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from Global Investing:

Certain danger: Extreme investing in Africa

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The Arab Spring, for all its democratic and political virtues,  put a big economic dent in the side of participating North African countries, particularly when it came to attracting foreign investment in 2011.

According to a recent UNCTAD report:

Sub-Saharan Africa drew FDI not only to its natural resources, but also to its emerging consumer markets as the growth outlook remained positive. Political uncertainty in North Africa deterred investment in that region.

So far, so logical. Except that simply can't be all there is to it.

Why? Because plenty of African countries marred by political uncertainty have succeeded in attracting inward FDI.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is a good example. According to political risk consultancy Maplecroft, the country ranks as "extreme" in its risk index for governance framework, regulatory and business environment, conflict and security and human rights and society. It scores 0.00 on business integrity and corruption. And yet in 2011 it attacted over a billion dollars in FDI, according to the UNCTAD report.

from Africa News blog:

South Sudan’s era of prosperity?

Many South Sudanese hoped the country's emergence as the world's newest nation would begin an era of prosperity, but the country has remained mired in disputes with its northern neighbour over oil, the border and a many other issues.

The landlocked South shut off its oil production in January, instantly erasing 98 percent of state revenues, as part of a dispute with Sudan over how much it should pay to export crude using pipelines and other infrastructure in the north.

from The Human Impact:

Asylum tales: London museum hosts a tour with a twist

What connects a brass medallion to Leonardo da Vinci's diary, a Japanese sake kettle and an ornate wooden pulpit that once belonged to the Sultan of Qa'itbay?

All are housed in London's Victoria and Albert Museum, and all were chosen by Sudanese asylum seeker Marwa Fedail on one of a series of special tours giving new meaning to old treasures.

from The Human Impact:

Invest in women in conflict zones to promote change

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Where would you put your money as an investor? A leading campaigner against gender-based violence says there is only one answer - invest it in women in conflict zones.

"Conflict zones have the biggest potential for change," Eve Ensler, founder of V-Day, a global movement to end violence against women, told delegates at the Skoll World Forum for Social Entrepreneurship in Oxford last week.

from Why Nations Fail:

The unending warfare in Africa

Sierra Leone is not the only African nation that has been ravaged by civil war. They have been all too common, and any explanation for African poverty that does not come to grips with these all-too-frequent civil wars is bound to be incomplete. Though the number and death tolls of African civil wars have been declining, they are still ongoing in many parts of the subcontinent, including in various parts of the Niger Delta, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, and of course Somalia.

A recent book by William Reno, Warfare in Independent Africa (see here), is a must-read for anybody wishing to understand the never-ending cycle of civil wars in Africa. Among the many useful theses in the book the most notable concerns the transformation of the nature of civil wars in Africa — or more appropriately in sub-Saharan Africa. Reno identifies earlier movements as anti-colonial and majority rule rebels, who fought colonial powers throughout the subcontinent and minority rule governments (e.g., in South Africa, Namibia, and Zimbabwe). Consistent with the vicious circle of extractive institutions and the pattern in Sierra Leone we saw in an earlier blog (see here), the successful rebels simply took control of the extractive institutions themselves. Thus it was natural that another round of rebellions, led by what Reno calls reform rebels, aimed at replacing these regimes would follow.  Typical examples include Yoweri Museveni in Uganda and Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. But the vicious circle was not to be broken so easily, and these rebels, when successful, did not change institutions underpinning poverty and the widespread inequities in the subcontinent.

from Global Investing:

The missing barrels of oil

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Where are the missing barrels of oil, asks Barclays Capital.

Oil inventories in the United States rose sharply last week, with demand for oil products  such as gasoline at the lowest in 15 years and crude stockpiles at the highest since last September. Americans, pinched in the wallet, are clearly cutting back on fuel use.

But worldwide, the inventories picture is different -- Barclays calculates in  fact that oil stocks are around 50 million barrels below the seasonal average. And sustainable spare capacity in the market is less than 2 million barrels per day. What that means is that the world has "extremely limited buffers to absorb any one of the series of potential geopolitical mishaps." (Barclays writes)

from Africa News blog:

Dancing to the last beats of a united Sudan

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Half way through the evening you felt this is what a united Sudan could have been like.

It was an engagement party thrown by a beaming, white-robed Khartoum patriarch with pulsing music provided by Orupaap, a group of mostly southern musicians and dancers.

from Environment Forum:

Food for thought

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USA/Feeling hungry? Maybe that's because of all the news, from around the world, about food today -- how much people produce, how much more they need, how much it's going to cost, how much of an effect it will have on climate change, and vice versa.

Starting in Washington, the U.S. Agriculture Department reported that American stockpiles of corn and soybeans will shrink to surprisingly low levels this year, which sent grain prices soaring to 30-month highs. Bad weather in places like Australia and rising world demand led by China are partly responsible for cutting crop inventories around the globe.

from FaithWorld:

Bashir plans Islamic law if Sudan splits, defends flogging woman

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sudan (Photo: Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir addresses a rally in Gedaref, December 19, 2010/stringer)

Sudan will adopt an Islamic constitution if the south splits away in a referendum next month, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir said on Sunday. The vote on independence for south Sudan is scheduled to start in three weeks and was promised in a 2005 peace deal that ended a civil war between the mainly Muslim north and the south, where most follow traditional beliefs and Christianity.

"If south Sudan secedes, we will change the constitution and at that time there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity," the president told supporters at a rally in the eastern city of Gedaref. "Sharia (Islamic law) and Islam will be the main source for the constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official language," he said.

from Africa News blog:

Multi-tasking Sudan’s conflicts

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sudanunWhen I first began to cover Darfur in 2003 - nobody was interested. The story was all about the north-south peace talks in Naivasha. "Where's Darfur again - is that in the south?" I would often hear.

But once Darfur's conflict stalled the Naivasha talks to end Africa's longest civil war, and reports of appalling atrocities in Sudan's west began to seep into the public domain, Darfur became the only story. It overshadowed even the historic 2005 north-south peace deal named "comprehensive" because the negotiators said it would resolve all of Sudan's problems.

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