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from Expert Zone:
Hard currency status a wishful dream for the rupee
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
A hard currency is one that is globally accepted as an exchange currency for trade. It is also expected to remain less volatile in the short term and indicate long-term stability through its purchasing power. The perceived strength and confidence in a currency is also a function of its country’s political milieu, fiscal and trade balances, the policy of its central bank and future economic outlook.
Let us look at all these parameters in the context of the Indian rupee and see where it stands on its journey towards acceptance as a hard currency.
India is still insignificant in global merchandise exports and it may take at least a decade, if not more, to improve substantially. During this phase, it will remain energy deficient and hence import oil and other energy equivalents. Though India in the past has done specific bilateral trades (rupee-rouble for example) and may continue to do so in future with specific countries, it is bound to take a long time for the rupee to find wider acceptance in global trade.
Despite India’s substantial economic progress over the decades to emerge today among the ten largest economies in the world in nominal GDP terms and the top three in PPP terms, the rupee has not kept pace with this progress and has witnessed periods of high volatility. In the last five years, it has depreciated in excess of 5 percent of the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). This can clearly be attributed to expansionary trends in India’s fiscal and current account deficit. Until India traverses the distance from a trade-deficit economy to a neutral or trade-surplus nation, the rupee will always remain unhinged.
from Expert Zone:
India Markets Weekahead – Volatility seen as RBI policy review in focus
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
Volatility is here to stay and trying to predict the markets on a daily basis is a futile exercise. It’s no better than tossing a coin.
Monsoon rains are early and heavier then normal, raising the hopes of green shoots in the next few months. Macro numbers were showing signs of bottoming out but the rupee slide has thrown calculations awry. A feeble request by the finance minister urging people to shun gold won’t do much good in a country enamoured by gold.
from Expert Zone:
Why the RBI should cut rates again
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had hesitatingly cut the repo rate by 0.25 percent, which made no impression on the stock market or commercial banks. That was because both expected the cut to be more substantial. But the RBI had not obliged.
Perhaps the monsoon, which arrived on the dot and is progressing satisfactorily, may make some difference to the RBI’s expectations of food inflation - which had been its principal reason for hesitancy. While it’s too early to predict monsoon behaviour for the rest of the season and the likely improvement in agricultural production, it does appear the improvement should be significant and inflation dampened perceptibly. Reduction in inflation, however, is not the only reason why the interest rate should have been cut.
from Global Investing:
Bond investors’ pre-budget optimism in India
Ten-year Indian bond yields have fallen 30 basis points this year alone and many forecast the gains will extend further. It all depends on two things though -- the Feb 28 budget of which great things are expected, and second, the March 19 central bank meeting. The latter potentially could see the RBI, arguably the world's most hawkish central bank, finally turn dovish.
Barclays is advising clients to bid for quotas to buy Indian government and corporate bonds at this Wednesday's foreigners' quota auction (India's securities exchange, SEBI, will auction around $12.3 billion in quotas for foreign investors to buy bonds). Analysts at the bank noted that this would be the last auction before the central bank meeting at which a quarter point rate cut is expected. Moreover the Reserve Bank of India will signal more to come, Barclays says, predicting 75 bps in total starting March.
from India Insight:
Understanding the repo rate, cash reserve ratio and the Reserve Bank of India
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday cut the repo rate as well as the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percent. Here's a quick explanation of what that means. It will be obvious to some readers, but many people haven't studied economics and are unfamiliar with the terms.
The repo rate, which now stands at 7.75 percent, is the rate at which the central bank lends money to Indian banks. As the repo rate goes down, it gets cheaper for banks to borrow money. That makes it easier for people to borrow money at cheaper rates too. As more people borrow money, which ought to be the result of action like this, they'll spend more money. That's good for the Indian economy.
from Expert Zone:
When will the repo rate be reduced?
(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)
In his policy review on Oct. 30, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D. Subbarao stuck to his position that money cannot be made cheap when commodities are becoming expensive.
from India Insight:
Miffed Chidambaram widens rift with RBI
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram usually does not talk to the throng of news-hungry reporters and cameramen gathered outside the gates of the red sandstone colonial building which houses the finance ministry. A 'no comment' or 'I don't have anything to say' suffices on an ordinary day. Tuesday, however, was not an ordinary day.
Some two hours after the Reserve Bank of India announced it would leave the repo rate unchanged, and said that battling inflation was a more important priority than backing growth, the assertive finance minister arrived in the ministry. He got out of his car and walked up to the voice recorders, microphones and camera-toting journalists waiting in the driveway.
from India Insight:
RBI plays wait-and-watch game as politics dominates
Not surprisingly, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold on Monday, just days after the Congress-led government dropped a cluster bomb of several reform measures on "big bang Friday".
Though most experts thought that the RBI would not cut rates on Monday, markets were hoping that central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao would oblige them just a little bit. The Sensex ended 78 points higher, but was up 200 points in anticipation.
from Global Investing:
India, a hawk among central bank doves
So India has not joined emerging central banks' rate-cutting spree . After recent rate cuts in Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, Philippines and Colombia, and others signalling their worries over the state of economic growth, hawks are in short supply among the world's increasingly dovish central banks. But the Reserve Bank of India is one.
With GDP growth slowing to 10-year lows, the RBI would dearly love to follow other central banks in cutting rates. But its pointed warning on inflation on the eve of today's policy meeting practically sealed the meeting's outcome. Interest rates have duly been kept on hold, though in a nod to the tough conditions, the RBI did ease banks' statutory liquidity ratio. The move will free up some more cash for lending.
from Expert Zone:
Time to think beyond monetary policy rates?
(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)
Irrespective of the RBI monetary policy review and its outcome, the fact that policy rates have assumed such obsessive focus needs closer scrutiny.
