Reuters blog archive
from The Great Debate:
The recent focus on what divides world leaders, from Syria to the euro zone, has obscured the significant agreements reached at the Group of 20 meeting in St. Petersburg earlier this month. One of the most important was support for free trade and opposition to protectionism.
We can now build on this momentum, as well as other trade liberalization efforts, to achieve meaningful progress at the World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in Bali in December.
Though critics describe the G20 as ineffective, it has been key in fostering economic cooperation among the world's largest countries and helping to stave off the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression. With the economic stresses of the past five years potentially triggering protectionism, it's noteworthy that G20 members have steadfastly supported free trade.
In St. Petersburg, for example, G20 members agreed to freeze the introduction of trade protectionist measures until 2016. This was a major achievement that lays the groundwork for much-needed progress on the trade agenda.
from The Great Debate:
The body of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV’s wily finance minister, is encased in a marble tomb in the Church of Saint Eustache in central Paris. But if you believe Arnaud Montebourg, the enfant terrible of French politics, his spirit is still very much alive, 330 years after his death, and about to spark a new, digital-age industrial revolution in France.
Montebourg, 50, an ardent opponent of globalization, has for the past 15 months served as the nation’s “Minister of Productive Renewal,” in charge of industry, a post that -- in theory -- gives him leeway to implement some of his more radical ideas. He spells them out in a book published on Sept.18, “The Battle for Made in France.” Invoking Colbert’s grandiose interventionist approach, it is a strident call for industry to be protected and nurtured. Among other things, Montebourg insists that the outsourcing trend of the past decade needs to be reversed; he dreams of the day when televisions, textiles and toys will once again be made in France, as the nation recaptures its manufacturing glory.
By Peter Thal Larsen
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
Sorry, wine lovers: tariff threats won’t end China’s thirst for Bordeaux. Talk of restricting imports from Europe has raised hopes elsewhere that fine wines might become more affordable. But French chateaux have more to fear from China’s anti-corruption drive than from trade war.
from Global Investing:
Expectations are running high ahead of next week's LTRO 2.0 (expected take-up is somewhat smaller than the first time and the previous estimate though, with Reuters poll predicting banks to grab c492 bln euros).
The ECB's three-year loan operation, along with the BOJ's unexpected easing, BoE's QE and commitment from the Fed to keep rates on hold until at least end-2014 may constitute competitive monetary easing, Goldman Sachs argues.
The epic global shifts of 2011 transformed the political, economic, and social landscape from Shanghai to Sao Paolo, Washington to Cairo. No leader (not even Vladimir Putin) is safe from the vagaries of social unrest; no economy (not even China’s) is unaffected by contagion from an over-leveraged, under-managed euro zone. No country (not even the United States) is immune from the threat of asymmetric attacks—anything from a terrorist bomb to cyber-warfare.
Volatility will be the rule, not the exception in 2012. What I call the emerging Archipelago World of fragmenting power, capital, and ideas is inherently unstable— as vulnerable to old conflicts and new threats as it is open to the dynamic entrepreneurship of rising powers and corporations remaking the map of the world.
from The Great Debate:
By Gordon Brown
The views expressed are his own.
Next week's 2011 G20 meeting has the power to write a new chapter in the response to the economic downturn. But every day, as nations announce currency controls, capital controls, new tariffs and other protectionist measures, the G2O’s room for maneuver is being significantly narrowed. Already the cumulative impact of a wave of mercantilist measures is threatening to turn decades of globalization into reverse, returning us to the economic history of the 1930s, and condemning at least the western parts of the world to a decade of low growth and high unemployment.
Three years ago when the financial crisis first hit, the G2O communiqués were explicit in warning of the dangers of a new protectionism. Led by the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Pascal Lamy, we embarked on a forlorn attempt to use the crisis to deliver a world trade deal -- and were frustrated by an irresoluble dispute on agricultural imports between two countries, India and the USA. But now, in the absence of any co-ordinated global action, member countries have been retreating into their national silos -- and the trickle of protectionist announcements threatens to become a flood. Switzerland led costly action to protect its overvalued currency and has been followed by currency interventions in Japan (with perhaps more to come), India, Indonesia, and South Korea. Brazil, which had itself warned of currency wars, then imposed direct tariffs on manufactured imports -- a hefty car tax designed to protect its own native auto industry against emerging market imports. Other countries are now considering mimicking them. Capital controls are also now in vogue, and of course the U.S. Senate has just voted to label China a “currency manipulator.”
from Davos Notebook:
The programme may strike a different note -- this year's Davos is apparently all about Shared Norms for the New Reality -- but much of the discussion at the 41st World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos this month will have a distinctly familiar ring to it.
Last January, the five-day talkfest in the Swiss Alps was dominated by Greece's near-death experience at the hands of the bond market and recriminations over the role of bankers in the financial crisis, as well as worries about China's rapid economic ascent and a lot of calls for a new trade deal.
Rising protectionism could kill off some multi-billion-dollar Asia takeovers this year, bankers say, noting that governments are increasingly keen to protect their national icons.
Qualcomm plans to buy Atheros Communications for roughly $3.2 billion in cash. Atheros makes chips for Bluetooth wireless and global positioning system devices.
from Financial Regulatory Forum:
(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
By Jim Saft
HUNTSVILLE, Ala., June 8 (Reuters) - It may be folly or it may be prudence, but the move to fiscal austerity and restraint will be deflationary, will be bad for risky asset prices and will raise further the threat of protectionism.
The weekend's meeting of the Group of 20 wealthy nations in Korea ended in a muddle of policies, with the final communique appearing to praise fiscal retrenching, expansionary policy, tighter regulation and slower implementation of that tighter regulation all at the same time, and all in the same impenetrable thicket of euphemism, buzzwords and consultant-speak.
from Financial Regulatory Forum:
GENEVA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Governments around the world continued to impose protectionist measures in the last quarter of 2009 despite economic stabilisation, according to a report from the Global Trade Alert website issued on Thursday.
The rate of protectionism at the end of last year was in line with quarterly rates earlier in 2009, said the independent trade watchdog.