By Dominic Elliott
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
When the Bank of England decides to start hiking interest rates, it may find that its standard 25 and 50 basis point interest rate moves of old are too blunt a tool for Britain's delicately-poised economic recovery.
A perfect storm seems to be brewing for the Russian rouble. It has tumbled to four-year lows against a euro-dollar basket. Against the dollar, it has lost around 7 percent so far this year, faring better than many other emerging currencies. But signs are that next year will bring more turmoil.
It's generally accepted these days that emerging equities are cheap and that value-focused investors should consider buying. But some disagree -- analysts at UBS say the alleged cheapness of EM equities rings hollow when you look at the return-on-equity on emerging companies. They don't dispute that the market has de-rated significantly on price-earnings and price-book metrics (at 10.5 times and 1.5 times respectively, they are well below long-term averages). But they argue that these have not been excessive when compared to the decline in profitability. Emerging return-on-equity pre-crisis was usually higher than developed. Once at a lofty 17 percent, emerging ROE now languishes at 12.7 percent, almost on par with ROE for developed companies. Check out this graphic:
As in many countries with memories of hyperinflation and currency collapse, Turkey's middle class have tended to hold at least part of their savings in hard currency. But unlike in Russia and Argentina, Turkish savers' propensity to save in dollars has on occasion proved helpful to companies and the central bank. That's because many Turks, rather than just accumulating dollars, have evolved into savvy players of exchange rate swings and often use sharp falls in the lira to sell their dollars and buy back the local currency. Hence Turks' hard currency bank deposits, estimated at between $70-$100 billion -- on a par with central bank reserves -- have acted as a buffer of sorts, stabilising the lira when it falls past a certain level.
Remember UBS's attempt to play what it considered a get-out-of-jail-free card in the megabillions litigation over mortgage-backed securities UBS and more than a dozen other banks sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? UBS's lawyers at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom came up with an argument that could have decimated claims against all of the banks: When Congress passed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 and established the Federal Housing Finance Agency as a conservator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, UBS said, lawmakers explicitly extended the one-year statute of limitations on federal securities claims - but neglected to extend, or even mention, the three-year statute of repose. UBS argued that FHFA's suits, which in the aggregate asserted claims on more than $300 billion in MBS, were untimely because they were filed after the statute of repose expired.