Want to know which emerging markets will thrive and which will fail? Listen to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's chief global strategist as he ticks through his 10 metrics for determining the fate of economies. Hint: China is in a bad place. His new book, "The Rise and Fall of Nations" has some lessons for the developing world to consider, too.
from Hugo Dixon:
One of the gripes Britons have about the European Union is that they think the big decisions are stitched up between the Germans and French. Anti-Europeans are fanning this feeling in the runup to the referendum on whether the United Kingdom should stay in the EU, saying that Britain has little influence on what happens in Brussels.
from Expert Zone:
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
There is no doubt that India’s growth has not picked up in line with expectations. In fact, most activity indicators -- whether it’s manufacturing growth, corporate earnings, power generation, passenger vehicle sales, exports growth or non-food credit offtake of commercial banks -- have shown increasing weakness in recent months.
from Hugo Dixon:
Are the Tories and Labour the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of UK politics? In most things, there’s not much to choose between the UK parties’ economic election pledges. Both want to cut the deficit gradually. Both want to splash out on the National Health Service. And both have a smattering of silly micro-policies. The big differences are that Labour would tax the rich more and the Tories might take Britain out of the European Union.
The response of the dismal scientists to their collective failure to anticipate the global financial crisis has been dispiriting. Economists have refused to set aside their abstruse models, even though these models failed to predict the economic catastrophe. During the boom years, almost all economists applauded Alan Greenspan’s easy money policy. After the bust, the same people continue to deny – in the face of common sense - that the low interest rates of Greenspan’s Federal Reserve were largely responsible for the debt bubble. In short, economics has failed to address its intellectual weaknesses.