from MacroScope:

UK politics thrown up in the air

By Mike Peacock
November 21, 2014

Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP, cheers as it is announced that UKIP candidate Mark Reckless won the by-election at Medway Park in Gillingham

As predicted, Britain’s surging anti-EU party UKIP snatched a second parliamentary seat from the ruling Conservatives overnight.

from MacroScope:

EU uneasy about Hungary’s closeness to Russia

By Mike Peacock
November 19, 2014

Hungary's PM Orban arrives at an EU leaders summit in Brussels

After Germany's foreign minister saw "no reason for optimism" after talks in Moscow on Tuesday, today Hungary’s Peter Szijjarto meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Violence is on the rise again in eastern Ukraine and tougher sanctions against Russia remain a live possibility although EU foreign ministers limited themselves to targeting a few more Ukrainian separatists earlier this week.

from MacroScope:

Will Germany’s Q4 get any better?

By Mike Peacock
November 18, 2014

Traders are pictured at their desks in front of the DAX board at the Frankfurt stock exchange

Germany’s ZEW index will give an indication of whether the fourth quarter will be any better for Europe’s largest economy after it barely escaped recession in Q3. In October, the index dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years.

from MacroScope:

Draghi back in the dock

By Mike Peacock
November 17, 2014

E

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi faces lengthy interrogation at the European Parliament today.

from The Great Debate:

Putin waging information war in Ukraine worthy of George Orwell

By Lucian Kim
November 14, 2014

A chicken walks near a residential block and a car damaged by recent shelling in Donetsk

It was a familiar scenario this week. First the government in Kiev said that Russia was sending convoys of men and weapons to support pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine. Then U.S. General Philip Breedlove, NATO’s top commander in Europe, confirmed those claims, saying “there is no question anymore about Russia’s direct military involvement in Ukraine.” His remarks were summarily denied by the Russian Defense Ministry, which said it had stopped paying attention to his “unfounded proclamations.”

from MacroScope:

Germany just dodges recession

By Mike Peacock
November 14, 2014

Traders are pictured at their desks in front of the DAX board at the Frankfurt stock exchange

After European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi managed to bring his colleagues into line to sign up to his 1 trillion euros or so target to push into the ailing euro zone economy, today sees a raft of third quarter GDP reports which are likely to show just why more help may be needed.

from MacroScope:

UK election – a race to the bottom?

By Mike Peacock
November 13, 2014

Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Miliband speaks at the CBI annual conference in London

The theme of both Britain’s main political parties behaving like they want to lose next May’s election continues.

from MacroScope:

A Bank of England dovecote?

By Mike Peacock
November 12, 2014

Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chairman Mark Carney arrives for a news conference at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel

The Bank of England will produce its quarterly inflation report today. With wage growth still notable by its absence and inflation dropping to just 1.2 percent in September, noises from within the BoE suggest the timing of a first interest rate rise is heading further over the horizon.

from Ian Bremmer:

Oil price plummet won’t help U.S. with Iran or Russia

By Ian Bremmer
November 11, 2014

A motorist holds a fuel pump at a Gulf petrol station in London

Plummeting oil prices — down more than 25 percent since June to three-year lows — should relieve pressure on consumers at the pump. But is it pushing oil-exporting regimes past the breaking point?

from MacroScope:

The rouble and the hryvnia

By Mike Peacock
November 11, 2014

A reflection of a yearly chart of U.S. dollars and Russian roubles are seen on rouble notes in this illustration picture taken in Warsaw

Ukraine's currency shed nearly 5 percent on Monday after a weekend that saw the heaviest shelling in a month of the main rebel stronghold in the east and signs that Moscow had dispatched troops and tanks to reinforce separatists. The prospect that a two-month-old ceasefire could collapse has helped drive the currency 12 percent lower since the central bank abandoned an unofficial peg a week ago.