Archive
Reuters blog archive
from Global Investing:
Turkey’s (investment grade)bond market
We wrote here yesterday on how Turkish hard currency bonds have been given the nod to join some Barclays global indices as a result of the country's elevation to investment grade. Turkish dollar bonds will also move to the Investment grade sub-index of JPMorgan's flagship EMBI Global on June 28.
Local lira debt meanwhile will enter JPM's GBI-EM Global Diversified IG 15 percent Cap Index -- the top-tier of the bank's GBI-EM index. But the big prize, an invitation into Citi's mega World Government Bond Index, is still some way off. Requiring a still higher credit rating, WGBI membership is an honour that has been accorded to only four emerging markets so far.
Still, the Turkish Treasury is not complaining. Even before last week's upgrade to investment grade by Moody's, it was borrowing from the lira bond market at record cheap levels of around 5 percent for two-year cash. Ten-year yields are down half a percentage point this year. One reason of course is the gush of liquidity from Western central banks. But most funds (at least those who were allowed to do so) had not waited for the Moody's signal before buying Turkish bonds. So the bond market was already trading Turkey as investment grade.
RBS analysts reckon that by end-April, Turkey had raised 40 percent of this year's 152 billion-lira borrowing plan, while the average bid-cover ratio at bond auctions this year has been 3.2, compared to 2.5 in 2012. They write:
from MacroScope:
Possibility of Spanish downgrade looms over euro zone
Spanish government bonds have had a good run since the European Central Bank said it would protect the euro last year. But some analysts say the threat of a rating downgrade to junk remains an important risk.
Credit default swap prices are discounting such a move, according to Markit. Spain is only one notch above junk according to Moody's and Standard & Poor's ratings, and two notches above junk for Fitch. All three have it on negative outlook. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch says it sees a “high probability” of a sovereign rating downgrade in the second half of the year.
from Breakingviews:
Moody’s shaming brings UK gain in currency war
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The only question had been which rating agency would shoot first. Moody’s did the deed, removing the UK’s triple-A rating on Friday. It is a political humiliation for the UK government, but the downgrade also removes that lingering expectation of being gunned down. The irony is that the humbling may help the UK achieve recovery sooner - and without firing another monetary policy shot in the currency wars.
from MuniLand:
Moody’s provides criteria for U.S. Triple-A rating
The credit rating agency Moody’s is in a very delicate position. Its arch rival, Standard & Poor’s, was recently charged by the U.S. Department of Justice alleging that S&P committed mail and wire fraud by defrauding investors with faulty ratings. Moody’s was not charged, but there are a lot of questions about why it was left out of the investigation. At the same time, Moody’s is responsible for judging the creditworthiness of the U.S. government’s debt. There is little wonder that the rating agency is being very transparent in the benchmarks it is using.
Moody’s current rating for U.S. debt is Aaa (negative), which means that it could be downgraded. Unlike Paul Krugman and others who want the nation to issue more debt to attempt to spur economic activity, Moody’s wants the U.S. to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to improve its credit quality. In a detailed analysis, Steven A. Hess, Moody’s Senior Vice President, lays out what the agency is watching and the metrics it will use to judge the actions of Congress and the President.
from The Great Debate:
Taking on the rating agencies
The credit rating agency, Standard & Poors, announced Monday that it was the target of a civil lawsuit by the Justice Department for its actions in rating the complex securities that played a major role in the 2008-2009 financial collapse. The company also said that it had not been apprised of the details. It is interesting that the other two major rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch made no announcements.
There is much that all the agencies should worry about. What is publicly known -- and it is a great deal -- was laid out in the two-year Senate investigation led by Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.), which ended with the release of a final report in spring, 2011.
from Global Investing:
The BBB credit ratings traffic jam
Adversity is a great leveller. Just look at the way sovereign credit ratings in the developed and emerging world have been converging ever since the credit crisis erupted five years ago. JPMorgan has crunched a few numbers.
Few were surprised last week by S&P's decision to cut the outlook on Britain's AAA rating to negative. That gold-plated rating is becoming increasingly rare -- according to JP Morgan, just 15 percent of global GDP now rates AAA with a stable outlook -- a whopping comedown from 50 percent in 2007. Only 13 developed economies are now rated AAA, compared to 21 before the crisis. And only one, Australia, now has a higher rating (AAA) than in 2007 -- 16 of its peers have suffered a total of 129 downgrades in this period. With 20 rich countries on negative outlook, more downgrades are likely.
from Money on the markets:
Goldman, Moody’s bring some cheer; can the govt build on it?
A battered government has some good news to cheer this week. First, rating agency Moody's kept the country's rating outlook at stable, providing a breather after two other global firms downgraded it to negative.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday upgraded Indian equities to 'overweight' from 'market-weight'. The Wall Street investment bank has cited a recovery in growth and inflation moderation going ahead as reasons for its upgrade. It has set an end-2013 end target for the Nifty at 6,600 points, a 14 percent upside from current levels.
from Global Investing:
Moody’s takes some pressure off Turkey
Moody's disappointed a lot of folks this week when it failed to raise Turkey's credit rating to investment grade.
After Fitch upped Turkey on Nov 5 into the coveted top tier, hopes were high that Moody's would do the same and soon. Being rated investment grade by at least two agencies has a lot of pluses . But all the subsequent investment inflows have side effects and one of them is currency appreciation. Check out these graphs. (click to enlarge)
from Breakingviews:
Moody’s downgrade is good news for France
Pierre Briançon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
François Hollande has received a little help from an unlikely friend. Moody’s, the ratings agency, has stripped France of its prized AAA status, following rival S&P’s similar move in January. Markets yawned at the long-expected news, with yields on French 10-year bonds up a meagre four basis points. The decision comes with threats of further downgrades, so it puts pressure on France to plough ahead with its reform plans. But the French president should welcome the announcement, which will help him convince his compatriots that more changes are needed, and that time is short.
from MacroScope:
French downgrade to give way to Greek debt deal
Big event overnight was the downgrading of France to Aa1 by Moody’s, bringing it in line with Standard & Poor’s which cut back in January. There are some funds (even in this age of AAA scarcity) which will only invest in top notch debt and take their cue to exit once two agencies have dropped that rating, but the immediate impact is unlikely to be dramatic. The euro has slipped on the news, French government bond futures have dropped about a quarter of a point and safe haven German Bund futures have edged up. "Although it's not great, the market doesn't seem too worried," one trader said.
However, it does throw a spotlight on the gap between France’s economic health (lack of it) and the record low costs it can borrow at. We’ve written plenty of good stuff on this already and French finance minister Moscovici gave his response to us last night. Interestingly, it wasn’t an attack on the ratings agencies, which we’ve seen before from Europe in these circumstances. Instead, he said it was an alarm bell telling the government to pursue structural reforms and reaffirmed his commitment to meet budget deficit targets. He noted that France continued to enjoy record low yields after S&P cut early in the year. The only thing he really took issue with was Moody's view of the large risks to France's banks. It warned it could cut France's rating further.
