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G7 finance ministers meet London on Friday and Saturday. Since they and many more met in Washington only three weeks ago and not much has changed since, it’s tempting to ask what is the point of this British gathering. There have been mutterings from some of the travelling delegations to that effect.
If there is an angle, it is the unusual focus on financial regulation (usually not part of the Group of Seven’s remit) with some feeling that more than four years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, efforts to put in place structures to prevent similar events spinning out of control in future are flagging. That puts the euro zone’s fluctuating plans for a banking union firmly in focus, which in turn puts German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble right in the spotlight.
On Tuesday, he said elements of a banking union would have to be pursued without lengthy and arduous treaty change, something he’d previously said would be necessary. Was that a softening of his position? Er, probably not. More likely, the subtext is that because treaty change takes too long, Berlin will pursue only those elements of banking union that don’t require it – i.e. bloc-wide regulation yes, but forget about a bank resolution mechanism let alone a joint deposit guarantee.
That would be a pale imitation of what was proposed nearly a year ago and wouldn’t provide the sort of structure that would foster confidence that a future financial crisis could be contained. If so, Schaeuble can expect some strong representations from his G7 counterparts over the next couple of days as he did at the G20 meeting in Washington.
from Expert Zone:
(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The BRICS summit in Durban last week, which brought the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa together, is best recalled for the rich visual imagery that Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked. Putin suggested that the five countries were like the lion, elephant, buffalo, leopard and rhinoceros. Notwithstanding the normative vision for the developing world that was outlined by the leaders, the subtext is a logical extension of this animal metaphor.
There are signs of headway from Athens where we have just snapped a government source saying the IMF accepts Greek debt is “viable” if it falls to 124 percent of GDP in 2020, rather than the 120 that it had previously decreed was the maximum sustainable level.. The source said fresh measures have been found to reduce debt to 130 percent of GDP by 2020, leaving another 10 billion euros to be covered.
At the latest failed meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday, we confirmed that the EU/IMF/ECB troika had calculated Greek debt would only fall to 144 percent of GDP in 2020 without further measures, meaning roughly 50 billion euros needed to be knocked of Greece’s debt pile. A report circulated at the meeting concluded (apologies for the number soup) that debt could only be cut to 120 percent of GDP in eight years if euro zone government agreed to take a writedown on their loans, which they will not do for now.
The EU budget summit, which could turn into a marathon as it tries to nail down monies for the next seven years, begins today. With the euro zone repeatedly failing to nail down a Greek deal, the EU would be well advised not to let this negotiation fall apart too. Having said that, there is little sign of great concern in market pricing – presumably the ECB’s pledge to buy government bonds in whatever amount it takes to steady the bloc continues to suppress investor nerves and short sellers.
Net contributors to the budget including Germany, France and Britain want to cut 100 billion euros from the European Commission's draft budget proposal, but differ over which areas to cut. Meanwhile, the main beneficiaries of EU funding such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic oppose cuts. The meeting is intended to lay the groundwork for political agreement on the budget by EU leaders at their final summit of 2012 in December. It will last two days, maybe more and it could well be that no agreement is reached. Officials say only a cut in real terms – for the first time ever – is likely to do the trick.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy secured an overall majority in regional elections in Galicia over the weekend but in the Basque country, the nationalists were the big winners. These polls have been identified as one reason why Rajoy has held off asking for sovereign aid and Catalan elections still loom next month. Rajoy is likely to have to offer politically poisonous pension reforms in return for outside assistance.
So far, we seem to be no closer to a bailout request, which could then trigger European Central Bank intervention, and with 10-year yields having dropped more than two percentage points from a 7.5 percent peak since Mario Draghi’s vow to do whatever it takes to save the euro, one could reasonably ask why Madrid should be in a hurry. Some officials are saying Spain could quite comfortably wait until the turn of the year, leaving a prolonged period of limbo.
The day before an EU summit that probably won’t come up with anything decisive in crisis management. If that sounds rather underwhelming beware. There’s an awful lot of jockeying for position over when Spain will seek sovereign help, the Greek troika talks continue to look messy with time running very short and the leaders would be very well advised to demonstrate that their longer-term plans for closer integration are not running out of puff – item one on that agenda is getting plans for step one of a banking union back on track.
We could get a decent crack at this today with a number of EU leaders, including Angela Merkel, Spain’s Mariano Rajoy and Greek premier Antonis Samaras, gathering in Bucharest for a centre-right political congress.
from Global Investing:
Here's a view of next week from our team's weekly news planner:
Not unlike England’s performance at the Euro 2012 football tourament, EU summit expectations have been successfully lowered in advance by all concerned and so it will be hard to disappoint as a result!
The gnawing realization in markets is that the really game-changing steps by Germany on some form of debt pooling now look unlikely before next year’s general election there and so investors may have to hang on tight to what can get done in the meantime if the system is to hold together. Yet for all the understandable policy scepticism, there are a lot of big changes on the table -- from banking union, more flexible budget-cutting programs, infrastructure growth pushes, a roadmap at least to euro bonds and a euro finance ministry and the launch of the ESM next month (barring a last-minute torpedo from the German constitutional court at least). It may be a little too easy to dismiss all that is happening just because there’s not going to be a grand instant fix ready for Monday. The ESM alone should have powerful stabilization powers for markets at least. What’s more, Merkel says ”over my dead body” to Euro bonds in one breath, and then “when conditions are right” in another. Assuming she’s referring to her political body, then even these may not be a million miles away.
Cyprus became the fifth euro zone country to seek a bailout last night though its needs – maybe up to 10 billion euros – will not put a dent in the currency bloc’s resources. We’re still waiting to see precisely how much money Spain will take for its banks of the 100 billion euros offered. Moody’s cut the ratings of 28 of 33 Spanish banks by one to four notches last night, an inevitable consequence of the sovereign downgrade earlier this month.
Markets seems to have decided that they will be disappointed by the crunch summit at the end of the week. There was a somewhat discordant meeting between the big four euro zone leaders on Friday, with Germany’s Merkel refusing to budge in key areas, but she and French President Francois Hollande have the chance to strike a more positive note when they meet bilaterally on Wednesday abnd hot off the press we have a meeting of the finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy and Spain this evening -- so maybe there is a concerted effort to get on the same page.
from Africa News blog:
The African Union has moved its July summit to the Ethiopian capital after Malawi blocked the attendance of Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), the bloc said
Malawi last month asked the African Union to prevent Bashir from taking part in the event, saying his visit would have "implications" for its aid-dependent economy.
The European Commission leapt off the fence yesterday proposing many of the policies – a bank deposit guarantee fund, longer for Spain to make the cuts demanded of it and allowing the euro zone rescue fund to lend to banks direct (though there were some mixed messages on that) – that would buy a considerable period of time to move towards its ultimate goal: the sort of fiscal union that would make the euro zone a credible bloc much harder for the markets to attack.
The proposals would go a long way to removing Spain from the firing line, and suggests Brussels at least has decided it now urgently needs to shore the country up. But Germany opposition to all three still appears to be steadfast.