Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: ‎Ride the election rally but skim the profits

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The market began the week on a high note after an extended weekend but could not sustain the rally due to profit booking. The Nifty was at a high of 6570 on Tuesday but the rest of the trading days remained lackluster and it ended the week with a marginal loss - at 6495 after the extended trading session on Saturday.

Although the week was marked with heightened political activity as candidates for the general election were announced, the U.S Federal Reserve had a sobering effect on the markets. The Fed decision to continue with further tapering of $10 billion and focus on interest rates, which should start rising sooner than expected, saw corrections in most markets as the dollar strengthened.

The sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union over its annexation of Crimea did not cause any upheaval. But one needs to see whether the sanctions will be escalated further and monitor its fallout on the world economy, especially in Europe.

In India, FIIs continued to be buyers in the pre-election rally and pumped in about $739 million last week. The rupee, which turned weak on news of the Fed decision, was quick to bounce back to 60.89 against the dollar, close to a six-month high.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Markets move into pre-election rally

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A spectacular rally in the last few days has put the market in a pre-election mode, buoyant with hopes of a stable and reform-oriented government. Led by institutional buying and the resultant short squeeze, the markets rallied more than 3 percent in the last two trading sessions - closing the week at 6526, a record high for Nifty. The markets seemed to have moved into a new territory with metals, realty, banking, capital goods, infrastructure and energy sectors participating in the rally.

 Generally, the data points for a pre-election rally are the developments on political activities and opinion polls. The economic data takes a backseat in this “rally of hope” and markets take a keen interest in electoral analysis.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Markets back on track for pre-election rally

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The week started on a sombre note but with institutional activity picking up, the Nifty closed with gains of 1.97 percent at 6276 despite a mid-week trading holiday. Political activity also gained momentum with 11 parties coming together to form a Third Front to oppose both national parties.

 

The Election Commission may announce election dates in the coming week -- the code of conduct coming in will halt any policy decisions.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Time to size up portfolio

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a scare earlier in the week, the markets showed resilience at lower levels and bounced back, showing the confidence of participants. Though Nifty closed 26 points lower for the week at 6063, sentiment was much better than the previous week.

from Expert Zone:

Interest rates likely to remain high

Photo

(Rajiv Deep Bajaj is the Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Capital Ltd. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Thomson Reuters)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 8 percent at its policy review meet in January. The reverse repo rate rose to 7 percent while the bank rate and marginal standing facility rate climbed to 9 percent. This is the third hike in repo rate since RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan assumed office in early September.

from Expert Zone:

Why the RBI raised interest rates

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates at its review on Jan 28. The justification usually given for doing so is inflation.

But at its previous review, when inflation had soared, the RBI was passive and left rates unchanged. Now, with wholesale price inflation (WPI) slowing to 6.16 percent, the RBI was quick to raise the repo rate by 25 bps back to its highest level since the 2008 crisis. Why?

from Expert Zone:

How much will U.S. recovery help India?

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a prolonged slowdown, the U.S. economy is finally showing signs of recovery though much of it comes from investment in inventories and may not be sustained at the present high rate.

The United States is the largest economy with a share of more than 22 percent in the world GDP. Naturally, even small changes in its behaviour have a perceptible impact worldwide. To India, the United States counts for a lot, although possibly less than it does for China.

from India Insight:

Sensex performers in 2013: TCS surges 73 percent, Sun Pharma gains 54 percent

Photo

By Aditya Karla and Sankalp Phartiyal

The BSE Sensex ended 2013 with gains of 9 percent after hitting life highs during the year. The benchmark index touched an all-time high of 21,483.74 on Dec. 9 after falling to a 2013 low of 17,448.71 in August.

Foreign inflows boosted sentiment on the street even as concerns about a slowing economy and high inflation weighed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought a net $20.1 billion worth of Indian shares in the year. FIIs had bought $24.5 billion worth of stocks in 2012.

from Expert Zone:

Indian hedge funds get knocked down but get up again

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The fortunes of hedge funds focused on India continue to twist and turn, with many plots and subplots. After witnessing widespread losses and heavy redemptions in 2008, Indian hedge fund managers bounced back remarkably to post a 50 percent return in 2009. They continued their good form in 2010, delivering healthy gains of 12 percent during the year.

But in 2011, the managers witnessed losses amid declining markets and a depreciating rupee. At the end of that year, many managers expressed confidence in the underlying market for the following year and predicted gains for the rupee by mid-2012 -- both these predictions came to pass. The Eurekahedge Indian Hedge Fund Index was up 13.13 percent in 2012, making it the strongest regional hedge fund mandate for the year. Some of the funds even witnessed asset inflows in 2012 and early 2013, a rarity for Indian hedge funds since the financial crisis.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Results of state elections a key driver

Photo

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets had been on a roller-coaster ride but closed weak for the third week in the row with the Nifty in the 5950-6000 range providing support.

A hint from the U.S. Federal Reserve on tapering its bond-buying programme was enough to spook the markets. Though this is expected in the first quarter of the new year, it remains to be seen whether chairman-elect Janet Yellen's dovish stance would postpone it further.

  •