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from Breakingviews:

London real estate at an inflection point

By George Hay

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Most real estate valuers in London think property prices in the UK capital are about to fall. That prediction has been easy to make and easier to get wrong in the last five years. This time, the evidence that global investors’ favourite housing market has peaked is looking credible.

House prices in London as a whole are still rising on a monthly and annual basis, and are 20 percent more expensive than a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics. But there is stasis in the process upstream. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ latest monthly survey shows a sharp dip in those wanting to buy in London, and an even sharper jump in those keen to sell.

Monthly sales volumes are off 17 percent in Greater London since December, says the Land Registry. A small majority of RICS’ members now expect values in the city to fall in sympathy.

from Expert Zone:

When are house prices a worry?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

As I speak with a relatively recognizable British accent, travelling by taxi in many Asian countries has become something of a trial in recent years. Whenever my nationality is recognized, I am (courteously) asked for my views on the London property market, and where to buy. In a world of low interest rates, property has become increasingly fashionable, and somehow housing advice delivered in a British accent has become highly sought after.

The development of One Hyde Park is seen in LondonProperty prices in London are now over 30 percent above their pre-crisis level. For the rest of the UK, house prices are now back where they were before the onset of the economic crisis (it should be noted that the economy is around 13 percent larger in nominal terms over the same period, so the house price to GDP ratio has fallen for the country as a whole). In the United States, house prices have yet to regain their pre-crash levels, but they are up 20 percent from their lows. Even in the Euro area, not an economy noted for its vibrancy, German property prices are 10 percent higher than they were before the crisis.

from Edward Hadas:

Housing, the ultimate momentum trade

What will happen next in the housing market? The question comes up all the time in many countries, for an obvious reason: house prices jump around too fast for the good of the economy.

The price hyperactivity does not follow a uniform pattern around the world. Look at the indices of average prices for dwellings by nation, adjusted for inflation, compiled by the Bank for International Settlements. Since 2000, the real average price is up by 63 percent in the UK, by 49 percent in Switzerland and by 12 percent in the United States. The average Dutch price declined by 7 percent. In Germany, though, there has been so little house price action that BIS could only find data back to 2003. Since then, the average German price is down by a tiny 1 percent in real terms.

from Breakingviews:

U.S. home affordability on way to lowest in years

By Daniel Indiviglio and Richard Beales

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

U.S. homes may soon be as unaffordable as they have been in decades. With the Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates, house prices rising and incomes not keeping pace, the dream of home ownership – cheaper after the 2008 downturn – is receding again for many. A new Breakingviews calculator shows that by 2017 homebuyers may have to stretch once again.

from Breakingviews:

Can sterling hit $2? Only with a perfect storm

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. 

Sterling has touched $1.70 and is on the brink of bursting ranges which have confined it for five years. Could a resurgent pound return to pre-crisis levels of $2?

from Breakingviews:

Blunt instrument is needed for global house bubble

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

House price bubbles thrust economies forward and crush them when they burst. The International Monetary Fund has now raised the prospect of a global housing bubble that could potentially destabilise the world economy. The risk is credible, but the IMF is sadly too coy about the root cause of the problem – ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy.

from Breakingviews:

Review: “House of Debt” diagnosis beats remedies

By Martin Hutchinson

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Atif Mian and Amir Sufi are better at diagnosis than cure. In their book, “House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again,” the two professors make a compelling case that excess consumer debt caused the severity of the U.S. Great Recession. Unfortunately their mortgage bailout proposal would worsen future such problems. Another idea, shared value mortgages, might work partially – but tighter monetary policy would work better still.

from Hugo Dixon:

Six solutions for the UK housing crisis

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

Britain’s main economic problem is that the supply of homes isn’t rising nearly as fast as demand. This doesn’t just create the risk of a new housing bubble; young people are finding it increasingly hard to find places to live, especially in crowded London and southeast England. So I make no apologies for returning to the topic after only three weeks.

from Breakingviews:

UK housing bounce obscures a credit-lite recovery

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Strength in the UK housing market is obscuring a credit-lite recovery in the broader economy. It is easy to see why there is concern about a British house price bubble, but the bigger worry should still be the sustainability and breadth of the economic revival.

from Breakingviews:

Bank of England can overlook Russia’s problems

By Ian Campbell, Edward Hadas

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

The British housing market is out of control. Many have called for the Bank of England to respond with a rate increase. It’s not that simple. London is not the UK, and the foreign funds which are supporting the capital’s bubble may fade away.

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