Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Breakingviews:

Sanctions on Russia will cost less than inaction

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin has set the stage well for the first international talks on Ukraine. Armed pro-Russian separatists have seized buildings in several eastern Ukrainian cities. Their uniforms and weapons suggest they are equipped by the Russian army, if not part of it. The rebels’ success has shown that the government in Kiev is not in control of the country – not even of its own security forces.

It’s far from certain that Putin wants to annex part of all of Ukraine, Crimea-style. He has already reached his goal: he has demonstrated that Ukraine doesn’t have a real government, after encouraging Russian-speaking separatists and drowning eastern Ukraine with relentless propaganda on Russian-language TV channels. Those are techniques of agitation and provocation taken from the best old-style KGB handbooks.

Russia’s stated goal for Ukraine is “federalisation” – wide regional autonomy that would result in a de facto split of the country, with the eastern half under Moscow’s influence. Putin has backed his demand with open threat of military intervention to “protect Russian speakers.” He hopes that Europe and the United States will cave in, fearful of the consequences of a full-blown economic war.

from John Lloyd:

The coalition of the reluctant

Photo

Russia is currently winning the Game of Empire. It has taken Crimea and it is closing in on Eastern Ukraine. Whether or not more will be invaded, no one can tell.

We are not accustomed to leaders of great states who go for broke. Meet a leader of a great state who is going for broke. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, a man of history.

from The Great Debate:

Odessa: Ukrainian port that inspired big dreams

Photo

Tensions have been rising in many corners of Ukraine as the threat of a Russian intervention looms. Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa is one such corner of dispute between Moscow and Kiev, where macro-battles have been transformed into a seemingly endless chain of micro-conflicts.

Supporters of both countries have taken to marching through the streets, ominously threatening each other. The Ukrainian government is trying to wrest control of the local oil refinery -- one of the country’s most important -- away from a Russian bank. Tension is visible in the smallest aspects of life.

from MacroScope:

Greeks bearing bonds

Greece will sell its first bond in four years.

We know it will aim to raise up to 2.5 billion euros of five-year paper via syndication and wants to pay less than 5.3 percent – remarkable since only two years ago it was tipped to crash out of the euro zone and yields on 10-year debt peaked above 40 percent on the secondary market. They dropped below six percent for the first time since 2010 on Wednesday.

Athens has no pressing funding needs but wants to test the waters as part of its strategy to cover all its financing from the market by 2016. It still has a mountain to climb and may well need more debt relief from its EU partners to corral a national debt that is not falling much from 175 percent of GDP. 

from MacroScope:

A question of gas

Vladimir Putin will meet senior Russian government officials to discuss Russia's economic ties with Ukraine, including on energy after state-controlled natural gas producer Gazprom said Kiev missed a deadline to pay a $2.2 billion bill.

In previous years, gas disputes between Moscow and Kiev have hurt supplies to Europe. The Ukraine government has said it would take Russia to an arbitration court if Moscow failed to roll back gas price hikes.

from Breakingviews:

Russia would pay steep price for Ukraine invasion

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin wants to destabilise Ukraine, but he may balk at the economic price Russia would pay for a full-blown invasion. The seizure of government buildings in several eastern Ukrainian cities has rekindled fears of military intervention in the mostly Russian-speaking parts of the country. A major consideration before sending in troops would be the price paid by Russia’s economy. Putin can expect to be severely punished by both markets and Western governments.

from MacroScope:

Ukraine inching back to the brink

Pro-Moscow protesters in eastern Ukraine took up arms in one city and declared a separatist republic in another yesterday and the new build-up of tensions continues this morning.

The Kiev government has launched what it calls “anti-terrorist” operations in the eastern city of Kharkiv and arrested about 70 separatists. Moscow has responded by demanding Kiev stop massing military forces in the south-east of the country.

from MacroScope:

To QE or not to QE?

ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio testifies to the European Parliament prior to attending the IMF Spring meeting in Washington at the back end of the week along with Mario Draghi and other colleagues. Jens Weidmann, Yves Mersch and Ewald Nowotny also speak today.

There has undoubtedly been a change in tone from the ECB, which is now openly talking about printing money if inflation stays too low for too long (no mention of deflation being the required trigger any more). Even Bundesbank chief Weidmann has done so.

from MacroScope:

Reasons to do nothing

It’s ECB day and the general belief is that it won’t do anything despite inflation dropping to 0.5 percent in March, chalking up its sixth successive month in the European Central Bank’s “danger zone” below 1 percent.

The reasons? Policymakers expect inflation to rise in April for a variety of reasons, one being that this year's late Easter has delayed the impact of rising travel and hotel prices at a time when many Europeans take a holiday. Depressed food prices might also start to rise before long.

from The Great Debate:

Obama: Ineffectually Challenged

Photo

President Barack Obama is in a funk. Americans are coming to see the president as ineffectual. That is a dangerous perception.

Obama's job approval rating is at risk of dropping below 40 percent. Democrats may lose their majority in the Senate this fall. It may be difficult for the president to accomplish anything during his last two years.

  •