first order.

from Photographers' Blog:

“Allah-u-Akbar!” (God is Great!)

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[CROSSPOST blog: 557 post: 366]

Original Post Text:
Some pictures still shock me. Some make me laugh; many provide an insight or window into a new idea but only a few haunt me with my mind's eye returning to them again and again.

On Wednesday 28th July an Airblue plane crashed  just outside Islamabad in the beauty spot of the Margalla Hills killing all 152 on board. The cause of the crash, as yet unconfirmed, is thought to have been the driving monsoon rain. I edited the pictures shot by Reuters photographers who reached the scene. Images ranging from smoke drifting through the hills, men scrambling in the charred rocky, woodlands, picking through twisted metal and rocks looking for signs of life; tied cloth bags, dripping with the blood  that contained the remains of the passengers, to a severed arm and hand, the fingers still perfectly formed, just lying on the ground. There were no survivors.

from Russell Boyce:

“Allah-u-Akbar! God is Great!”

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Some pictures still shock me. Some make me laugh; many provide an insight or window into a new idea but only a few haunt me with my mind's eye returning to them again and again.

On Wednesday 28th July an Airblue plane crashed  just outside Islamabad in the beauty spot of the Margalla Hills killing all 152 on board. The cause of the crash, as yet unconfirmed, is thought to have been the driving monsoon rain. I edited the pictures shot by Reuters photographers who reached the scene. Images ranging from smoke drifting through the hills, men scrambling in the charred rocky, woodlands, picking through twisted metal and rocks looking for signs of life; tied cloth bags, dripping with the blood  that contained the remains of the passengers, to a severed arm and hand, the fingers still perfectly formed, just lying on the ground. There were no survivors.

from Commentaries:

Dry spell should bring change to India

India is high on the list of candidates to help lead the world out of the current recession. The country weathered the global downturn remarkably well and looked poised to race ahead in coming years. Against this backdrop, the modest slowdown in growth caused by this year's weak rainfall is little more than an annoying speed bump.

But the dry spell should sound an alarm to India's politicians. Years of misguided agricultural policy have indisputably made the situation worse. Greater investment in irrigation and hardier crops could have halved the economic damage from a lackluster monsoon. More crucially, an overhaul of India's farming policy could help close the gap with China -- which has grown more than twice as fast since 1980.

from Money on the markets:

Sensex gains in choppy trade

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The BSE Sensex ended 0.69 percent higher on short-covering ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry. Gains were capped by worries about the health of the global economy.

Trade was volatile and the 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,207 to an intra-day high of 14,479 and closed 98 points higher at 14,422. The fifty-share Nifty ended 1.08 percent up at 4,293.

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