Rants from TV commentators aside, the market’s going to be keenly focused on Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony today, with a specific eye toward whether the Fed chair moderates her concerns about joblessness, under-employment and the overall dynamism of the labor force that has been left somewhat wanting in this recovery. The June jobs report, where payrolls grew by 288,000, was welcome news even as the economy continues to suffer due to low labor-force participation and weak wage growth.
The ‘taper tantrum’ of May and June, as the mid-year spike in interest rates became known, appears to have humbled Federal Reserve officials into having a second look at their convictions about the power of forward guidance on interest rate policy.
Central banks in Europe have followed in the Federal Reserve’s footsteps by adopting “forward guidance” in a break with tradition. But, as in the Fed’s case, the increased transparency seems to have only made investors more confused.
from Alison Frankel:
There's a new entry in the category of no-brainers: A holder of Barclays American Depository Receipts has brought the first of what is sure to be a string of Libor-related securities fraud class actions. The 47-page complaint, filed by Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz in federal court in Manhattan, asserts that Barclays and its former CEO, Bob Diamond, and outgoing chairman, Marcus Agius, lied to shareholders when they failed to disclose the bank's manipulation of reports to the authorities who calculate the daily London interbank offered rate (or Libor), a benchmark for short-term interest rates.
U.S. Treasuries have taken quite a battering this week, and there has been no shortage of explanations from market pundits. For some, the downturn reflects an improving economy and the pricing out of expectations for further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. For others, the market is playing catch up after eyeing firmer inflation numbers and a better if still anemic employment backdrop.