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from Breakingviews:

Japan’s low unemployment masks overtime slump

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The canary of Japan’s demand slump is singing “overtime”. The country’s low unemployment and high vacancy rates paint a misleading picture of tranquility. A more accurate gauge of the growing nervousness in the economy is the shrinking market for extra working hours.

The jobless rate in August was just 3.5 percent, the best the country has seen since the 1997 Asian crisis. The ratio of job offers to applicants is at its highest since June 1992. Yet an index of “non-scheduled” work has turned sharply lower since the sales tax rate went up on April 1.

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This is worrying news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose efforts at ridding Japan of entrenched deflation are beginning to falter after showing initial promise.

from Breakingviews:

Ecuador economic ‘miracle’ meets maturity

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Turn on state television here, and within an hour or so a public service message will appear extolling the “Ecuadorean miracle” of President Rafael Correa. The advertisements highlight big new infrastructure projects and endorsements by experts, even an American or two.

from The Great Debate:

It’s harder to reach the American dream if you’re reaching all alone

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“Hours of chaos” is how the New York Times described the work reality of more and more Americans. It highlighted Jannette Navarra, a Starbucks barrista, who is regularly forced to work part-time with fluctuating hours. She usually gets her work schedule three days ahead of the workweek, so she is always scrambling to arrange childcare for her son. Any hope Navarra has of advancing by pursuing a degree is shattered by her inability to schedule classes.

These sorts of lousy jobs are the increasing reality for many American workers. They are labeled “contingent” workers -- part-time, temporary, on contract, on call. They generally earn lower wages than fulltime employees, with little or no benefits, and constant insecurity. They now represent one-third, perhaps as much as 40 percent of the workforce.

from Edward Hadas:

Time to retire unemployment

Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Give Janet Yellen credit. The chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve is keen to use monetary policy to help get more people into good jobs. Her priority – work is more important than finance – is reflected in the subject of this week’s get-together for the world’s central bankers: “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics.” One item should be on the agenda of the distinguished guests at Jackson Hole, Wyoming: how to replace the concept of unemployment.

from MacroScope:

All eyes on Putin

Russia's President Vladimir Putin talks to reporters during a meeting in Brasilia

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his top security officials prior to visiting annexed Crimea on Thursday with members of his government.

One way or another, with Ukrainian government forces encircling the main pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk, matters are coming to a head. Putin must decide whether to up his support for the separatists in east Ukraine or back off.

from Breakingviews:

Euro zone’s biggest problem is debt, not slow growth

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Suppose that the euro zone economy was exactly the same as it is now, except that the ratio of sovereign debt to GDP was 9 percent instead of 92 percent. In that alternative reality, recent economic data would be depressing, but not worrying.

from The Great Debate:

$18 billion in job training = lots of trained unemployed people

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President Barack Obama told Americans in his July 19 weekly address that every worker deserves to know that “if you lose your job, your country will help you train for an even better one.” A nice sentiment -- and politically safe. It's just the wrong answer. Those “better jobs” don't exist, and training doesn’t create jobs. Despite all that, every year the U.S. government spends billions of dollars on job training, with little impact.

In 2007, then-candidate Obama visited Janesville, Wis., location of the oldest operating General Motors plant in America. Echoing his current promise to support unemployed Americans through job training, Obama proclaimed, “I believe that, if our government is there to support you, this plant will be here for another hundred years.” However, two days before Christmas and just about a month before Obama’s inauguration, the plant stopped production of SUVs, which made up the bulk of what was built there, throwing 5,000 people out of work. This devastated the town, because most residents either worked in the plant or in a business that depended on people working in the plant. Congress paid for a $2-million retraining program, using state community colleges the way the government once used trade schools, a century ago, to teach new immigrants the skills they needed to work at GM.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Be not afraid of more bond-market rallies

After the world’s most boring jobs report in history (seriously, misses consensus by 1,000, unemployment and wage growth in-line with expectations, and revisions over the last two months amount to a total decline of 6,000 jobs, which is a pittance), the bond market is catching a bit of a bid again. That shouldn’t be a surprise given the way this market is still taking its cues from the European bond market, which is soaring on what would otherwise be a quiet Friday. (Those of you who read Richard Leong’s story yesterday noting the likely rally in bonds post-jobs would have been all over this – just sayin’.)

It’s not going to be long before Spain’s 10-year yield falls through the U.S. 10-year yield – the spread has narrowed to about 6-7 basis points and at one point was around 3 basis points before the jobs figures. Even though the in-line figures could argue for higher rates, the report doesn’t change the consensus on the economy all that much and allows fixed income to concentrate on supply and relative valuation issues – and those point to yields remaining under pressure. Mark Grant of Southwest Securities lays it out well on a lot of issues in a comment this morning, but very specifically, he points out that “money from Asia and the Middle East is going to come pouring into the American market because of the yields here versus all of Europe. When the French 5 year yield is 304% less than the American one something is going to give and the ECB will not permit that answer to be a higher French yield.”

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Despite election results, reason still rules Europe

anatole -- french student

When can a vote of 25 percent be described as a “stunning victory” or even a “political earthquake”?

According to the European establishment, it’s when these votes go to a rabble of odd-ball extremists, ranging from overt racists and even disciples of Adolf Hitler to unreconstructed Stalinists and comically naïve anarchists.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

No reason for these stock market jitters

anatole -- unhappy trader

“Sell in May and go away.”

This stock market adage has served investors well four years in a row. Every year since 2010, stock markets around the world have suffered significant corrections between a high reached in May and a low in the summer or early autumn: by 15 percent in 2010, 19 percent in 2011, 9 percent in 2012 and 5 percent in 2013, as gauged by the Standard & Poor’s 500.

Given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its highest level ever on April 30, while the S&P 500 peaked less than 1 percent shy of its all-time record, it may seem sensible to follow the seasonal adage. Regardless of one’s views about the long-term prospects for the world economy.

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