Archive
Reuters blog archive
from Global Investing:
Emerging Policy-Hawkish Poland to join the doves
All eyes on Poland's central bank this week to see if it will finally join the monetary easing trend underway in emerging markets. Chances are it will, with analysts polled by Reuters unanimous in predicting a 25 basis point rate cut when the central bank meets on Wednesday. Data has been weak of late and signs are Poland will struggle even to achieve 2 percent GDP growth in 2013.
How far Polish rates will fall during this cycle is another matter altogether. Markets are betting on 100 basis points over the next 6 months but central bank board members will probably be cautious. Inflation is one reason along with the the danger of excessive zloty weakness that could hit holders of foreign currency mortgages. One source close the bank tells Reuters that 75 or even 50 bps would be appropriate, while another said:
"The council is very cautious and current market expectations for rate cuts are premature and excessive."
That would appear logical for a central bank whose mindset is essentially hawkish and which raised interest rates just six months ago to combat inflation. Goldman Sachs said in a note that it reckons any cut will be reluctantly made:
from Photographers Blog:
Love within boundaries
By Mariana Bazo
The Lurigancho prison in Lima is one of the most overcrowded, violent and unruly jails in Latin America. More than 8,500 prisoners live within its walled perimeter with so much freedom that they have created their own city which reproduces the urban society on the outside, including its most unjust and grotesque aspects. The passageways and open areas are filled with vendors, food stands, soccer fields, industrial zones, rehabilitation centers, barber shops and even pet animals.
It is a tyranny with its own laws imposed by the president and bosses of each sector. Its unique social and economic strata, with classes of poor and rich, are all governed by the power of money and force.
from Global Investing:
Fed re-ignites currency war (or currency skirmish)
The currency war is back.
Since last week when the Fed started its third round of money-printing (QE3), policymakers in emerging markets have been busily talking down their own currencies or acting to curb their rise. These efforts may gather pace now that Japan has also increased its asset-buying programme, with expectations that the extra liquidity unleashed by developed central banks will eventually find its way into the developing world.
The alarm over rising currencies was reflected in an unusual verbal intervention this week by the Czech central bank, with governor Miroslav Singer hinting at more policy loosening ahead, possibly with the help of unconventional policy tools. Prague is not generally known for currency interventions -- analysts at Societe Generale point out its last direct interventions were conducted as far back as 2001-2002. Even verbal intervention is quite rate -- it last resorted to this on a concerted basis in 2009, SoGen notes. Singer's words had a strong impact -- the Czech crown fell almost 1 percent against the euro.
from Global Investing:
Russia: a hawk among central bank doves?
This week has the potential to bring an interesting twist to emerging markets monetary policy. Peru, South Korea and Indonesia are likely to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday but there is a chance of a rate rise in Russia. A rise would stand out at a time when central banks across the world are easing monetary policy as fast as possible.
First the others. Rate rises in Indonesia and Peru can be ruled out. Peru grew at a solid 5.4 percent pace in the previous quarter and inflation is within target. Indonesian data too shows buoyant growth, with the economy expanding 6.4 percent from a year earlier. And the central bank is likely to be mindful of the rupiah's weakness this year -- it has been one of the worst performing emerging currencies of 2012.
from Photographers Blog:
Trapped with a way out
By Mariana Bazo
It would be impossible to think of rescuing miners and not to associate such thoughts to the rescue of the Chilean miners in San Jose, Copiapo, 2010. That really was a glorious rescue after a lengthy sixty-nine day underground wait.
This time in Peru, nine miners were trapped in an illegal copper and gold mine in the desert of Ica, south of Lima.
from Photographers Blog:
The hunt for treasure
By Mariana Bazo
On my numerous trips around the outskirts of Lima I’ve long been struck by the sight of elderly women combing garbage dumps and lugging huge bags filled with recyclable items. I’ve photographed several of them and while talking to them I always get the same story – they pick up bottles, paper and cans they can sell later, and that little money allows them to survive. Some of the women are abandoned and have no relatives, but others prefer to live on their own means rather than depending on handouts. It’s common to hear them say that this is the only job they can get at their age. I often notice a certain glimpse of happiness when they talk about their hard-earned independence.
Peru’s national statistics bureau has published figures that older adults who don’t have retirement plans are forced to develop strategies for survival, to avoid being economically dependent and socially vulnerable, and these garbage pickers fit exactly that description. Many poor elderly women are excluded from social services and have never been in the formal workplace. Many are Andean migrants without the same education opportunities as men, to the extent where many are illiterate.
from Photographers Blog:
Guardians of biodiversity
By Diego Cortijo
The jungle is a place too inhospitable to allow large human settlements, or that's what we have always believed until now. New archaeological discoveries tell of highly developed cultures that have lived in the heart of the jungle. The myths of ancient cultures and places lost deep in the jungle may no longer be myths in light of these new discoveries.
With this proposal I began my second expedition to the Amazon rainforest as a member of the Spanish Geographic Society, to try to learn about and document unknown places in the jungle. Members of native communities I visited in the past had spoken to me about ancient settlements, and now I wanted to locate them.
from Global Investing:
Interest rates in emerging markets – - harder to cut
Emerging market central banks and economic data are sending a message -- interest rates will stay on hold for now. There are exceptions of course.
Indonesia cut rates on Thursday but the move was unexpected and possibly the last for some time. Brazil has also signalled that rate cuts will continue. But South Korea and Poland held rates steady this week and made hawkish noises. Peru and Chile will probably do the same.
from Photographers Blog:
From the Quake to the Cup
By Mariana Bazo
Nearly 300 Haitians are stuck in Inapari, a tiny Peruvian village on the border with Brazil. They are victims of the 2010 earthquake in their country and traveled weeks chasing their dream of simply getting a job. They believe that in Brazil the upcoming World Cup is creating great opportunities.
Some 3,000 kilometers after leaving home, they reached the Brazilian border only to find it shut to them, closed to stop the wave of their compatriots that began to arrive after the disaster.
from Photographers Blog:
Lori Berenson – The 15-year assignment
By Mariana Bazo
On Monday, after several attempts, Lori Berenson finally managed to leave Peru for her native New York. And although it was a full year since she had been freed on parole, a total of fifteen years had gone by since the first photo I took of her. Peru has changed enormously since then. I still remember clearly the face-to-face encounter I had with her at the interview with Reuters the day after she was paroled.
I left my car badly parked and ran to the appointment in an old building in downtown Lima. I got lost, entered a slow elevator, and in too much of a hurry to realize exactly where I was headed and with whom I was to meet, the door opened and I was suddenly face to face with her. It was 15 years since I first met her, but it was the first time that we shook hands. The attorney asked, “Do you know each other?” I answered, “Well yes,” and I blurted out my name.
