Call it Turnaround Tuesday here after investors had rediscovered something of a new era of good feelings of late, with the S&P 500 hanging in there at the 2000 level, bond yields reaching heights not seen in a solid month (yes, that’s not that long), and even a modest widening in the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields, to about 100 basis points. Oil was actually sniffing around $40 a barrel as well.
G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Istanbul will pledge to act decisively on monetary and fiscal policy if needed to combat the risk of stagnation, according to a draft communique obtained by Reuters last night. As has been customary at these summits, a lot of the discussion implicitly centres on Germany.
The French government faces a confidence vote in the national assembly after President Francois Hollande and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, ousted dissident ministers in a signal perhaps that they are prepared to push ahead with unpopular structural reforms to breathe life into a moribund economy.
Coming data on same-store sales will help illuminate whether the modest upward tick in prices is something that is being replicated throughout the economy and signalling a stronger overall economy or perhaps one that remains more weighted to the most wealthy in the United States. According to Thomson Reuters data, Costco is poised to post the strongest same-store sales figures among the retail chains, though its 4.6 percent estimated increase would fall short of the 5 percent rise a year ago. The figures have a bit less utility than in the past given the likes of Wal-Mart stopped supplying this data years ago, but you work with what you have. Either way, it's notable that the discounters have been weak this year - a sign of lackluster spending outlooks for lower income Americans.
from Alison Frankel:
I'm going to confess right here that I don't possess the requisite statistical skills to hazard an opinion on whether shareholders benefit when their corporation engages in lobbying and campaign expenditures. If you have a more powerful appetite for numbers than I do, John Coates of Harvard Law School offers a bibliography of academic studies that conclude corporate political spending is bad for shareholders at the Harvard Forum on Corporate Governance (including his own influential 2012 paper for the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies). Want a different view? A pair of economics consultants from Sonecon disputed Coates and those who think likewise in a 2012 paper for the Manhattan Institute that found corporate political spending has "a generally positive effect" on a company's value, in terms of market returns. You can pick whichever analysis suits you because I'm not going to argue the merits of either. I do believe, however, that regardless of the benefits of lobbying and campaign contributions, shareholders have a right to know when and how their money is being spent on politics.
As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered what may have been his last testimony on monetary policy before Congress, most of the world’s attention was focused on what hints he might give about the timing of an eventual reduction in the pace of asset purchases.