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from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Ebola will not be the last global epidemic, time to hit the reset button on how we treat it – author

(Updates with current news on New York City doctor testing positive for Ebola and World Health Organization's expectations for a vaccine.)

Ebola will not be the last global epidemic. It is, however, the first to spread as we hop on planes, rely on oil and chocolate from far flung locales and blindly lean on modern medicine’s ability to control and kill the very pathogens that live among us.

Dr. Bill Miller

Dr. Bill Miller

Now is the time to hit the reset button on our approach to viral outbreaks. While it’s taken health agencies, drug makers and the public-at-large time to wake up to the current spread of the deadly virus in Africa, there's no time like the present to prepare for the next outbreak, Dr. Bill Miller, a physician and author of “The Microcosm Within: Evolution and Extinction in the Hologenome” said in an interview on Thursday.

A hologenome is essentially an organism’s sum of its parts, a combination of its cells and all the microbes (bacteria and viruses) that live within it. It’s the bacteria in your gut that helps your body break down food and the cold virus that makes you sick.

from Global Investing:

Strong dollar, weak oil and emerging markets growth

Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth.  Oil's 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar's strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.

Michael Howell, managing director of the CrossBorder Capital consultancy estimates the negative effect of the stronger dollar on global liquidity (in simple terms, the amount of capital available for investment and spending) outweighs the positives from falling oil prices by a ratio of 10 to 1. Not only does it raise funding costs for non-U.S. banks and companies, it also usually forces other central banks to keep monetary policy tight, especially in countries with high inflation or external debt levels. Howell says:

from Breakingviews:

Cheap oil is no tonic for sluggish Asian economies

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Cheaper oil won’t be much of a tonic for Asian economies. While painful for exporters, sliding prices should benefit consumers of crude. For most in the region, though, less expensive oil is mainly a sign that growth is stalling.

from Breakingviews:

Rampant market fear clarifies global divide

By Richard Beales

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Suddenly, fear has overwhelmed greed. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds slumped below 1.9 percent at one stage on Wednesday, and the 2 percent slide in the S&P 500 Index erased what remained of this year’s gains, although the index ended the trading day down just under 1 percent. It all augurs poorly for the expected end next month of the Federal Reserve bond-buying program. Yet the domestic economy has been steadily improving. Slowing growth elsewhere presents the bigger worry.

from Breakingviews:

Markets finally side with economy on bad news

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Market historians could call the last five years the QE period. Quantitative easing, a polite term for money creation by central banks, has pushed free and ultra-cheap money into almost all financial markets, supporting or pushing up prices. The era is coming to a close. As investors overcome their monetary dependence, they have to look at the real economy. It’s not encouraging.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Five and Five

Just when the market thought it was out, it got pulled back in. The Federal Reserve will release its minutes later in the day that details what it was thinking during its most recent September policy meeting, but of late, the markets have been of a mind that the expectations for higher rates ought to be tempered a bit.

On Tuesday, New York Fed head William Dudley suggested in remarks that the chances of economic growth in the long-run coming in faster than anticipated is a fantasy that people should get shut of - and so that helped take down the market and not ironically contributed to a further decline in the five-year/five-year forward spread that serves as one of the market's best barometers of inflation expectations.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Ebola’s “worst case” economic impact may total more than $40 billion – World Bank’s Evans

As world leaders gather this week for the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank  autumn meetings, Ebola will be top on the list of priorities. Apart from the human toll, the economic impact will be felt for at least a couple of years, said David Evans, senior economist of the World Bank’s Africa Division.

David Evans, senior economist, World Bank's Africa region

David Evans, senior economist, World Bank's Africa region

"What we see is that in the short run, by the end of this year, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are likely to be about $359 million poorer than they would have been in the absence of the Ebola outbreak,” Evans told the Global Markets Forum ahead of the meetings. “With our estimates of the impact of West Africa alone, even in a less tragic case, the lost GDP is likely to run into the billions. And in a worse case, we have even higher numbers (more than $40 billion).”

from Breakingviews:

Asset price disinflation may be next big thing

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The great divergence may be about to come to an end. For investors in almost everything but the safest bonds, that is bad news.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

GMF @HedgeWorld West, World Bank/IMF and Financial & Risk Summit Toronto 2014

(Updates with guest photos and new links).

Join our special coverage Oct. 6-10 in the Global Markets Forum as we hit the road, from the West Coast to Washington to the Great White North.

GMF will be live next week from the HedgeWorld West conference in Half Moon Bay, California, where we’ll be blogging insight from speakers including Peter Thiel, former San Francisco 49ers great Steve Young and other panelists' viewpoints on the most important investment themes, allocation strategies, reputation risk management ideas and more.

from Breakingviews:

Double-digit oil forces majors into more self-help

By Fiona Maharg-Bravo

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

The big listed oil companies had enough trouble with profitability when the price of crude was above $100 a barrel. A sustained fall into double-digit territory will force majors to step up their self-help programmes.

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