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Reuters blog archive

from Breakingviews:

Where should AstraZeneca shares be trading?

By Chris Hughes
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Investors are putting a lot of faith in Pfizer succeeding in its $100 billion-plus quest to acquire UK pharmaceuticals rival AstraZeneca. The right price for the target’s share price can be seen as the weighted average of two possible outcomes – a sale to Pfizer or a standalone future. A new Breakingviews calculator shows why the market seems to think a transaction will probably happen.

AstraZeneca’s shares, trading at 46.84 pounds on May 15, are being torn two ways. One risk is that Pfizer fails in its pursuit of the group, in which case the shares could fall back to near their 37.82 pounds value prior to news of Pfizer’s interest. Alternatively, Pfizer could prevail, though probably with a higher offer than the U.S. group’s last non-binding approach on May 2, which was worth 50 pounds a share at the time. Pfizer will certainly have to offer more if it wants to secure a recommendation from AstraZeneca’s board.

These dynamics are complicated by time. The giant merger would require approval in multiple jurisdictions. The further away the payday for AstraZeneca shareholders, the lower the present-day value of any offer made. If Pfizer chooses to go hostile, a deal would probably take longer to complete as AstraZeneca’s management would not cooperate to help get the transaction done.

from Breakingviews:

Pfizer unlikely to avoid China anti-trust therapy

By Ethan Bilby

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The chance to vet Pfizer’s $106 billion offer for rival drug-maker AstraZeneca looks too good to pass up for China’s competition watchdog. Pfizer should brace for some antitrust therapy, though getting Astra’s board on-side first may help.

from Breakingviews:

Pfizer yet to land knockout blow on Astra

By Neil Unmack 

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Pfizer’s courtship of AstraZeneca looks like a hate-hate relationship. In January, UK pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca viewed its U.S. larger rival’s proposal of 46.61 pounds a share as too low on cash, too risky, and too cheap to even talk about. Pfizer’s latest proposal, an attempt to get Astra to begin friendly talks, hasn’t moved the needle much.

from Breakingviews:

Astra has small tactical advantage over Pfizer

By Christopher Hughes and Neil Unmack
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Time often benefits bidders rather than targets – that’s why U.S.-based food group Kraft left Cadbury flailing for months after making a takeover approach for its UK competitor. But the dynamics of Pfizer’s interest in rival pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca are unusual. Pfizer has good reason to seek a quick, agreed deal.

from Breakingviews:

Pfizer tax arbitrage will hasten more deals

By Robert Cyran

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Pfizer’s $99 billion tax arbitrage bid will encourage copycats. The biggest charm of the U.S. drug giant’s offer for AstraZeneca of the UK lies in switching to a lower-tax domicile. The latest and largest such deal to hit the headlines raises the odds Congress will tighten rules – but not yet.

from Breakingviews:

Pfizer needs to do more to win AstraZeneca

By Neil Unmack

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Pfizer will need to pile on more pressure if it wants to buy AstraZeneca. The U.S. pharma group has confirmed that it made a $99 billion cash-and-stock approach for its UK peer in January, and is now renewing its suit. Astra Chief Executive Pascal Soriot may ultimately struggle to resist a takeover, but he ought to be able to extract a better proposal.

from Breakingviews:

Valeant can boost its $47 bln bid for Allergan

By Robert Cyran
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals has plenty of room to boost its bid for Allergan. The acquisition machine, working with hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, thinks it can cut at least $2.7 billion of costs from the Botox maker. At Valeant’s single-digit tax rate, that’s worth nearly $25 billion. And the potential benefits go on from there. The $47 billion deal, based on Monday’s closing price for Valeant stock, would still add up with a much bigger premium.

from Breakingviews:

Dawn raid makes comeback via activist drone strike

By Robert Cyran and Richard Beales
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Remember the dawn raid, when a would-be acquirer built up a stake before the target realized it was under attack? Activist investor Bill Ackman has come up with a kind of drone strike version. His Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund and Valeant Pharmaceuticals have teamed up to grab a potential 9.7 percent stake in Allergan, with a hostile takeover by Valeant ready for deployment.

from Breakingviews:

From Ally to Zoe’s, IPOs hint at back to basics

By Robert Cyran

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

From Ally Financial to Zoe’s Kitchen, initial public offerings may be getting back to basics. Investors had an appetite for almost any new issue until last week. Six of 10 offerings couldn’t fetch the desired price and six were yanked as fear again mingled with greed. A fresh crop of eager sellers, including Moelis and Weibo, may encounter a more rational market than expected.

from Breakingviews:

Ranbaxy sale shows risk in Japanese M&A adventures

By Peter Thal Larsen

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Daiichi Sankyo has just reminded corporate Japan of the dangers of overseas adventures. The drugmaker is handing control of its ailing Indian affiliate Ranbaxy to local rival Sun Pharmaceutical in a $3.2 billion deal. The investment has lost almost 40 percent of its value in six years.

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