Reuters blog archive
from Global Investing:
The Year of the Snake is considered one of the less auspicious in the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle. And 2013 is the year of the Black Water Snake, which comes around once every 60 years and is seen as the least fortuitous. How China's stock markets turn out after years of poor performance remains to be seen but the snake is providing banks and asset managers with plenty of food for thought. Many of them have been gazing into the crystal ball to see what 2013 may hold for Chinese markets.
Fidelity Worldwide investments highlights the ‘Snakes and Ladders’ that could influence Chinese equities this year. (They have a great accompanying illustration)
Fidelity's Raymond Ma reckons there are six ‘R’s’ that could act as ‘ladders’ to buoy Chinese equity markets this year: recovery, reverse, reform, reflation, re-rating and rally. Under snakes he names inflation, a continued depreciation of the Japanese yen, excessive corporate debt/equity issuance, a prolonged euro zone crisis and an earlier-than-expected end to quantitative easing in the United States.
But past snake years have been the worst of the cycle for world markets, analysts at CMC Markets point out. Their analysis shows that the S&P 500 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng have generally posted losses, while UK returns have been below average. The Hang Seng has fared particularly poorly (down four snake years in a row with average losses of 16.7 percent) So, will the curse hold this year, CMC ask: