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Reuters blog archive

from MacroScope:

Euro zone inflation falls again; economists base ECB rate cut calls on deja vu

Euro zone inflation has dipped again and some forecasters are hedging their bets on the policy response by saying the European Central Bank could either cut rates this week or sometime in the next two months.

That lack of conviction, although not a recent phenomenon, is driven by memory of the ECB's surprise cut in November after a similar drop in inflation and a nagging belief that things have not worsened enough in the interim to warrant another.

Only two of 76 analysts - Barclays and IFR Markets - in a Reuters poll conducted before news on Friday that January euro zone inflation fell to 0.7 percent said the ECB would trim its refinancing rate below 0.25 percent this week.

Now a few more, including Deutsche Bank and RBS say they will. While many economists say the decision is a close call, most lack conviction over whether it will do any good.

from MacroScope:

The Bank of Canada is probably not ready to seriously consider cutting rates — yet

With all signs showing the Canadian economic miracle is fading, the Bank of Canada is understandably starting to sound more dovish. The Canadian dollar has got a whiff of that, down about 10 percent from where it was this time last year.

But that doesn't mean Governor Stephen Poloz is ready to signal on Wednesday that his rate shears are about to get hauled out of the shed.

from MacroScope:

Hopes for a weaker euro looking more like fantasy

Hopes that the soaring euro will eventually fall and help the economy with a much-needed export boost for struggling euro zone nations are looking more and more like fantasy.

The collective talk about its inevitable drop is beginning to sound much like the drum-beat of opinion lasting more than half a decade that said the yen would fall while it stubbornly marched in the other direction.

from Expert Zone:

Why the RBI should cut rates again

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had hesitatingly cut the repo rate by 0.25 percent, which made no impression on the stock market or commercial banks. That was because both expected the cut to be more substantial. But the RBI had not obliged.

Perhaps the monsoon, which arrived on the dot and is progressing satisfactorily, may make some difference to the RBI’s expectations of food inflation - which had been its principal reason for hesitancy. While it’s too early to predict monsoon behaviour for the rest of the season and the likely improvement in agricultural production, it does appear the improvement should be significant and inflation dampened perceptibly. Reduction in inflation, however, is not the only reason why the interest rate should have been cut.

from Expert Zone:

Decoding Subbarao’s signals

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

When Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Duvvuri Subbarao announced last week that the central bank was cutting its policy interest rate for the third time this year, he also made a statement that may well have been directed as much to watchers of the Indian economy as to its managers. His message to the government, originally coded in technocratic diplomacy: It's time for you to do your share in reviving growth.

Financial markets had widely anticipated the RBI would cut its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, they also expected its policy guidance to adopt a less hawkish tone than in the two prior cuts. After all, inflation had continued to ease and the economy still needs all the support it can get to come back on the growth path. Instead, Subbarao was categorical in saying that the "growth-inflation dynamic yields little space for further monetary easing."

from Expert Zone:

Need to bring repo rate in line with inflation

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

For nearly three years now, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy has had a single target. The presumption is that only when inflation is below the tolerance limit can the interest rate be made normal.

The last time the repo rate was reduced was on March 19 when it was cut by 0.25 percent, a change understandably ignored by commercial banks and other financial institutions. With the repo rate at 7.5 percent and inflation down to 5.9 percent, the market expects the RBI to cut the repo rate further at its next policy review on May 3.

from Expert Zone:

The wait for the rate cut

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

At its mid-quarter review on Jan. 18, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not cut the repo rate and also left the CRR unchanged. But it raised hopes that policy easing can follow in the fourth quarter.

from India Insight:

Subbarao: an RBI governor who can hold his own

When RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao had his tenure extended last year, a TV channel reported that 90 percent of bankers, economists and bond dealers in a poll felt the extension was good for the economy.

In June 2012, less than a year later, people were criticising him for defying widespread calls to cut interest rates, as stubborn inflation continued to bother him more than slowing growth .

from Expert Zone:

The RBI and its inflation dilemma

(Arvind Chari is a senior fund manager of Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Quantum AMC or Reuters.)

The wholesale price index number for September (7.81 percent) poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). With the finance ministry leaving no opportunity to make its case for lower interest rates and exhorting the RBI to take ‘calibrated risks’, the recent inflation data gives no comfort to the RBI to go ahead and confidently cut the repo rate in its October policy review.

from India Insight:

RBI plays wait-and-watch game as politics dominates

Not surprisingly, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold on Monday, just days after the Congress-led government dropped a cluster bomb of several reform measures on "big bang Friday".

Though most experts thought that the RBI would not cut rates on Monday, markets were hoping that central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao would oblige them just a little bit. The Sensex ended 78 points higher, but was up 200 points in anticipation.

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