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from MacroScope:

ECB deflation risk denial has echoes of 2009

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Euro zone policymakers like to talk. They often contradict each other at separate speaking engagements on the same day. But they have struck a chorus in recent weeks, asserting that deflation is not a threat.

Members of the ECB Governing Council have been particularly vocal, insisting they will not have to alter policy to counter falling prices.

Jan 9: Mario Draghi says the euro zone may "experience a prolonged period of low inflation" -- steering clear of even mentioning the word deflation.

Jan 21: ECB's Ewald Nowotny says "we neither see inflation nor do we see deflation in the euro zone".

from India Insight:

Analysts remain positive on India’s IT stocks after 2013 rally

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India's information technology services businesses will continue to benefit from improving client demand from developed countries in 2014, pushing stocks higher after a stellar performance last year, analysts told India Insight.

India’s No. 1 IT services exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and its rival Infosys beat analysts’ expectations in their financial results that were released earlier this month. They also raised their sales growth forecasts on signs of improving economies in the United States and Europe.

from India Insight:

Outlook weak for India economic growth: analysts

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India’s economy grew at 4.4 percent in the June quarter, its slowest rate since the first three months of 2009 and weaker than analysts’ consensus of 4.7 percent in a Reuters poll.

With the rupee still trading near record lows and a ballooning current account deficit alarming investors and policymakers, several investment banks are worried about the road ahead.

from India Insight:

Fitch revises India outlook; recent views of other rating agencies

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Fitch Ratings revised India's sovereign rating outlook to "stable" from "negative" on the back of measures taken by the government to contain the budget deficit, it said in a statement on Wednesday. The rating agency had cut India’s outlook to negative in June 2012 and currently has a 'BBB-' rating for the country.

“Fitch expects the government to broadly meet its FY14 budget deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP (including privatisation receipts) and to gradually reduce the high level of public debt over the medium-term,” the rating agency said.

from MacroScope:

Goal line on jobs still a long way off: former Fed economist Stockton

The Great Recession set the U.S. labor market so far back that there is still a long way to go before policymakers can claim victory and point to a true return to healthy conditions, a top former Fed economist said. The U.S. economy remains around 3 million jobs short of its pre-recession levels, and that's without accounting for population growth.

“The goal line is still a long ways off,” David Stockton, former head of economic research at theU.S.central bank’s powerful Washington-based board, told an event sponsored by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He sees the American economy improving this year, but believes the recovery will continue to have its ups and downs.

from MacroScope:

Hey, at least it beats the Mayan outlook

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A panel of economic luminaries took the stage in Chicago this afternoon to join in a tradition repeated this time of the year in cities across the country, opining on the outlook for the coming year.

Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, began with a joke involving 973 sheep and a dog, the butt of which was the intellectual capacity of economic forecasters. He went on to predict slow world growth ahead, highlighting the geopolitical risks from conflict in the Middle East and Asia, and the limits of fiscal and monetary policy to turn things around.

from MacroScope:

Dr. Doom goes to Beverly Hills

When it comes to predicting a dark future, Nouriel Roubini – the NYU economist who earned the moniker Dr. Doom after he correctly predicted the financial crisis – is not about to let anyone get in his way.

Even if it’s his host. And even, or maybe especially, when there are 500 witnesses.

from MacroScope:

The Great Stagnation

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s verdict on the U.S. economy is sobering. Boiled down, this was the message delivered at his news conference today:

    Brace for roughly three more years of sluggish growth – or longer Some of the unemployed will not find work in the foreseeable future America’s economic power has downshifted Global financial markets could upend recovery yet again

It is a bleak outlook. Bernanke has left little doubt that he sees the United States in the midst of very long and painful period of sub-par growth, dousing some of the optimism stirred by recent reports that showed unemployment falling, the housing market hitting bottom and businesses starting to spend again.

from Funds Hub:

Watch BlackRock’s Mark Lyttleton give his market view

Mark Lyttleton, manager of the 1.5 billion pound BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha fund, gives his view on the recent rebound in the equity market and his outlook for the rest of the year and beyond.

from Funds Hub:

Listen to LV’s Tom Caddick

Tom Caddick, fund of funds manager at LV= Asset Management, talks about his funds' allocation to equities and his positive outlook on corporate bonds.

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