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from Expert Zone:

In defence of the defensives: Why IT, pharma stocks are not pariahs

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Expectation that the ongoing general election will throw up a stable government has spurred a return to risk in domestic equities. The consequent rally has meant those favoured defensives of the sluggish times - information technology and pharma stocks - received a shearing.

The CNX IT index shed 7.8 percent and CNX Pharma 10.1 percent in March - even as the benchmark Nifty surged 6.8 percent.

Assuming a strong government is indeed voted in, will it mean the two export-oriented sectors will become market pariahs? Unlikely.

The reason for this is not hard to find. Have a look at what was behind the recent weakness.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Behind Wall Street’s anxiety

The recent economic news has been about as investor-friendly as anyone could imagine.

It started with last week’s strong U.S. employment figures; continued through Tuesday’s reassuring International Monetary Fund forecasts, which put the probability of avoiding a global recession this year to 99.9 percent, and culminated in dovish Federal Reserve minutes, which soothed concerns about an earlier than expected  increase in U.S. interest rates.

from MacroScope:

Pinning down the January effect on U.S. jobs figures

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With Wall Street grappling to hold on to its record highs, a lot is riding on good news from the U.S. economy, no matter how high the Federal Reserve has set the bar for backing off its clear plan to end its monetary stimulus program this year.

After two huge upsets in a row on the important U.S. economic data releases since Christmas -- December non-farm payrolls and the January ISM manufacturing report, forecasters are lining up again for an improvement in hiring.

from Expert Zone:

As liquidity dries, time for fundamentals

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The focus is back where it should be for equity investors - fundamentals.

In the past few years,  markets around the world have swayed to the wave of liquidity unleashed by central banks in a bid to get their economies back on track. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for one, was buying as much as $85 billion of bonds a month since September 2012. But that tap is beginning to taper with the Fed reducing purchases by $10 billion in January and another $10 billion in February.

We feel that this, together with a host of factors at home, sets the stage for a more sanguine approach to equities. I indicated in my note last month that we expect 2014 to be a year of fragile recovery for the Indian economy. The scenario will be similar for Indian equities.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Investors to remain bullish in election season

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the repo rate unchanged and a dovish statement from Ben Bernanke in his last news conference as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman improved sentiment with the Nifty closing 106 points higher at 6,274.

Markets tottered for three days during the week amid fears the Nifty could break a crucial support zone between 6,120 and 6,140. Investors had discounted a 25 bps hike in monetary policy based on inflation numbers that were the highest in 14 months. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan should be lauded for taking a practical stance as food inflation is expected to cool considerably in December due to improved supplies and the monsoon effect.

from Breakingviews:

Equity optimists may fast create a crowded trade

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Many large institutional asset managers expect developed stocks to march higher next year. They predict that companies will ramp up capital expenditure and fiscal policy will become less restrictive. That may well happen. The risk is that too much money is chasing the same idea. Crowded trades are rarely safe bets.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Lack of positive triggers in the near term

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Indian markets are in a corrective phase after RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s monetary policy review on Sept. 20 put a damper on investor expectations. If Rajan had played to the galleries, we would have seen a stock market bubble. The move from pessimism to euphoria -- a rally of nearly 20 percent in less than three weeks -- without any perceptible change in ground realities, would have led to a bull trap. Though participation levels were not high, FIIs had turned buyers and it would have been a matter of time before dormant market participants jumped into the fray.

Barclays is the latest to cut India’s GDP forecast to 4.7 percent. Most of the others have cut their forecast to below 5 percent although the government is still hoping for an early recovery. The banking sector was under pressure after Fitch cut its rating for a number of public sector banks such as Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Indian Bank.

from Expert Zone:

NSEL crisis puts spotlight on conflict of interest

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily of Reuters)

The ongoing National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) payment crisis has highlighted the need for better regulation of commodities exchanges and increased transparency in corporate governance.

from India Insight:

Banking stocks surge in September; analysts cautious

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After falling for four consecutive months, India's banking stocks have surged in September on value buying and recent measures announced by the new Reserve Bank of India chief, but analysts remain cautious.

On his first day in office, RBI chief Raghuram Rajan announced measures to prop up the rupee and liberalise the banking system, including higher overseas borrowing limits for lenders and simpler branch opening processes.

from Expert Zone:

When will the rupee stabilize?

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The rupee hit a series of record lows in August, rattling the stock market and forcing policymakers to step in. But the fall was necessary to correct India’s past mistakes and improve the dynamics of the economy. Stock markets were jolted because the rupee's slide was sudden. But then that is how markets behave.

International markets, be it for currencies or commodities, are sensitive and therefore volatile due to underlying speculation that is difficult to control. Eventually, however, a stable point is reached at which point they settle down.

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