By Kate Duguid
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
The best journalists get front-row seats to the most tumultuous years of a nation. Rajdeep Sardesai, one of India's best-known journalists, was in such a position for this year's general election in India, in which 815 million people voted. Their decisions brought the Bharatiya Janata Party and its leader Narendra Modi into power, ending 67 years of near-uninterrupted control of Indian politics by the Congress Party and the Nehru-Gandhi clan.
Spain has been held up to other euro zone countries as an example of the benefits of structural reform. That’s fair enough, up to a point. The conservative government’s bank rescues and labour reform have stabilised the financial system and improved competitiveness. The economy is expected to grow 1.2 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year by the European Commission.
I may be the one person who listens to the election news and thinks about Benjamin Harrison. You don’t remember him? President of the United States from 1888-1892? The scion of a political dynasty that yielded enough failed presidencies to make the Harrisons the Bushes of the 19th century? So why do I think of Harrison? Because this is an election year that centers on money.
Sweeping economic reform initiated by China President Xi Jinping in November 2013 marked a turning point for the world's second biggest economy. If implemented fully, China's potential GDP growth can be sustained at 6 percent through 2020. One risk: Falling short of that growth rate could result in growth at half that projection, or worse, leading to a new economic crisis, according to a new study.
Matteo Renzi’s Plan A is to push through domestic reforms, hope the European Central Bank manages to get inflation ticking up, and keep his fingers crossed the Italian economy stops shrinking. But if this fails, a mega wealth tax, debt restructuring and/or exit from the euro beckons.