from The Great Debate:

Britain prepares for a campaign into political turbulence

By John Lloyd
April 10, 2015

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron stands alongside Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, and Ed Miliband the leader of the opposition Labour Party as they attend the Commemoration Service for Afghanistan at St Paul's Cathedral in London

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron (L) stands alongside Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, and Ed Miliband the leader of the opposition Labour Party at St Paul's Cathedral in London, March 13, 2015. REUTERS/Pool/John Stillwell

from MacroScope:

Crunch time

By Mike Peacock
January 22, 2015

ECB President Draghi addresses during ECB news conference in Frankfurt

The biggest policy decision of the year? The first U.S. interest rate rise may trump it whenever it comes and the Swiss National Bank has set the bar pretty high but an awful lot hangs on what the European Central Bank comes up with today.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

It ain’t over yet: Last-minute promises to Scotland will scar the UK

By Anatole Kaletsky
September 26, 2014

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron delivers a speech at the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre in Aberdeen, Scotland

Astonishing as it was to contemplate the breakup of Europe’s most stable nation-state threatened by last week’s Scottish referendum, we now have an even more extraordinary possibility. In the days since the Scottish voters rejected secession 55 percent to 45 percent, a new threat has suddenly appeared to blight Britain’s political and economic prospects for years ahead. It now looks like Britain may be dissolved by one rogue opinion poll.

from The Great Debate:

It ain’t over yet: Last-minute promises to Scotland will scar the UK

By Anatole Kaletsky
September 26, 2014

[CROSSPOST blog: 2545 post: 1414]

Original Post Text:

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron delivers a speech at the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre in Aberdeen, Scotland

Astonishing as it was to contemplate the breakup of Europe’s most stable nation-state threatened by last week’s Scottish referendum, we now have an even more extraordinary possibility. In the days since the Scottish voters rejected secession 55 percent to 45 percent, a new threat has suddenly appeared to blight Britain’s political and economic prospects for years ahead. It now looks like Britain may be dissolved by one rogue opinion poll.

from MacroScope:

A long haul

By Mike Peacock
September 24, 2014

U.S. Navy handout shows EA-6B Prowler attached to the Garudas of Electronic Attack Squadron 134 landing aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush after conducting strike missions against Islamic State targets, in the Gulf

Having largely sailed through this year’s choppy (to say the least) geopolitical waters, markets are a little discomfited by U.S. air strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State militants ... though only a little.

from Hugo Dixon:

Now on to the Brexit referendum

By Hugo Dixon
September 22, 2014

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

from MacroScope:

Europe looks again to Draghi

By Mike Peacock
September 22, 2014

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Surprisingly low take-up at last week’s first round of cheap four-year loans by the European Central Bank begs a number of questions – How low is demand for credit and what does that say about the state of the economy? Are banks cowed by the upcoming stress tests? Does this make an eventual leap to QE more likely?

from Breakingviews:

Scots’ no to independence still leaves UK in limbo

September 19, 2014

By George Hay

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from MacroScope:

Not really that close

By Mike Peacock
September 19, 2014

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond speaks at the "Yes" Campaign headquarters in Edinburgh, Scotland

So what was all the fuss about?

A first rough draft of history would suggest the one opinion poll that gave the independents a lead nearly two weeks ago scared the Bejesus not only out of the British establishment but a significant chunk of Scottish voters too.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Apres Fed, le Deluge

September 18, 2014

The Kremlinologists turned out to be right, and the Federal Reserve left its "considerable time" language in its statement to assure the markets that it would be around for a while longer with rock bottom rates. It's the divergent (to a point) reaction out of the markets themselves that is interesting to parse, and will be key to watch in coming weeks and months. The action in the stock market was to suggest the entire exercise was a snooze-fest, with stocks ending marginally higher (yes, the Dow at a new record) but not too far from where the major averages were trading just before the news. Which is to say the equity market, always the most optimistic of U.S. markets, has it in mind that low rates stay for now, and until "now" is "then," it's time to party.